One lesson I learned from last season was to be VERY conscious of lines that seemed too good to be true. The usual culprit is the always-enticing road fav.
It never fails...the lines come out...I say damn that looks good...I lay money...and pow...right in keyster. I already let it happen again this year with Oregon the other night vs. UMASS. I saw Oregon play Louisville at home and they looked like world-beaters. Yet, first time out on the road (as a fav.) they get beat straight up by Montanna.
It's hard to lay off road favs sometimes because sometimes you can get a cash cow. For example, last year UK came into Columbia to play the Gamecocks as only 1 point favs. I KNEW this was too low and nailed it as my biggest play of the year. Sure enough, UK won by 30+ points. But more times than not I ended up getting screwed on the road fav.
My advice is simple...beware of the road fav. There will be times this year when I will take the road fav, even knowing its probably gonna cost me money...but sometimes I just can't help myself.