YTD: 7-11 (-5.45 Units)
Went 3-1 on Sunday, and had some late inning losses the previous couple of days, so hopefully starting to turn this season around.
Will probably have a couple more, but wanted to get this one in early even though it is high chalk. From personal experience, I think you can play more heavier favorites later in the season than earlier in the season and I'm definitely not going to lay this much juice very often, but just really like the value on this one and I don't think it's gonna drop, so put it in early. Hope I'm right, but you never know! Played:
ST LOUIS -211 (WAINWRIGHT VS W. RODRIGUEZ)
Not only is the Home Opener for the Cardinals, but they are playing really well going 4-1(Prior to Sunday's game) so far this year and now have Wainwright going once again and this guy has owned Houston in his career. In 9 career starts vs Houston, Wainwright is 7-1 with a 1.92 ERA and has only givin up 53 hits in 70.1 innings vs them. Wainwright in home starts is even more effective....last season, his home ERA was over a full run lower than his road ERA and over the course of his career it's much the same. Also, Wainwright is more dominant vs right-handed hitters than lefties. Last season he held right-handed hitters to just a .217 average vs .275 vs lefties and Houston is probably only going to have 3 left-handed bats in there and of course are without a big left bat in Berkman.
Houston is reeling, so far 0-6 on the season and even though their starter Wandy Rodriguez has been pretty good for them the past couple of seasons, he had a horrible spring training with a 12.10 ERA and in his 1st start this year, his whip was 1.83 and BAA was .333 even with that game being at home. Well today is on the road which brings me to his home/away numbers:
Wandy Rodriguez at home last season had an ERA of 2.08, but on the Road it jumps up almost double to 4.05 and over his career it's much the same with his Road ERA over 1.50 higher than his home games.
Wandy Rodriguez over his career on the Road has an ERA of 5.19 and a record of just 20-31 and Vs St. Louis in his career he is just 3-9. So not only does it seem like Wandy is off-form from the spring and 1st start numbers, but he's pitching on the road vs a very good team who he has not had success against and is pitching for a team with no offense right now. Houston is averaging just 2.16 runs per game.
I expect to have a couple more plays for Monday.
Good luck to all!
-ndnfan
Went 3-1 on Sunday, and had some late inning losses the previous couple of days, so hopefully starting to turn this season around.
Will probably have a couple more, but wanted to get this one in early even though it is high chalk. From personal experience, I think you can play more heavier favorites later in the season than earlier in the season and I'm definitely not going to lay this much juice very often, but just really like the value on this one and I don't think it's gonna drop, so put it in early. Hope I'm right, but you never know! Played:
ST LOUIS -211 (WAINWRIGHT VS W. RODRIGUEZ)
Not only is the Home Opener for the Cardinals, but they are playing really well going 4-1(Prior to Sunday's game) so far this year and now have Wainwright going once again and this guy has owned Houston in his career. In 9 career starts vs Houston, Wainwright is 7-1 with a 1.92 ERA and has only givin up 53 hits in 70.1 innings vs them. Wainwright in home starts is even more effective....last season, his home ERA was over a full run lower than his road ERA and over the course of his career it's much the same. Also, Wainwright is more dominant vs right-handed hitters than lefties. Last season he held right-handed hitters to just a .217 average vs .275 vs lefties and Houston is probably only going to have 3 left-handed bats in there and of course are without a big left bat in Berkman.
Houston is reeling, so far 0-6 on the season and even though their starter Wandy Rodriguez has been pretty good for them the past couple of seasons, he had a horrible spring training with a 12.10 ERA and in his 1st start this year, his whip was 1.83 and BAA was .333 even with that game being at home. Well today is on the road which brings me to his home/away numbers:
Wandy Rodriguez at home last season had an ERA of 2.08, but on the Road it jumps up almost double to 4.05 and over his career it's much the same with his Road ERA over 1.50 higher than his home games.
Wandy Rodriguez over his career on the Road has an ERA of 5.19 and a record of just 20-31 and Vs St. Louis in his career he is just 3-9. So not only does it seem like Wandy is off-form from the spring and 1st start numbers, but he's pitching on the road vs a very good team who he has not had success against and is pitching for a team with no offense right now. Houston is averaging just 2.16 runs per game.
I expect to have a couple more plays for Monday.
Good luck to all!
-ndnfan