Hou Astros -125 NY Mets
Risking 2.00 Units to Win 1.60 Units
First, The Astros hit left handed pitching exceptionally hard. .308 Overall, .325 at Home, and .311 in their last ten. Glendan Rusch, Mets starter tonight, is left handed and struggles mightily on the road. He is 2-3 with a 7.01 ERA, allowing 41 Earned in 52.2 innings pitched. Opponents are hitting a phenomenal .366 against him in his road appearances and .302 overall. The Mets now don't have the depth they once had in the pen either since the trade of Wendell and Cook. While the Astros pen should be good and rested and have Dotel, Cruz, Jackson, and Wagner ready to go this evening. Mlicki will never be a Cy Young award winner, but has pitched well lately. At home he is 3-2 with a 4.23 ERA, also overall in July he is 2-0 and 3.48 and since the all star break he has allowed only five earned in 16.1 IP (2.76 ERA)
Cubs VS. Padres
UNDER 9 -115
Risking 2.00 Units to Win 1.73 Units
Lieber has been a real solid starter all year long, but their strong pen makes this a play. You could argue that the Cubs pen is amoung the five strongest in the league. (VanPoppel, Fassero, Gordon, Heredia, Farnsworth, and the new Cubbie Weathers) Lieber on the road this year has a tidy ERA of 3.80 and opponents don't hit him too hard (.266) Plus the Cubs bats have been pretty silent in their road games, an overall road avg of .246, the Padres have hit even worse at home. (.235) Lawrence is getting called up for this start and has been good when he was in the majors in July. 1-0 record, 0.82 ERA in July (1 ER in 11 IP) Overall teams are hitting a paultry .235 against him. Nine is just too much in this matchup.
Mariners Vs. Tigers
UNDER 10 -115
Risking 2.00 Units to Win 1.73 Units
You just about could take this under alone on principle alone with the Mariners. Eight of their last ten games have all gone under the total. The Mariners pen has just been fantastic this season. They tote a 3.42 ERA on the road and in their last ten games a 1.44 ERA. Sele is coming off five days of rest and has been great on the road. He has a 6-0 record and a 3.41 ERA on the road. So far in July he is 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA, after the all star break teams are only hitting .192 off of him. Since coming over from Houston, Lima has been a decent thrower. He has regained a ton of his control. Since coming over to the AL he has allowed only four bases on balls in 37.1 innings. Both he and Sele have had WHIP's under 1.00 in their last three starts as well. Now, all we need for completion of this play is a little cooperation from that Tigers' pen.
Good luck if you are on these tonight,
HC
