Mlb 6/21

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Pittsburgh under 9 +115
Line found at Pinnacle

Neither of these teams are putting runs on the board lately. When these two teams match up they have gone under 11 times in the last 13 meetings.

The pitching match up is between Josh Fogg and Tim Redding today. Neither pitcher has particularly great numbers on the year as a whole or in their last three outings. If you look at who they have pitched against respectively in their last three games you can see more clearly why their era of recent is high. Fogg's last game was against Anaheim where he pitched a decent game going 5 innings giving up 7 hits and 2 earned runs. The game before that is where his era really got hammered. It was against Texas in Texas where he went just 4 innings, gave up 9 hits and 8 earned runs. His game before that was another decent outing. It was against the Cubs in Chicago where he went 7 innings, gave up 4 hits and 0 earned runs. If you take that Texas meltdown out of the mix he has pitched very well in his last three. He has also had a decent recent history against Houston. Back on May 4th against the Astros in Houston he went 7 innings, gave up 4 hits and 4 earned runs. The game before that was at home on April 28th where he went 7 innings, giving up 6 hits and 2 earned runs. The under has come in 7 times in the last 8 games Fogg has pitched against the Astros. The under for Tim Redding has come in 5 times out of the last 6 times he has started against Pittsburg. Redding's last three starts are similar to Fogg's in that he faced the Chicago Cubs back on June 16th and had a decent outing going 7 innings, giving up 8 hits and just 2 earned runs. The games before that he was beaten by a couple of red hot teams in Milwaukee and St. Louis. Both hit him rather hard giving up 4 and 6 runs respectively to the two teams but in Redding's career against the Pirates only once has he given up more than 3 earned runs and that was 5 back on July 21, 2003.

Both offenses are as cold as ice right now. In the month of June in the runs scored category Houston is ranked dead last scoring just 57 runs. Pittsburgh comes at number 27 scoring just 62 runs. In on base percentage in the month of June Pittsburgh comes in dead last in the National League getting on base an average of .280. Houston is getting on base at an average of .326 which finds them ranked 11th in the NL. Neither team is hitting the long ball very consistent at this time either. Pittsburg has hit 19 out putting them in 7th place and Houston has only hit 12 out making them tied for 14th place in the National League and 26th in all of the major leagues.

The bullpens for this game finds both at full strength except for the Houston Astros' Munro that will need a day off.
 

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San Diego under 8.5 -123
Line found at Pinnacle

The Padres under has come in 17 of their last 22 games. When these two teams hook up the under comes in at a ratio of 8-5.

The pitching match up in this game is not particularly favorable to bring in the under. We have Corey Fossum going against Ismail Valdez. Fossum's numbers over the season are pathetic to say the least. He is 1-5 and carries an era of 6.62 and a whip of 1.97. He has pitched 34 innings and given up 50 hits. Amazing though Arizona has come in with the under 5 times in his 7 games pitched. Valdez on the other hand while his season long numbers are not very impressive carrying an era of 4.85 and a whip of 1.37 throwing 72 innings and giving up 83 hits he has pitched a lot better of late. In his last three he has gone 19 innings giving up just 16 hits and has lowered his whip to 0.95.

My main reasons for the under in this game though is because of the two teams respective offenses. Neither team in the month of June is putting many runs up on the board. Arizona comes in 8th in the NL in that category with 81 runs scored and San Diego comes in 15th with just 58 runs scored. The long ball will likely not be a factor tonight either for Arizona in the month of June has hit just 12 home runs and that lands them in 15th place in the NL while San Diego comes in dead last with just 9 home runs. Neither teams on base percentage is nothing to write home about either. Arizona comes in at .330 while San Diego comes in at .314.Slugging percentage find San Diego dead last at .355 and Arizona 9th at .419. I don't expect either offense to put many runs up on the board tonight even with the somewhat mediocre pitching match up.

Both bullpens are in excellent shape. San Diego's bullpen comes in with an era of 2.86 and a whip of 1.27 on the year while Arizona's bullpen has struggled for most of the year. In their last 10 games they have really started to come around. Their era is 2.79 and their carrying a whip of 0.98. If and when they are needed tonight both bullpens should be able to shut down these relatively weak offenses. The under definitely looks like the call here
 
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