Michigan 400

[Looselugs]

one play so far in qualifying,

Denny Hamlin over Kurt Busch +100

other leans in qual
Reed Sorrenson over David Stremme -105
Kyle Busch over Jimmy Johnson +100
Juan Monoya over Elliot Sadler -125


Still early in the week and I don`t see any of these lines making major move.

One early lean to win is Matt Kenseth 6-1.

Any thoughts?

 

[kegray1]

Got 2 longshots for ya!!!

Greg Biffle(50-1) for 50. Biffle last 5 races at Michigan before this year 1st,1st,6th,4th,7th. He is 15th in the chase(200 points from 12th). He has to do something this race and with some luck he climbs into the chase. He was 38th earlier this year but had issues with the car. HOW CAN YOU NOT PLAY HIM AT 50-1 WITH THAT RECENT HISTORY HERE??

Small Play on Reed Sorenson(100-1) for 10.
Finished 5th and 8th here last year.

Big PLAY CARL EDWARDS(9-1) for 100 Loves this track and does very well at it.He is VERY excited about the new car he is going to be in this Sunday. He was awesome in June.Went from 1st to 27th for speeding.Took 40 laps to get back in 1st and held it.

Adding MARTIN TRUEX(15-1) for 50.He was awesome back in June as well even with really bad luck.Got the lead and then fell back when he tried a 2 tire change. Was then taken out by #12 with no damage and had to go to the back.Fought his way back into 2nd and was Edwards only competition.

FASTEST 2nd PRACTICE:
1. CARL EDWARDS
2. GREG BIFFLE
3. MARTIN TRUEX
THAT IS WHAT I LIKE TO SEE!!!!!

 

[kegray1]

Remember what happened last time I said take BIFFLE.

http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=262338

 

[toastonastick]

C. Mears +2850 one unit.

 

[william13]

my long shots ...

my long shots ...

kasey kahne +6000
kasey to hit top 5 +1100 for 2 units.

kasey been bad most of the year . we all know he going to win another race . here the spot to take a wack ... michigan

kasey has 4 top 5 outa 7 starts and a win ..

he using the same aero set up as 06 where he had a win and a 4th place .. hoping he qualifies well and finds top ten power . he may find a good line to bring it home .

it a long shot but one of these races they are going to hit that sweet set up .. i just hoping i'm on it when they do .

will be at the race sunday with prerace pit passes ..
should have some good pictures to post ..g/l

 

[william13]

kasey starts 3rd ...:SIB

 

[william13]

:Yep: nice call on denny lugs !!

 

[kegray1]

Some good longshots were thrown out in this thread.
I hope people jumped on them when they were offered.
Biffle at 50-1 starts 2nd.Odds are going to crash on him. I think he will go off around 15-1 on raceday.
I grabbed Kahne @75-1 for 20. He rolls off 3rd. His odds are going to crash as well.
Thanks. Some good pointers in this thread.
Hope one of them steals the race.

 

[Looselugs]

Nice pulls with Kahne and Biffle guys! No matter what happens Sunday you still got a hell of a shot. As these odds will plummet.Excellent work!


Thanks william,enjoy the race man. If Kahne wins watch your beer, the guy sitting below you might not like your brew on his hat. :mj07:

 

[Morris]

Nice call on Hamlin and Kyle. Gl on the race!! See you guys on Raceday!!

 

[kegray1]

Grabbing 3 plays on the Busch Race:
Carl Edwards(8-1) for 50--Like the track and is so far up in this thing that he is pushing it hard.
Kasey Kahne(22-1) for 20--Why not take him in both races with good odds.He is way OVERDUE for a win in something.
SMOKE(15-1) for 30---Odds to good to pass on.
Greg Biffle(12-1) for 50.-Runs well at Michigan in any car.

 

[kegray1]

As expected:
Biffle is now 12-1
Kahne is 18-1.
Both are 10-1 at my other site.

 

[Looselugs]

It is raining at Michigan International Speedway, the forecast is as follows:
A steady rain. The rain will be heavy at times. High 64F. Winds ESE at 5 to 10 mph. Additional rainfall around 2 inches. Localized flooding is possible. On Monday the forecast: Periods of rain with a few thunderstorms likely. High 67F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80%. 1 to 2 inches of rain expected.
NASCAR Now reports the latest NASCAR will try to start the race on Sunday is 3:30pm/et but could call the race sooner if the rain doesn't look like it will let up, nothing has been announced as of 11:00am/et. If rained out today, look for the starting time to be 11:00am/et on Monday.

 

[kegray1]

This is a tough race to bet if they go today.
THERE IS NO CHANCE THEY GOT THE DISTANCE IF THEY RUN TODAY.
Little to no windows tomorrow or even Tuesday so they will try to get something in today.
Afraid to play,but going to anyway.
H2H:
TRUEX(-110) over Kurt Busch for 220
HAMLIN(-120) over Kyle Busch for 120
SADLER(+115) over B. Labonte for 100

 

[Looselugs]

Like this one,

Jeff Green over Johnny Sauter -110


like your Hamlin over Kyle kegray,


gl
lugs

 

[kegray1]

What do you think about the Dodge cars.
I think Sadler may be solid today.He should be better than Labonte.

I love Green(-110) over Sauter adding for 220.
Good find.


THIS RACE IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN TODAY.

 

[Looselugs]

I just don`t know about that matchup,Labonte in under a new crew chief.Both seem to have about the same average speeds based on the laps they turned.I just left it alone but don`t let me talk you out of it.

Try a small parley at 25-1

Jeff Green over Johnny Sauter win
Montoya over McMurray Win
Blaney over Vickers Win
Newman over Dale Jr Loss
Kurt Busch over Kyle Busch Win

gl
lugs

 

[william13]

what a shit day at the track ... monday dosent look any better ... not even sure i will try to go as they have a 80 % chance fo rain :s1:

 

[kegray1]

Monday looks like less than 1% chance of running it.

Tuesday doesn't look great either(30-40%).
No way would they run this Wednesday with Bristol on Sat. night.

I think they squeeze in 101 laps before Tuesday ends.

 

[kegray1]

Damn I hate the #2.
Always have,always will.
Screwed me on the H2H over Truex and kept my Truex to win bet from hitting.