MLB Runline?

[kcwolf]

Should not have started this thread, but I'll leave it up with one finger on the delete key.

Why?

Play straight up or forget it, IMHO. I see to many good folks lose in this situation. Favorite and dog players. Understand all the statistical reasoning to a point. Too many one run games for one to go there.

OK, I won't delete it, and don't worry about making me look like a fool. I look like a fool more often than I would like on a public forum and elsewhere.

Play to win, period, or layoff. I don't see the logic in most cases. Runlines seem to be a bailout that ends in disaster for most on this forum.

Also see some very astute players that know what they are doing.

Fill me in, astute players.

Thanks in advance!

kcwolf

 

[Nick Douglas]

KC,

I agree 100%, especially with giving 1.5 runs. I would be interested to see people track it over the course of a season because I would wager that runline players cost themselves money laying -1.5.

I wonder if it is good to take the +1.5 in some cases, though. Personally, I don't do it, but I know this year I have lost a heckuva lot of big dogs by one run this year.

 

[Valuist]

I had a thread on ****** earlier in the year telling people to take the +1.5 on teams who were playing against the Cubs, Twins, Boston and Philly. All teams who were favored a lot but not necessarily scoring a lot of runs.

quit posting other sites here!

[This message has been edited by MadJack (edited 09-26-2001).]

 

[yyz]

I don'r adhere to my own advice, but the best way to make money in baseball is pure and simple:

only play dogs!

Totals and favorites, and runlines will kill you.

My runline record is horrible! I am down 20 units on runlines over the season, including three big losses last night.

The "hook" has only caught me a few times this season. I either get the blow out, or lose the game outright.

Still, playing dogs will get you paid in this game.....laying chalk will kill you.

I will not make another runline wager this season, in hopes of paring my losses.

The dogs will get me back to ground zero!

------------------
"You didn't lose your girlfriend.....you just lost your turn!"

 

[TexasBC6]

Interesting topic KC.

My take on the issue is as follows:

Generally (and I stress generally, there are exceptions) I try to play the -1.5 runline on road teams that are small enough favorites so that laying the -1.5 changes the odds from minus to plus. I also take into serious consideration the total on the game. If it is 8.5 or lower, the odds are simply too great that the game will be decided by one run. With the higher totals, more runs are expected, and the chance that the game will be decided by one run narrows considerably.

For example, I would play the runline if the Astros were playing at Coors field and they were -135 favorites. The runline would probably put them at +105 or +110. In this situation, there is a fairly slim chance that the game will be decided by one run. Coors field features more runs typically and therefore far fewer one run games. The road teams get the added benefit of being able to cover the -1.5 in the 9th inning or in extra innings should the game go that far. For the home team to cover the runline, they would have to have a 2, 3, or 4 run homerun to end the game.

I feel like I have been babbling here, hope I made some sense and was able to shed some light on the subject.

 

[kcwolf]

I see no babbling here, only very good points. Would appreciate more info. Solid info so far!

Thanks for contributing!. Hope more follow.

kcwolf

 

[kcwolf]

I see no babbling here, only very good points. Would appreciate more info. Solid info so far!

Thanks for contributing!. Hope more follow. It's a betting angle I don't use and willing to study it in hopes I'm not missing something.

kcwolf

 

[goofy]

i think texas makes the most valid point in that it's just like any other play where you have to examine the situation.

if you have clemons or johnson or someone of that caliber on the mound and the line is -220 or something, i'd rather take my chances on a run line at -150 or somewhere in there.

do agree though that betting a ton of rl's can lead to disaster.

 

[dr. freeze]

runline is useful for this:

A good pitcher versus a bad pitcher:

Good lineups for both teams.

Parlay the runline with the over.....

 

[HONUS]

Can't parlay with the run-line.

 

[Nosigar]

Some books do allow parly of run-line + total (not Grand Central).

 

[dr. freeze]

yep -- some do some don't.....

another thing to parlay the runline is when the total is about 8.5 and above, two average to bad lineups, and/or cold hitting teams, and mismatch in pitchers.....

parlay top pitcher, runline, with the under......