Couple of things to keep in mind here; Mich St was 10 or 21 from beyond the arc and +15 in rebounds vs Minnesota....and still lost.
Indiana shot only 28% from the field (including 1 of 14 on 3s) and still won. Indiana will rebound better than Minnesota did and they will defend the 3 better, and that should nullify the 2 Spartan strengths, IMO. Michigan State's ranking is based primarily on their reputation and recent history. With home court worth 5, LV must feel these teams are pretty even.