MLB - Tuesday 5/28

[Heyward]

Yesterday: 4-0 (+445) :shrug:
Season: 35-23 (+1000)

Great day yesterday. Takes some of the pressure off the rest of the week.

Today's picks:

CIN -125 (DOUBLE PLAY, $250/200)
OAK/BAL Over 9 +100

I don't usually post double plays (bet heavy on the Red Sox yesterday, but just posted it the same as my other plays for some reason - how were they the underdogs to the Bluejays?), but I feel really good about the Reds today. They are a good road team and the only thing better than Dessens' 2.51 ERA this season is his 0.78 lifetime ERA vs. the Marlins (he's 3-0 in 4 games against them). For the Marlins, Tavarez is terrible. His ERA this season is 10.08 and his lifetime ERA in 18 gms vs. the Reds is 7.67. There are 10 players on the Reds roster who have a lifetime batting average of .333 or better against this guy. I can't figure out why the line is so low other than home field advantage, but Cincy has a winning record on the road, so maybe there's something else I haven't noticed yet. Anyway, this looks like a solid pick to me.

As for the Oakland game, these pitchers give up a lot of runs, especially to their opponent today. For the season, Hiljus has an ERA of 5.91, and in his one start against the Orioles, he gave up 5 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings (ERA = 9.64). On the other side, Maduro, has an ERA of 5.18 for the season, and in 5 games (2 starts) vs. the A's, has an ERA of 10.66. I can see having one bad game and ending up with 10.66, but to average that over 5 appearances is pretty bad.

Still looking at a couple more (e.g. hard to stay away from Morris at even odds), so I might be back later. Good luck.

 

[Klavius]

Nice to see you back in the batting cages Heyward! That Cincy play looks real tasty to me as well! Any feelings on a couple of obvious chalk plays today...SEA and LA?

 

[Heyward]

Good to be back, Klavius. The short answer is that I like the Dodgers a lot, but the Mariners not so much.

The Dodgers are obviously very hot recently (especially Shawn Green - another homer last night), while the Brewers have posted a 5-17 record on the road this season so far, which is about the worst in the league that I can think of. In 2 starts against the Dodgers, Rusch has an ERA of 27.00, that's right 27.00! Ishii is 7-1 this season with an ERA of 2.77 (a little more than 2 runs better than Rusch for the year) and in his only previous start vs. the Brewers allowed 2 earned runs in 5.1 innings, while Rusch has allowed 13 earned runs to the Dodgers in only 4.1 innings. The Dodgers' weakness this season has been their bats, but over the last week or so, they have really come alive, so I think the Dodgers take this one easily. I don't generally lay chalk this big, but depending on what my earlier games do, I may be playing the run line on this one (currently -1.5 +120). LA is hitting well enough to cover by 2 runs in my opinion.

Even though the Mariners are favored more heavily, I don't like them nearly as much today. I think the Mariners should win, but I'm not sold enough to lay -230. Pineiro is pitching very well this year, but he is 0-2 lifetime vs. the Devil Rays, including a loss to Tampa just last week at home. By Tampa Bay standards, the Devil Rays have hit Pineiro pretty well overall. Considering the Devil Rays won a series off of Seattle just last week in Seattle, I don't think they will have any fear of the Mariners tonight, so no psychological edge here as there probably will be the next time the D-Rays play the Yankees. Don't have anything great to say about Rupe, except that he beat Pineiro and the Mariners last week when the Mariners were laying heavy chalk like today. TB better at home, but, of course, SEA is better away, so it's hard make anything out of the location. Like I said, I think the Mariners will win, but I'm not putting $230 of my money on it.

Hope that helps.

 

[Heyward]

OK, a pitching change in Oakland looks like it's going to No Action my Over bet in that game, and while the Over might still be a decent call even with Mulder pitching, I am going to stay away if Hiljus doesn't go. But, after re-reading my last post, I've sold myself on the Dodgers.

Adding:

LA -1.5 +120

Good luck.

 

[Heyward]

Tonight: 2-0 (+320)
Season: 37-23 (+1320)

That's 6-0, +765 for the past 2 days. The Reds started out great, but made me sweat a lot before pulling it out in extra innings, and then the Dodgers covered the run line with room to spare. The OAK pick was a no action, and hopefully at least one person read my answer to Klavius' question and stayed away from the Mariners. I haven't even looked at tomorrow's games (here in Raleigh, we were all in a bar watching the Hurricanes advance to the Stanley Cup finals - hockey in North Carolina.....it will never work), but I'm sure I can find some time during lunch tomorrow. Hope everyone had a good night, and I'll see you Wednesday. Good night.:shrug:

 

[Antonio]

Wtg HW!