- Mar 24, 2016
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Tampa Bay Rays (Smyly) @ Boston Red Sox (Wright)
Pick: Tampa Bay (Rays) @2.57
Tampa Bay won yesterday in Boston, but I think they will have another chance today as well.
My predictive model still gives more chance to Boston (53.2%) and projected odds on Tampa Bay are @2.14 (+114). But with the odds of 2.57 we have a value play on Tampa.
Drew Smyly has some great numbers against Boston Red Sox. He beat them in April, when he struck 11 batters in Fenway Park. He is 2-1 against them and his team record is 4-3, when he was on the mound against Boston. In last 3 games versus Boston (2015, 2016) he struck out 29 batters in 20 innings, which is pretty amazing if we know, that Boston is one of the best hitting teams in MLB.
Wright on other side didn't pitch against Tampa yet, which is advantage for him, but he didn't look good in last game. He walked 3 hitters, struck out only 1 and allowed 5 runs, 2 home runs, 7 hits in 6 innings against Kansas.
Boston is better team, no doubt, but I think we will have some pitching advantage here and 2.57 is too high on Tampa. Tampa can beat Boston again. One interesting thing here. Tampa Bay is 5-0 in last 5 games during 3rd game of the series, Boston is just 2-9 in last 11 during 3rd game of the series. And guess what...this is 3rd game of the series.
My whole card:
Pick: Tampa Bay (Rays) @2.57
Tampa Bay won yesterday in Boston, but I think they will have another chance today as well.
My predictive model still gives more chance to Boston (53.2%) and projected odds on Tampa Bay are @2.14 (+114). But with the odds of 2.57 we have a value play on Tampa.
Drew Smyly has some great numbers against Boston Red Sox. He beat them in April, when he struck 11 batters in Fenway Park. He is 2-1 against them and his team record is 4-3, when he was on the mound against Boston. In last 3 games versus Boston (2015, 2016) he struck out 29 batters in 20 innings, which is pretty amazing if we know, that Boston is one of the best hitting teams in MLB.
Wright on other side didn't pitch against Tampa yet, which is advantage for him, but he didn't look good in last game. He walked 3 hitters, struck out only 1 and allowed 5 runs, 2 home runs, 7 hits in 6 innings against Kansas.
Boston is better team, no doubt, but I think we will have some pitching advantage here and 2.57 is too high on Tampa. Tampa can beat Boston again. One interesting thing here. Tampa Bay is 5-0 in last 5 games during 3rd game of the series, Boston is just 2-9 in last 11 during 3rd game of the series. And guess what...this is 3rd game of the series.
My whole card:
