mj says...(wednesday)

[mj]

Here are my plays...

magic -2.5
line is dropping, that?s good for me, I?ll wait to see If I can grab it at -2, or -1.5

twolves -2.5
the line is going up, but who knows...

 

[gsp]

mj, you have got it backwards. You don't want Vegas helping you. My advice is to wait as long as you can before making a move. Good luck anyway you go.

 

[mj]

I?m probably making a rookie mistake here. I do understand what you?re trying to tell me. But that?s what probably happened to me yesterday, I bet on what everybody was on and Vegas screwed me somehow. I still can?t swallow what happened yesterday with the lakers vs the bulls. But I learned my lesson, you can be sure about that. I should probably start to look into the least noticed plays. The games that nobody is paying any attention to. But you have more experience than I do in this, so I?m probably gonna sit this day out, and wait for your plays...

 

[gsp]

mj, yesterday, the line in the Lakers game opened at 9 and stayed there. You can't go by what your local gives you. What made me leary was that with everybody going on LA it didn't move. That means that Vegas is getting what they want. If you like the fav and the line starts going up (against you), that's usually a good sign. This is not college football, it's the NBA. The average guy on the street don't move these lines (public). It's the big money co-alitions and they know a hell of lot more about what's happening than we do. Only your highest profile TV games draw enough street money to make any difference. Good luck today.

 

[MrChristo]

A good example today seems to be Atlanta/Bucks.

Around 75% of people seem to be on Milwaukee, but the line has actually gone to Atlanta -1.

Someone seems to think Atlanta is the play

 

[mj]

Thanks a bunch Joe, I?m still learning a lot... Hopefully after a while of reading your posts, some of your knowledge will pass on.
Hell I?m just one of those average street guys, and don?t lay that much dough, I usually bet 50 bucks total everytime I visit my sportsbook. It?s just that yesterday I went down 200. I?m still doing ok, but I need to get those back, with patience that is....

 

[mj]

MrChristo: correct me If I?m wrong, but that?s kind of a system and it usually works right? When ever more than 70% of the people is on something you should go against that right??? like in atlanta for example... as you pointed

 

[gsp]

mj, I already picked up on the move in Atl. Mil was still in contention until that happened. Don't mean Mil won't get there, Just means that I'm not interested. If I was already on Atl, I would love it.

 

[MrChristo]

I don't use it as any kind of 'system' myself, mj, (I did not bet on Atlanta today for example) but as gsp said, it would certainly put me off playing Milwaukee.

If the line moves against 70%+ of public opinion it means a) The books are making a stand, or b) There is some serious money coming in for the other side.

Milwaukee may well win tonight, but 'Vegas' wins more than it loses

Good luck with your picks, mj