MNF -Against The Public Quest??

[DblBogey]

I have a question about betting against the public:

Does anyone have consistent success with this method of capping?

NE and Indy and Balt were big public plays yesterday and cashed. Detroit and Buffalo were the contrary but I think INDY and NE had more followers.

Tonight I suspect everyone will be on Green Bay. Will the public get this one as well?

I am interested to see what some of you think.

Thanks

 

[Jackanape]

NE was closer than the cover made it out to be...(I know, I was one of the losers on the Fish! LOL) So, I'm not sure the public had the easy edge there.

But the Indy cover was definitely a public fave and an easy one at that.

Last week, the public was all over Baltimore and Under on MNF. Even the line was designed to sucker in the under players...we know how that one came out.

I don't think you can consistently go against the public and win, but if you weigh in set lines, competent handicapping, AND public opinion, you can find the games the public will lose. JMO

 

[nyraider]

i am playing tenn +3, i think wrong team is favored! but like you stated, green bay at home is where the money will go! and thats why they were made the fav.. i also think, tenn will run and control the clock, and there defense is better! tenn and the under!!!

 

[IntenseOperator]

I think it's hard enough just capping the games. I'm not going to say I won't try to find out what the public lean is, but more often than not, I'm looking for where the smart money is at. You could see yesterday it was on the Bills as that line dropped.

GL on your action

 

[DblBogey]

Thanks for the responses.

Yes, the line on the Bills Dropped and right before game time the lines dropped on the Raiders yesterday and on Penn State on Saturday and I decided to stay clear (was leaning on Purdue). I am just wondering if anyone uses this as their strongest method of capping? and where they get their public percentages?

I personally use it as a small part of my strategy but haven't figured out a consistent method for "public plays" as I don't have a great source for finding out an accurate percentage of money on a side.

 

[SPIDER]

when was the last time the packers started the season 0-3 on the road. i just can not see that happening. favre and mcnair are both banged up so we should see alot of green and brown.

lean to the packers

spider

 

[DblBogey]

Spider

Do you mean 0-3 at home? I totally agree. It seems too easy -- that's one reason why I am asking all the questions about the public plays.

Thanks and Good Luck

 

[treynolds]

watch the line moves. miami went from +13 and finished at +11
Indi went from -9- down to -8-
and i know washington finished at -1 on pinnacle last night. So it would appear to me the public was on the wrong side of those games otherwise the lines would not have moved the way they did.

 

[DblBogey]

Trey,

I am not sure about that. I really think the public money was on both Indy and NE and the line movement was bait and it backfired-- "public" still won. The same happened with lines on Buffalo and SF and the "public" lost. I am not sure where the money was with Washington.

 

[treynolds]

bogey
Im not completly sure where the money was but the lines usually move with the money. Check your lines from the start of the day yesterday and then check www.scoresandodds.com for the closing lines and you will see what i mean. Ive noticed that the last few years public plays do good for the first 6-7 weeks in the pros, things will be changing soon.

 

[DblBogey]

Thanks Trey,

Youar right about the lines moving. The Indy Line went from -9 to -8 by game time --which would definitely lead me to think public money was on Oakland. But ********* had over 60% on Indy and a friend in Vegas I get %'s from said Indy was a huge public play. This is why I think it was a "trap" that backfired.

I agree with you -- I think the public's winning plays will be changing soon as well.

 

[thehalliday]

bogey,

I have been trying to determine a method or system based on public play and line movement myself. I use [edit out link by admin]which is a great source for betting percentages with real time data (the nice thing is this site also facters in the amount of the bets so you get a true picture of where the money is not just the number of bets) and www.scoresandodds.com is great (as mentioned above) to see the line movement. When playing the contrarian I usually look for games that have 75% or move on one side and line movement in the oposite direction this is the classic example of so called "smart money" moving the line down when it looks like it should go up based on the public play.

Anyway I have had some success but you have to be very disciplined, consistent, and have faith in the system you set for yourself. (the means betting against your instincts sometimes, which I have a hard time with)

Tonight shows 76% of the money on Green Bay with no line movement (although their are a few sites with it at -3.5). Personally I like Green Bay in this situation and even though I normally try to bet against the public I don't see enough to do it here. I've got to with the flow and Favre at home on Monday night here.

Good Luck

 

[DblBogey]

Great stuff Halliday -- thanks

consistency and discipline is a real key. I keep changin my methods of capping. I have to set it and stick to it for a while to see true results before making adjustments.

Best of Luck!!