MNF help

[running_wild]

Hey everyone,

just needed some advice. Had a bad week in NFL this week with one teaser still to go.

Buff +15.5
Buff Under 50
Pit -5.5

So its just Pit left, and I see alot of great cappers jumping on Balt. Is Pit -5.5 something to worry about?

Should I bet Balt +13 and hope it lands in between or just ride pitts?

Thanks

 

[GM]

I don't really like to tell anyone what they should do, but if I were you I'd be taking the +13 for half the amount you stand to win on your teaser. This gives you a 7? point middle for a chance to win 50% more. That's value I think. Of course, if Pitt romps you'll be regretting it a bit. But should the unthinkable happen and Balt keeps it close you're bailed out of a loss.

I'm not a teaser player...what does one of these pay? In the range of +300 I am guessing?

If +300 is about correct...I'd do this:

For a $100 teaser, put $165 to win $150 on Balt +13
:
If Pitt wins by more than 13 = $135 profit ($300 - $165)
If Pitt wins by less than 5?, or loses outright = $50 profit ($150 - $100)
If you hit the middle = $450 profit ($300 + $150)

You obviously liked Pitt more in the first place, so it makes sense it's skewed a bit in that direction so you're still making more for being correct in the first place.

If you REALLY like Pitt and just want to break even should they not cover the -5?, make that $110 to win $100 on Balt +13, and (assuming you stand to make $300 on your teaser) you're making $190 for a Pitt blowout win, $400 for the middle, or $0 for not covering.

Good luck with whatever you decide.

 

[block044]

doesn't the teaser cost more not pay more...you get to play with the points, i thought the payback was 1 to 1 with double the juice? would that change your line of thinking?

 

[running_wild]

Here's the info on the teaser.

buff +15.5
buff under 50
pit -5.5

300 to win 540

odds were 1.8 i think