MLB - August 1, 2001

[Happy'Capper]

Yesterday's Recap:
3-1 +2.93 Units
Overall Second Half (July 1st & After)
45-44-1 +6.30 Units

Be back later with some plays......

HC

 

[Happy'Capper]

Cubs -114 Padres
Risking 2.00 Units to Win 1.75 Units

Tapani on the road looks like he has struggled all season, a closer look at his starts shows that in not true. In Colorado he allowed ten earned in 3.1 innings and in Arizona he allowed eight earned in two innings pitched. Other than those two starts he has allowed only 16 Earned in 40 IP in his other road starts. (3.60 ERA) Big differance to me in this game is the pen. Trevor Hoffman is the only guy in that Padres pen that can consistently get people out and he is slipping somewhat. The Cubs on the other side have a pen that is in the top five of baseball. Padres have hit only .235 overall at home and are ten games under .500 at home. In seven of Jones' last ten starts he has allowed four earned runs or more, overall he has a 1-9 home record. In July his ERA was 6.27.

Mariners -1 1/2 -121 Tigers
Risking 2.00 Units to Win 1.65 Units

Seattle is always dangerous coming off a loss. They will be able to take their aggression out on a batting practice pitcher this evening in Holt. He is 2-6 at home with an ERA of 6.93, and those are probably his more impressive stats. Check out these averages teams are clubbing him at:
Overall .320
Home .325
Lefties .331
Righties .309
Teams smile when they face this guy.

Abbott on the other hand has a respectable 4-1 road record. Had a nice 3-0 July as well. Teams overall hit him at only a .237 pace overall. (.239 Vs. Left and .235 Vs. Right) Once again the largest difference maker with the Mariners is their bullpen. Overall comparing the M's pen with the Tigers there is a full two run difference.
Mariners Pen ERA 2.85
Tigers Pen ERA 4.88
Feel very comfortable laying the run and a half with the road team here.

Twins Vs. Jays OVER 9 1/2 -107
Risking 2.00 Units to Win 1.86 Units

Halladay is coming off four days rest and a season high of 103 pitches thrown on 7/27. Looking for a rough outing out of him today. Teams are hitting him at .389 at home and .314 overall. Not sure how long he will be able to go in today's start. Lohse has started eight games for the Twins. In seven of those starts he has allowed four earned runs or more. In his last three starts he has a WHIP of 2.33 and an ERA of 9.45. On the road he has an ERA of 7.31 allowing 24 Earned in 28.1 IP. Teams are hitting him at .308 on his away starts. Suprisingly both bullpens' ERA are over 4.00, Koch did throw 20 pitches as well last night. The Twins middle relief is suspect too, and I am sure they will need it this evening Carasco (5.13 ERA), Miller (4.33), Wells (4.42)

Looking at one more side and total. Possibly will be back later.

Good luck if you play these,
HC

 

[Shunner]

Happy, what do ya think about baltimore?

 

[Happy'Capper]

Be extremely careful with the Orioles. Johnson has thrown 230 pitches in his last two starts. In five of his last six starts he has thrown 100 or more pitches.

This game is going to come down to the bullpens as I see both of the starters being gone by the sixth. Now with Trombley being traded to the Dodgers, that Orioles pen is really bad. Plus, I read somewhere Maduro a middle reliever will be making a spot start soon, so he will be more than likely unavailable.

Honestly, I am going to play the over on this total but people are taking the under right now and I am hoping it drops to a ridiculous 8 1/2....... although I still like the 9.

Making a long post short, I don't like Balt at all at the price of about -155 to -165.

Hope that helps,
HC

 

[Shunner]

Thanks for the insight!

 

[Shunner]

Whats your thoughts on Houston winning?
Not too bug ya.

 

[Happy'Capper]

No problem,

It is very true that Houston hits lefties extremely hard. That being said, I am not willing to back Redding with a line above -150 especially with the Astros using quite a bit of their pen last evening.........

Too big a number for me.

HC

 

[Happy'Capper]

D-Rays Vs. Orioles OVER 9 +109
Risking 2.00 Units to Win 2.18 Units

I don't mind taking the over 9 in this game if I can get a price tag like that. I will be the first to admit that Johnson has been the best the Orioles have had to offer, very consistent at home. Have a feeling it is going to be rough night for him this evening because of his pitch counts. Look at these pitch counts from his last six starts, (most recent start first) 108-122-96-108-107-121. That is five out of six over 100 or more and 230 in his last two. No one outside of Livan Hernandez can withstand those type of pitch counts over time, and really he can't either. What I am getting at is that I see both bullpens determining the outcome of this contest. Both starters should be gone by the end of the sixth. Now that Trombley has been shipped off to LA, that O's pen is really thin. Ryan (5.30 ERA), Mills (4.26), Kohlmeier (8.88), and Groom (3.27). The Rays pen is just as week and even worse this evening as their key arm in the pen, Yan, threw 25 pitches last evening and probably won't go tonight. Finally, Rupe, the starter for the Rays has had his share of problems on the road. Starting with allowing an amazing 45 Earned runs in 44.1 IP (9.07 ERA), in those innings he has allowed 80 baserunners between hits and walks..... OUCH.... Counting on some fireworks in the sixth inning and beyond.

Well, my fellow cappers, since it is too hot to play real golf here in the MidWest, I am off to my favorite hobby of "Happy" Hour and Golden Tee.........

HC