Posted record at MadJacks: 12-1-1
FLORIDA -146 (Willis vs Ramirez listed)
FLORIDA:
Florida has become a scoring machine of late averaging 8.75 Runs per game over the last 8 games. Florida continues to destroy left-handed pitching this season. They are hitting .300 vs lefties for the season and over the last 10 game span, they are hitting lefties even better, hitting for a .400 clip! Today Florida will be facing the left-hander Horacio Ramirez, who in 2 lifetime starts vs Florida has a whopping ERA of 8.18
Of the 2 starts Ramirez has made vs Florida, one came at home in Atlanta where he did pitch decent, but nothing special. He gave up 4 runs (3 earned) in 6 innings of work, but did not strikeout any batters while walking 2. Atlanta gave him a comfort zone in that game by putting up 13 runs. The other start came in Florida where the Marlins rocked him for 7 earned runs in just 5 innings. I can see that same outcome possibly happening today considering this game is in Florida and when you look at the fact that Ramirez, like many young pitchers, will tend to struggle a lot more away from home. Ramirez has an ERA of 5.36 on the road which is almost a full 3 runs higher than what he allows when pitching at home (2.54 ERA at home).
Ramirez is a groundball pitcher, but Florida is a team that has a lot of team speed and runs a lot. They actually lead the entire Major Leagues in stolen bases and this helps them in staying out of a lot of potential double plays which will only help when facing a guy like Ramirez who will get his fair share of ground balls. One more note on Ramirez, is the fact that even though he usually keeps the ball on the ground, he will make many more mistake pitches on the road. He?s given up 7 of his 9 home runs allowed away from Turner Field in Atlanta and this ties right into the home/away number for youngsters and certain other pitchers. The focus is lost some when the pressure is on and when you don?t have the support of the home fans, sometimes it?s very difficult for some pitchers.
Dontrelle Willis gets the start for Florida in this game and what?s not to like about this guy? The guy is simply one of the brightest rising star pitchers in baseball. He?s already put some $$ in my pocket this year and if the price is right, I?ll continue to go with him if enough supporting situations warrant the play.
Willis has now made a total of 10 starts since his call-up and is an amazing 8-1 with a 2.26 ERA.
Willis is extremely tough to face the 1st time around and even though Atlanta has hit lefties well this season, they are not currently, and even struggled against Mark Redman a couple days ago who is someone they would normally get to. The last 10 games vs lefties, Atlanta is hitting just .153 and I can?t see them hitting this Willis kid with his funky delivery he has going on. Batters have an extremely tough time picking up the ball because of that ?funky? style.
Willis has only given up 3 home runs in his 10 starts and has a better than 3 to 1 strikeout/walk ratio averaging nearly a strikeout per inning pitched.
Home Plate Umpire is scheduled to be Tim Timmons who has called a very high strike % this season at around 63%. Timmons? strikeout/walk ratio is at 2.25 which looks like a really good match for Willis especially when you look at the fact that Timmons? games behind the plate are averaging a very high 15.2 strikeouts per game in his 18 called games. This is an extremely high number of strikeouts for any Umpire and I wouldn?t be surprised to see Willis rack them up in this game.
Timmons is also 6-1 for the home team when that home team is favored by ?125 on up this season and if you go all the way back through the 1999 season, you?ll see that these home favorites of ?125 on up are hitting at a very high 68.6% with Timmons back there. Those home favorites have a record of 46-21
Did I forget to mention, that Willis can handle the bat very well for a pitcher? This guy even has a home run this season.
Bottom line, I think this game is going to be a big pitching mismatch and when you throw in the fact that Florida is absolutely crushing the ball of late, I?ll take my chances and hope this isn?t close at the end. The bullpen situation does favor Atlanta, but I do expect Willis to give a good 7 innings and hopefully by then, this game is out of reach.
Good luck everyone :thumb:
-ndnfan
FLORIDA -146 (Willis vs Ramirez listed)
FLORIDA:
Florida has become a scoring machine of late averaging 8.75 Runs per game over the last 8 games. Florida continues to destroy left-handed pitching this season. They are hitting .300 vs lefties for the season and over the last 10 game span, they are hitting lefties even better, hitting for a .400 clip! Today Florida will be facing the left-hander Horacio Ramirez, who in 2 lifetime starts vs Florida has a whopping ERA of 8.18
Of the 2 starts Ramirez has made vs Florida, one came at home in Atlanta where he did pitch decent, but nothing special. He gave up 4 runs (3 earned) in 6 innings of work, but did not strikeout any batters while walking 2. Atlanta gave him a comfort zone in that game by putting up 13 runs. The other start came in Florida where the Marlins rocked him for 7 earned runs in just 5 innings. I can see that same outcome possibly happening today considering this game is in Florida and when you look at the fact that Ramirez, like many young pitchers, will tend to struggle a lot more away from home. Ramirez has an ERA of 5.36 on the road which is almost a full 3 runs higher than what he allows when pitching at home (2.54 ERA at home).
Ramirez is a groundball pitcher, but Florida is a team that has a lot of team speed and runs a lot. They actually lead the entire Major Leagues in stolen bases and this helps them in staying out of a lot of potential double plays which will only help when facing a guy like Ramirez who will get his fair share of ground balls. One more note on Ramirez, is the fact that even though he usually keeps the ball on the ground, he will make many more mistake pitches on the road. He?s given up 7 of his 9 home runs allowed away from Turner Field in Atlanta and this ties right into the home/away number for youngsters and certain other pitchers. The focus is lost some when the pressure is on and when you don?t have the support of the home fans, sometimes it?s very difficult for some pitchers.
Dontrelle Willis gets the start for Florida in this game and what?s not to like about this guy? The guy is simply one of the brightest rising star pitchers in baseball. He?s already put some $$ in my pocket this year and if the price is right, I?ll continue to go with him if enough supporting situations warrant the play.
Willis has now made a total of 10 starts since his call-up and is an amazing 8-1 with a 2.26 ERA.
Willis is extremely tough to face the 1st time around and even though Atlanta has hit lefties well this season, they are not currently, and even struggled against Mark Redman a couple days ago who is someone they would normally get to. The last 10 games vs lefties, Atlanta is hitting just .153 and I can?t see them hitting this Willis kid with his funky delivery he has going on. Batters have an extremely tough time picking up the ball because of that ?funky? style.
Willis has only given up 3 home runs in his 10 starts and has a better than 3 to 1 strikeout/walk ratio averaging nearly a strikeout per inning pitched.
Home Plate Umpire is scheduled to be Tim Timmons who has called a very high strike % this season at around 63%. Timmons? strikeout/walk ratio is at 2.25 which looks like a really good match for Willis especially when you look at the fact that Timmons? games behind the plate are averaging a very high 15.2 strikeouts per game in his 18 called games. This is an extremely high number of strikeouts for any Umpire and I wouldn?t be surprised to see Willis rack them up in this game.
Timmons is also 6-1 for the home team when that home team is favored by ?125 on up this season and if you go all the way back through the 1999 season, you?ll see that these home favorites of ?125 on up are hitting at a very high 68.6% with Timmons back there. Those home favorites have a record of 46-21
Did I forget to mention, that Willis can handle the bat very well for a pitcher? This guy even has a home run this season.
Bottom line, I think this game is going to be a big pitching mismatch and when you throw in the fact that Florida is absolutely crushing the ball of late, I?ll take my chances and hope this isn?t close at the end. The bullpen situation does favor Atlanta, but I do expect Willis to give a good 7 innings and hopefully by then, this game is out of reach.
Good luck everyone :thumb:
-ndnfan
