Methodological question

[Kronheim]

I've noticed a bit of a pseudo-middle opportunity today and I'd like some advice on it.

The game is NYI@CAR
Olympic has the line CAR -0.5+130
Sportingbet has the line NYI -0.5+140

So, if I play both sides, and the game does not result in a draw, I have a minimum 30% profit on the game. Of course if the game does go to a draw, then I'm out 2 units. My question is: given that around 12%-15% of NHL games result in draws (I think?), is this a good bet over the long term? I know you can't expect the same lines to appear in the future, so projecting this might be tough. I've never been too good at statistics so if anyone has any insight into this one I'd appreciate it.

Thanks

Kron

 

[prospector]

given OT play and these two teams ...

i would make the two wagers going against a tie.

 

[prospector]

incidently, here is the line at SportsInteraction:

NY Islanders +0.5 -150 Carolina -0.5 +130
NY Islanders ML -110 Carolina ML -110

 

[KotysDad]

Kronheim,

Statistically, at 15% ties you will lose money in the long run, but at 14% you will make money. So the break-even point is somewhere between 14-15%.

 

[katts]

I agree Kotysdad..

I have a minimum 30% profit on the game.

Wrong. Many people make this mistake. Divide the whole thing by 2 since you have a bet on both sides and will lose at least one of the 2. So that's about 17%.

The answer to your question: By wagering 1 unit on NYI -0.5 +140 and 1.04 units on Car -0.5 +130, it comes to the same as wagering 2.04 units to win 0.36 that the game will NOT end as a draw.

Assuming that the probability for a draw is about 13%, that would be an average profit of (0.87*0.36 - 0.13*2.04)/2.04 = 2.35% of your investment.. not bad but not that good either.

Edited for serious brain bug

[This message has been edited by katts (edited 10-26-2001).]

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

Good point Katts!!


------------------
SEPT 11, 2001. THE DAY THAT WILL NEVER BE FORGOTTEN.

R.I.P. TO ALL VICTIMS
We are in this together

 

[Kronheim]

Very nice, thank you for the replies katts and kotysdad. I have learned something today!

Cheers, Kron

 

[prospector]

the numbers that really matters is the percentage of times THESE TWO teams face an overtime win or loss situation and still end up in a tie.

last year
NYI Games-82 Won-21 Lost-51 Tie-7 OTLoss-3 Pts-52
CAR Games-82 Won-38 Lost-32 Tie-9 OTLoss-3 Pts-88

Season Average - # Ties/Team-10.16 #OTLoss/Team-4.06

 

[prospector]

to clarify:

Season Average All Teams- # Ties/Team-10.16 #OTLoss/Team-4.06

 

[Kronheim]

With due respect prospector, I appreciate your input, but I fail to see how relying on past performance is going to produce winners by this system. As we all know, teams change from year to year. Just because NYI had X number of draws and/or OT wins/losses last season doesn't really mean squat in the context of the current season...or at least, it's probable you are overstating their importance. IMO, using such stats will probably lead you astray more often than not. Feel free to elucidate on your point if I've missed something. As I said, I'm not so good with math.

Kron

 

[katts]

IMHO.. not a good approach prospector... the sample is just not big enough. And like Kronheim said, teams change.

 

[prospector]

all i'm saying is that in hockey, some game match-ups are less likely to create a tie scenario than others.

i play in a hockey pool where you predict the winning team by predicting the final score after 60 minutes. OT is not included. i've been in the pool for a number of years.
you get:
2 points for a winner.
3 points for picking a tie.
4 EXTRA points for correctly picking the exact score.

getting the correct score on a tie is a HUGE bonus !

(there is no extra points for picking Dogs - like in the real world

)

anyway, you find yourself looking for ways to improve picking that outcome first.

now, in last nights matchup, NYI WANTED to WIN ! the press has made a big deal of their season opening record. and i think it is a huge motivator at this point for a team that finished last, last year.

but the rewards seeking a tie are much greater in my pool than in the real world. however, i will take the 10%-15% if its a gaurantee every time before i lay the 100% on the gamble. (i know ... i know ... gaurantees don't come easily in this game. but i do think they exist sometimes)

someone posted a site that listed the lines of a bunch of sportsbooks. i will keep track of this sort of system if someone can find that link for me.

i too am always looking for the mathematical loophole to beat the man. even if it is only 10%-15%. if we can find one, your money doubles pretty damn quickly.

 

[prospector]

btw, that's why i usually pick "all the games" when i post my picks ... i'm doing in the hockey pool anyway.

the pool is for Thurs, Fri and Sat games only.

i'm in 3rd place out of 48 players.
(before last night

)

 

[prospector]

btw, that's why i usually pick "all the games" when i post my picks ... i'm doing it in the hockey pool anyway.

the pool is for Thurs, Fri and Sat games only.

i'm in 3rd place out of 48 players.
(before last night

)