Well today is the day. As I stated this is when I hope to start the season with confidence for some bigger plays. It happens to be my 76 year old dad's Birthday so i will be traveling to see him in a bit. I will post before I go!
MLB THUR 05062010 - Thoughts & Value Hunting
- Thread starter 40seven
- Start date
I hope to keep the plays per day
I hope to keep the plays per day
down to a POD and one other play maybe two.
BTW Bart your home team edge seems to be real!:toast:
I hope to keep the plays per day
down to a POD and one other play maybe two.
BTW Bart your home team edge seems to be real!:toast:
- Mar 18, 2009
- 1,150
- 4
- 0
Have a safe trip and Happy Birthday to your father always nice to have them around. Take care
Liking today
Phil RL
Me too
Me too
Still looking in at this. If I play it it would be the RL.
The Cards have struggled in these games. More shortly.
Me too
Still looking in at this. If I play it it would be the RL.
The Cards have struggled in these games. More shortly.
I lean to the Cards and the OVER
I lean to the Cards and the OVER
I will not play a big favorite, or a RL with a dropping knife...
The line is going down and everyone is on the Phils.
I may play a small parlay on the Cards and the OVER just for fun.
I lean to the Cards and the OVER
I will not play a big favorite, or a RL with a dropping knife...
The line is going down and everyone is on the Phils.
I may play a small parlay on the Cards and the OVER just for fun.
Thanks
You can never be too careful, but after 6 years and over 2500 games, I was hoping it was - tough to find a longer term trend with that many games that's shown a profit
For 2010
44-25 +1355
AL 21-13 +390
NL 23-12 +965
for today:
plays
none
fades
PHI (play STL)
FLA (play SFO)
MIN (play BAL)
Hope you have a great trip.
Just in case it isn't clear to anyone.
Home teams are the play.
Anything else I list is just my opinion of where there might be more value (the teams listed as plays) or less value (the teams listed as fades). I have nowhere near the history of the home team record, so make sure you take that into account when looking at what appear to be my plays/fades.
To give a real example, in today's STL/PHI game. I look at several scoring simulators and also at how teams / pitchers league-wide have done in certain situations. Nothing indicates that the Phillies have any value as a 2-1 (and higher) favorite.
If I -HAD- to make a line on the game, I would put it at PHI -185. So, taking +205 or more would seem to give you a 10+% ROI and why I listed PHI as a fade.
Take Care,
Bart
Last edited:
No Time
No Time
Bart i want to understand your system better.
Today you have no play or would you play the Giants? or Fish?
for example
No Time
Bart i want to understand your system better.
Today you have no play or would you play the Giants? or Fish?
for example
Going with the "home teams in May", the play would be on FLA.
But, I personally feel that any value in the line is with SFO, which is why I listed it as a fade.
However, as you have seen, in games when I have listed a team as a fade, meaning that I felt there was value in the road team, the home teams have proved me wrong by winning A LOT.
So, to be clear. There really isn't much to understand about my "system".
Is it May? If so, bet the home team.
Not trying to be cute about it, but anything I try to do where it looks like there would be value on the road team just gets killed.
Last edited:
No problem.
Looking over the card, I didn't really think there was any value in the home teams tonight, which is why I didn't have any listed as plays.
Of course, with the way I've been doing trying to pick games, that means everyone should just do a parlay on all home teams tonight
