Yesterday: 2-1 (+60)
Season: 25-14 (+975)
Coming out of a weekend full of games into a small card for tonight. Here are the 3 I'm playing:
BOS -155 : A little more chalk than I am usually comfortable with, but I think I'll get it. Red Sox are on a roll, winning 5 of their last 7 and posting a 13-4 mark for the month of May. The White Sox are going the opposite direction after starting the season well, dropping 7 of their last 10 games. Ritchie and Lowe are both having good seasons, and even though I'm still not sure I'm sold on Lowe yet, I give him the edge today based on past appearances. Actually, neither of these pitchers have ever started against their opponent today, but their relief appearances have had very different results. In 17 appearances, totalling 22 innings, Lowe has a lifetime ERA of 3.27 vs. Chicago. On the other hand, Ritchie has faced the Boston 4 times, and has given up 12 earned runs in only 6 1/3 innings of work (ERA = 17.05
). Go with the hot team with the better pitcher playing at home. That's usually a good formula for success.
TOR/NYY Over 9.5 -110 : I think I've cashed a couple of tickets in the past week betting the Yankees under (including yesterday), but I'm going the opposite way today. The average total for the 4 previous meetings between these teams this year is a whopping 14 (19, 7, 16, 14)! Both these team are on winning streaks (TOR 3 gms, NYY 4 gms) and have been hitting pretty well. The Yankees batters are absolutely on fire - over the last 7 days, Rondell White has the 10th best batting average on the team and he is hitting .286. I don't think the Yanks should have any problem putting up 7 or 8 runs tonight vs. Lyon, who gave up 7 earned runs in 6.2 innings (ERA = 9.95) in his only previous start against the Yankees. So, the Blue Jays should only need a couple to push the game Over, and they have a good shot to get more. They are averaging over 6 runs a game vs. the Yanks in 4 meetings already this year. Hernandez gave up 8 earned runs in 1.2 innings vs. the Devil Rays (yes, Devil Rays) in his last start and may be having some back trouble according to Joe Torre. As for Blue Jay hitters, Shannon Stewart, Jose Cruz, and Carlos Delgado all have at least 10 at bats vs. Hernandez, and all have slugging percentages over .800. I could go on, but you're probably asleep by now. I'm going OVER.
STL -155 : Don't have time to write much more after all that blabbering, but the Cardinals have historically hit Haynes better than the Reds have hit Williams (8 Cardinals have a lifetime BA of .280 or better vs. Haynes; Williams has a 3.26 ERA vs. Reds). Haynes hasn't given up a lot of runs to the Cards (lifetime ERA 3.72), but sooner or later all those hits will translate into runs. Ken Griffey, Jr. actually hits Woody Williams very well, but of course, he is still out. The Cardinals have now played 6 home games in a row and have won 5 of them, and are making a run at the over-achieving Reds for the division lead. Woody looked awfully good in his first start back from injury and I'm going with him tonight.
As always, good luck.
Season: 25-14 (+975)
Coming out of a weekend full of games into a small card for tonight. Here are the 3 I'm playing:
BOS -155 : A little more chalk than I am usually comfortable with, but I think I'll get it. Red Sox are on a roll, winning 5 of their last 7 and posting a 13-4 mark for the month of May. The White Sox are going the opposite direction after starting the season well, dropping 7 of their last 10 games. Ritchie and Lowe are both having good seasons, and even though I'm still not sure I'm sold on Lowe yet, I give him the edge today based on past appearances. Actually, neither of these pitchers have ever started against their opponent today, but their relief appearances have had very different results. In 17 appearances, totalling 22 innings, Lowe has a lifetime ERA of 3.27 vs. Chicago. On the other hand, Ritchie has faced the Boston 4 times, and has given up 12 earned runs in only 6 1/3 innings of work (ERA = 17.05
). Go with the hot team with the better pitcher playing at home. That's usually a good formula for success.TOR/NYY Over 9.5 -110 : I think I've cashed a couple of tickets in the past week betting the Yankees under (including yesterday), but I'm going the opposite way today. The average total for the 4 previous meetings between these teams this year is a whopping 14 (19, 7, 16, 14)! Both these team are on winning streaks (TOR 3 gms, NYY 4 gms) and have been hitting pretty well. The Yankees batters are absolutely on fire - over the last 7 days, Rondell White has the 10th best batting average on the team and he is hitting .286. I don't think the Yanks should have any problem putting up 7 or 8 runs tonight vs. Lyon, who gave up 7 earned runs in 6.2 innings (ERA = 9.95) in his only previous start against the Yankees. So, the Blue Jays should only need a couple to push the game Over, and they have a good shot to get more. They are averaging over 6 runs a game vs. the Yanks in 4 meetings already this year. Hernandez gave up 8 earned runs in 1.2 innings vs. the Devil Rays (yes, Devil Rays) in his last start and may be having some back trouble according to Joe Torre. As for Blue Jay hitters, Shannon Stewart, Jose Cruz, and Carlos Delgado all have at least 10 at bats vs. Hernandez, and all have slugging percentages over .800. I could go on, but you're probably asleep by now. I'm going OVER.
STL -155 : Don't have time to write much more after all that blabbering, but the Cardinals have historically hit Haynes better than the Reds have hit Williams (8 Cardinals have a lifetime BA of .280 or better vs. Haynes; Williams has a 3.26 ERA vs. Reds). Haynes hasn't given up a lot of runs to the Cards (lifetime ERA 3.72), but sooner or later all those hits will translate into runs. Ken Griffey, Jr. actually hits Woody Williams very well, but of course, he is still out. The Cardinals have now played 6 home games in a row and have won 5 of them, and are making a run at the over-achieving Reds for the division lead. Woody looked awfully good in his first start back from injury and I'm going with him tonight.
As always, good luck.
