ML Parlay.....Playing with History

[JCoverS]

Ever since this wild card playoff thing started back in 1990, these games have been dominated by home teams, especially SU.

Since 1990, NEVER have the home teams done worse than 2-2 SU. In fact, in all but 2 years out of 14, the home teams have gone 3-1 SU. Now that is certainly some home team favoritism!

So.....with both Saturday games going to the road team, I feel pretty confident that the following "home team ML parlay" will hit tomorrow. One things for sure.....I have history on my side and that is not always a bad thing. Also, it might actually be fun watching the games tomorrow while not even having to worry about the pointspread. Just bring me the W, Indy and GB!

Colts ML -500 parred to Pack ML -270

3.6 units risked to win 2.32 units

Good Luck to All,

-JC

 

[gman2]

im totally mind-fu.ckeded right now.

the only nfl game i liked all week was minnesota.

but i had to sit through a saturday of watching road dogs perform very well and both eventually win outright.

now im starting to second-guess my minny play and thinkin about not even bothering.

are the games mutually exclusive and independent from one another? yes.

but like you said, history says its unlikely the home teams continue to fail in this round.

no clue what im gonna do.

gl jc. good to see you back around.

 

[JCoverS]

Yeah, I know what you mean, gman. Even after I made this play I was starting to second guess my rationale behind it. I am putting alot of stock in history and the outcome of today's games. Perhaps not the soundest of reasonings, since like you said, these games ARE independent events. Having said that though, it has been my experience that history repeats itself more often than not. I also didn't wager a single dime on the NFL games today. That is actually part of the reason this play stood out to me here. I fully expect the outcomes of these wild-card games to "get back to normal" on Sunday. I know that nothing is a sure thing and this just might be the "atypical" year of the road team, but I like my chances with this wager.

-JC

 

[IX_Bender]

Really a strong example of what both posters said.

Every game is independent, and while history is relevant, its often that this time of the year the normal bettor finds himself saying things like. "This hasnt happened in XX years, etc."
You handicap games as they come. I cant tell you how many schmoes are at the bar thinking over their 6pt teaser counting on Green Bay to 'win'

Too many people get caught up in what happened in the early game, or bet on some team that needs a win. Just look at Minnesota choke vs. Arizona last year and what they just did AT LAMBEAU today. Id say less than 1% of bettors had Zona in last seasons finale and went out and backed Minne on the ML today. Again, just goes to show.

Respect for the cappers that posted above, but I was thinking of this thread during the game - knowing the ramefications. Dont take this post as a flame by any means, its not.

 

[gman2]

yep. i ended up playing minnesota but for not NEARLY as much as i originally intended to. i fully intended to make minnesota my biggest bet in the playoffs, as evidenced by how confident i was when the line came out and the debate i had within a thread with the opening playoff lines last sunday. so it was a good but not great win for me (like it should have been). i ended up out-thinking myself and it caused some hesitation.

 

[Rcxslam]

geez gman, I did the same exact thing....was gonna make a huge play on minny, then lowerd it cuz both dogs win outright on saturday....ended up not even taking ML....oh well...next week Im making all my picks on Friday...

 

[maverick2112]

Really a strong example of what both posters said.

Every game is independent, and while history is relevant, its often that this time of the year the normal bettor finds himself saying things like. "This hasnt happened in XX years, etc."
You handicap games as they come. I cant tell you how many schmoes are at the bar thinking over their 6pt teaser counting on Green Bay to 'win'

Too many people get caught up in what happened in the early game, or bet on some team that needs a win. Just look at Minnesota choke vs. Arizona last year and what they just did AT LAMBEAU today. Id say less than 1% of bettors had Zona in last seasons finale and went out and backed Minne on the ML today. Again, just goes to show.

Respect for the cappers that posted above, but I was thinking of this thread during the game - knowing the ramefications. Dont take this post as a flame by any means, its not.

I always get a kick out of posts like these.....".AFTER THE GAME"...........dont really think you would have let us know how "joe Schmoe" would have felt had their packers teasers tickets had cashed.............and one thing about history is that sometimes it works......like history says the winner of the super bowl covers the pointspread something like 89% of the time......so history does repeat itself in certain situations.....

You can almost makes comments like this after any game.......I mean just this week how many of us would have taken Oklahoma+35.5 ????????