mlb 6\22

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Chicago Cubs +111
Listed pitchers Maddox and Marquis
Line found at Pinnacle

Both these teams come into this game red hot. The Cubs have won 8 out of their last 10 while the Cardinals have won 7 out of their last 10. The advantage for us in this one comes in the form of the starting pitching match up.

Greg Maddox has been outstanding of late. In his last three games he has gone 2-1 in 20.1 innings pitched, giving up 19 hits while carrying a minuscule whip of 0.93 and an era of 2.21. He has also had a great deal of success against the Cardinals recently winning on May 3, 2004 7-3, a game in which he went 7 innings, gave up 7 hits and just 2 earned runs. On April 23, 2003 he went 7 innings giving up just 3 hits and no runs and won that one 4-2. Marquis on the other hand has not had a lot of success facing the Cubs He is 1-2 in his career against them and his recent numbers do not find him in the greatest of current form. In his last three games he is carrying an era of 4.26, a whip of 1.47, has pitched 19 innings while giving up 25 hits and 9 earned runs.

You would think the offense would be a big advantage to the Cardinals but that is just not so in the month of June. The two teams are pretty well neck in neck in most offensive categories. In slugging percentage the Cardinals come in at .467 while the Cubs come in at .457. In the runs scored category the Cardinals come in at 115 while the Cubs come in at 89. The home run category the Cardinals have 23 and the Cubs have 22 and on base percentage the Cardinals come in at .359 while the Cubs come in at .327. While the Cardinals do have slight advantages in all the categories especially runs scored I believe the pitching match up will even this one out.

The bullpens definitely give the advantage to the Cardinals for they simply do not give runs up but if it works out the way I believe it will Maddox should pitch long enough to get us to the Cubs' set up and closer in Farnsworth and Hawkins. Both of them have been very reliable all year for the Cubs. So when you take into consideration that we do have the advantage with the Cubs in the pitching match up, that the offenses are pretty well even at this time and that the bullpens favor the Cardinals but if Maddox pitches as ling as I believe he will tonight the Cubs set up man and closer will even that category out as well. This makes the Cubs +111 with Maddox on the hill a nice play in my opinion.


Cincinnati Reds +109
Listed pitchers Wilson and Ginter
Line found at Pinnacle

The pitching match up in this one has the Reds most consistent starter getting plus money. Wilson is carrying a whip of 1.31 and an era of 3.17. Ginter has better numbers on the year with a whip of 1.16 and an era of 2.79. The difference is that the Mets have not played good ball while he has been on the hill. As a team the Mets are just 3-4 when he starts compared to the Reds 11-2 when Wilson tows the rubber.

We have big advantages in all the offensive categories. The Reds carry a slugging percentage of .450 while the Mets carry a slugging percentage of .382. The Reds have scored 94 runs so far this month compared to the Mets coming in at just 71. In home runs there is no comparison, the Mets have hit just 16 while Cincinnati is number one in the NL with 28. On base percentage finds the Reds at .341 and the Mets at just .305. All of the important offensive categories favor the Reds in this one. '

The bullpens are going to favor the Mets but I believe Cincinnati's addition of Gabe White is going top help them out a great deal. Once again, getting the Reds as an underdog with their best pitcher on the hill looks to be good value to me.
 
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