MLB - Aug 2, 2001

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Happy'Capper

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Nov 6, 1999
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Mets Vs. Astros OVER 11 +113
Risking 2.00 Units to Win 2.26 Units

I could either take the over at 10 1/2 and a minus tag or 11 and this plus price tag.... I believe this game warrants being able to take the higher number with these odds.... Steve Trachsel's pitch counts in the last three games combined have totalled 337, and is coming off a season high 122. Not sure how long he will go today. Away starts for him have not been successful, he has allowed 24 Earned in 42.2 IP (5.06 ERA), looks like he will get hit hard tonight as well since righties hit .316 off of him.... (Biggio, Bagwell, Alou, Hidalgo, Castillo) Pedro Astacio is making his first start for the Astros. He never was very good at homer happy Coors field, 7.12 ERA at Coors this season. Well, I ask you how much difference is there between Coors and Enron? Exactly! Now for the bullpens, these teams have played back to back ten inning contests. The Mets pen have thrown 102 pitches in those two games and the Astros pen has thrown an amazing 156 pitches. Dotel (27), Jackson (47), Wagner (33). To me this game sets up where both starters are going to have rough outings and both pens are tired.

Expos Vs. D-Backs OVER 9 -120
Risking 2.00 Units to Win 1.66 Units

Once again pitch totals come into play for me in this total play. Javier Vazquez has thrown a ton of pitches in his last four outings. (467 or 116.75 per start) He got shelled last time out vs. the Braves 6.2 IP, 10 hits, and 7 ER.... He still was left in there to throw 107 by Torborg. Why? Becuase that bullpen is about as thin as they come in the majors. Plus in this game their key lefty Graeme Lloyd has thrown four straight games and is unlikely to make an appearance in this game.... So bring on Reames and Eischen. Albie Lopez has been dissapointing this year for the most part. Overall he has a 5.61 ERA in 130 IP and opponents are hitting him at a .307 clip overall. (.331 V. Left and .287 V. Right) Also, Last evening the D-Backs pen threw 99 pitches.... OUCH....

I will see what else I find, good luck if you play these,

HC
 
H

Happy'Capper

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D-Rays Vs. Orioles OVER 9 -115
Risking 2.00 Units to Win 1.73 Units

Many of the same reasons I took the Over in last night's Rays VS. O's game apply to this Over play as well. To start the number of nine is low to begin with for an American League game with bad BP's. The reason this game will go over the total is the BullPens. I can't see either team's starter going past the sixth in this game either. Sturtze has thrown 225 pitches in his last two starts and 118 in his last one. Maduro of the Orioles is a middle reliever spot starter, he isn't finishing this one. Esteban Yan of the D-Rays I can't see pitching in this one as he shouldn't have pitched last night, because he was tired and showed it. We are looking at two of the worst pens in the bigs as well.

HC
 
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Investment Executive

Guest
using the consensus of my offshores noticed a strange occurance this year so far

when line closes at 10.5 at enron..
over is 8-0....

now is that not a juicy piece of non-trival info....lmao!

good luck tonight H/C.
 
I

Investment Executive

Guest
take a look at KC /Suppan +134

i would think they have a better than 42% chance tonight they way kip wells is worried about tipping off his pitches(which he has been doing)...and the shape of sox bullpen going into tonight...

suppan can be horse when it comes to keeping his team in the game to the 6th/7th...as he shown by his last 6 starts...

durham questionable...
 
H

Happy'Capper

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IE,

Is that trend good for just days of the week ending in "Y"????
wink.gif


Best of luck to you also,
HC
 
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H

Happy'Capper

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KC (Suppan) is on my list of possibilities, waiting a touch due to usual home team favorite bettors.......

Love Suppan on the road, have had him his last two road starts, he held the A's in check until he got hit hard in the 7th(?) I believe last time..........

Thanks for the info on Wells tipping his pitches, that I hadn't heard..... Also, yes that BP of the Sox w/o Foulke is right there with the Orioles and Rays.

HC
 
H

Happy'Capper

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Royals +129 CWS
Risking 2.00 Units to Win 2.58 Units

Suppan is one of those bulldog type of pitchers whose record doesn't always reflect the way throws. Game after game he keeps his team in the game late into the game. On the road teams have hit only .253 off of him. Overall after the all star break teams have only hit .228 off him. The White Sox bullpen has one key component that you really look at and that is closer Keith Foulke. He has pitched three of the last White Sox games and it will be unlikely that he will be seen this evening. (56 pitches in last three appearances) IE, pointed out how Wells is tipping his pitches lately.... That could be a good reason why his July ERA was 5.29 and after the all star break teams are hitting .304 off him and has a 7.32 ERA.

HC
 
N

Never Caught Up

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IE,

I think that kind of info is what Cow was talking about when he said he got more info just reading the stuff you penciled on the men's room wall than he got out of Baseball Weekly.

Good stuff. Thanks.

NCU
 
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