Well, I have been down for a while as I have herniated 3 discs in my lower back and have not had the energy to cap. The Vicodin is kicking in and I am feeling a bit better. Today, looking at HOU/CINCI matchup:
Oswalt (R) against Estes (L)
Line: Houston -140 / 9u-120
Last night result: CINCI/OVR
Tonight's prediction: HOU/UND (possible HOU -1.5 +115)
Reasoning:
UMP: Crawford who is a 13-12 to the OVR this year, but in the last five games he is 3-2 to the OVR. Last year, he was 9-16 to the UND and assuming the central mean will return to 50/50 on OVR/UND trends, there is precedent to argue he will be 13-13 by the end of this game considering his last 5 and his results from last year.
Crawford, when umping a HOU game, the O/U is 3-0 to the UND since 2000
Crawford, when umping a CINCI game, the O/U is 4-2-1 to the UND since 2000
Crawford, when ESTES is pitching the UND is 2-0
Crawford, when the total is set @ 9 the OVR is 5-2 (conflicting data)
WIND: Blowing in from right about with about 91% humidity (sticky air), but it may change later in the day.
Oswalt in August is a perfect 7-0 with an ERA of 1.91
Oswalt against CINCI is a perfect 5-0 with an ERA of 1.74
Estes in August is 9-9 with an ERA of 4.52
Estes against HOU is 4-2 with an ERA of 2.91
Looking at the trends of both pitchers HOME/AWAY, OVERALL SEASON, and LAST 3 games, you find that Oswalt has a much better record than Estes and both pitchers go slightly UND the total on average. Over the last 3 games, Oswalt, again shows much better MBA, W-L, and ERA in more innings pitched.
W-L ERA TEAM O/U
Hou R Oswalt(R) 7-3 3.33 7-7 6-7 (Home/Away)
14-6 3.20 15-10 11-13 (Overall)
INN ERA W/L MBA
20.2 1.74 3-0 9.14 (Last 3)
CIN S ESTES(L) 3-4 3.59 7-6 6-7 (Home/Away)
4-9 4.55 9-14 9-13 (Overall)
INN ERA W/L MBA
17.0 3.18 1-1 10.59 (Last 3)
Looking at the Player/Pitcher comparision, on paper, Boone, Larkin, and Walker appear to be the most dangerous against Oswalt when you compare their OBP and batting AVG.'s.
Boone: 4-10, 1HR, .455 OBP, .400 avg
Larkin: 4-10, .400 OBP, .400 avg.
LaRue: 2-4, .500 OBP, .500 avg.
Looking at the Player/Pitcher comparison, on paper, Bagwell, Biggio, Blum, Vizciano, and Lugo appear to be the most dangerous against Estes in terms of their OBP and batting AVG.'s.
Bagwell: 4-12, 2HR, .556 OBP, .333 avg.
Biggio: 5-15, .375 OBP, .333 avg.
BlumP: 3-7, 1 HR, . 556 OBP, .429 avg.
Lugo: 5-11, .455 OBP, .455 avg.
Vizcaino: 2-6, .333 OBP, .333 avg.
So, then, for the reasons above, I am playing HOU and the UND today.
Also, looking @ the following games:
KC -110
BOS -105
BOS UND 9 +100
SD +135
NYM -115
Take care everyone,
JD
Oswalt (R) against Estes (L)
Line: Houston -140 / 9u-120
Last night result: CINCI/OVR
Tonight's prediction: HOU/UND (possible HOU -1.5 +115)
Reasoning:
UMP: Crawford who is a 13-12 to the OVR this year, but in the last five games he is 3-2 to the OVR. Last year, he was 9-16 to the UND and assuming the central mean will return to 50/50 on OVR/UND trends, there is precedent to argue he will be 13-13 by the end of this game considering his last 5 and his results from last year.
Crawford, when umping a HOU game, the O/U is 3-0 to the UND since 2000
Crawford, when umping a CINCI game, the O/U is 4-2-1 to the UND since 2000
Crawford, when ESTES is pitching the UND is 2-0
Crawford, when the total is set @ 9 the OVR is 5-2 (conflicting data)
WIND: Blowing in from right about with about 91% humidity (sticky air), but it may change later in the day.
Oswalt in August is a perfect 7-0 with an ERA of 1.91
Oswalt against CINCI is a perfect 5-0 with an ERA of 1.74
Estes in August is 9-9 with an ERA of 4.52
Estes against HOU is 4-2 with an ERA of 2.91
Looking at the trends of both pitchers HOME/AWAY, OVERALL SEASON, and LAST 3 games, you find that Oswalt has a much better record than Estes and both pitchers go slightly UND the total on average. Over the last 3 games, Oswalt, again shows much better MBA, W-L, and ERA in more innings pitched.
W-L ERA TEAM O/U
Hou R Oswalt(R) 7-3 3.33 7-7 6-7 (Home/Away)
14-6 3.20 15-10 11-13 (Overall)
INN ERA W/L MBA
20.2 1.74 3-0 9.14 (Last 3)
CIN S ESTES(L) 3-4 3.59 7-6 6-7 (Home/Away)
4-9 4.55 9-14 9-13 (Overall)
INN ERA W/L MBA
17.0 3.18 1-1 10.59 (Last 3)
Looking at the Player/Pitcher comparision, on paper, Boone, Larkin, and Walker appear to be the most dangerous against Oswalt when you compare their OBP and batting AVG.'s.
Boone: 4-10, 1HR, .455 OBP, .400 avg
Larkin: 4-10, .400 OBP, .400 avg.
LaRue: 2-4, .500 OBP, .500 avg.
Looking at the Player/Pitcher comparison, on paper, Bagwell, Biggio, Blum, Vizciano, and Lugo appear to be the most dangerous against Estes in terms of their OBP and batting AVG.'s.
Bagwell: 4-12, 2HR, .556 OBP, .333 avg.
Biggio: 5-15, .375 OBP, .333 avg.
BlumP: 3-7, 1 HR, . 556 OBP, .429 avg.
Lugo: 5-11, .455 OBP, .455 avg.
Vizcaino: 2-6, .333 OBP, .333 avg.
So, then, for the reasons above, I am playing HOU and the UND today.
Also, looking @ the following games:
KC -110
BOS -105
BOS UND 9 +100
SD +135
NYM -115
Take care everyone,
JD
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