MNF (Taking Philadelphia)

[Nolan Dalla]

NFL Week Two

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2004 NFL SEASON TO DATE

WINS????????? 27
LOSSES???????.. 19
PUSH?????????.. 1
WIN PCT???????. 58.6

SIDES????????? 11--8--1
TOTALS???????? 6--3
HALF/QUARTERS??? 4--3
TEASERS???????. 1-1
HALFTIMES?????? 5--5
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WEEK 2 RESULTS: 11-6 on straight bets and 3-3 on halftimes ? for 14-9 overall.

ST LOUIS +1 (FIRST HALF) -- LOST
HOUSTON +3 -- LOST
HOUSTON +1.5 (FIRST HALF) -- LOST
JACKSONVILLE +3 -- WON
JAX / DENVER UNDER 40 -- WON
WASHINGTON -3 -- LOST
SEATTLE -2.5 -- WON
SAN DIEGO +3.5 -- LOST
INDIANAPOLIS +1 -- WON
MIAMI / CINCINNATI UNDER 39.5 -- WON
MIA +5.5 (game) -- WON
MIA +3 (1H) -- WON
MIA +.5 (1Q) -- WON
MIA +.5 (2Q) -- WON
MIA +.5 (3Q) -- LOST
MIA +.5 (4Q) -- WON
TEASER: INDY +7 / NEW -2 -- WON

HALFTIMES:

BALT/PITT ? LOST
CHI/GB ? WON
DEN/JAX ? WON
CAR/KC ? LOST
TB/SEA ? WON
TENN/INDY -- LOST

Some Comments: The ?Killer Sports? angle took its first loss in 14 years when the Chargers failed to cover versus NYJ. The same angle applied to JAX (which covered) ? so this angle is now on a 25-1 run since 1990?..So-called ?bad? teams, defined as teams that stunk in Week 1 covered overwhelmingly the second week as CAR, MIA, CHI, and NYG all beat the number?..Going against the over--hyped ?public? teams was a winning formula as GB, KC, WAS, and DEN all lost (SEA and NYJ did cover)?..Halftimes are treading .500 thus far, as all the angles have related to the 13 and 17 first-half point totals. Second-half lines on these games are stuck around 17 in most situations, far below the usual 18-19 range of previous seasons. I think linesmakers are catching on to the angles and have made adjustments??JAX and DET may be two of the worst 2-0 teams in NFL history. The Lions have combined for just 28 first downs in two games. Jags aren?t much better, but have developed into one of the premier defenses. Watch for these two teams to come crashing down when they face better competition next week (PHILA at DET and JAX at TENN)?.HOU outgained the Lions by 180 yards and dominated time of possession, but four turnovers killed the Texans. Turnovers also destroyed WAS and SDI.


TONIGHT?S GAME:

PHILADELPHIA -3
Comments: This looks to be a breakout game for the Eagles, who have repeatedly come up short in primetime home games ? whether it was the NFC championship games or appearances on MNF. I?d make this line -4 or perhaps even -4.5 based on Eagles home field advantage and edge in talent. Vikings are a formidable offense, but should have a challenge against this very aggressive defense. I also think the Eagles will control the line of scrimmage and time of possession ? helping to keep Culpepper and Co. off the field. Last week, Vikings wore down the fatigued Cowboys defense ? but won?t be able to do the same in this game. I?m also unconvinced that the Vikings have a serious running attack. If Minnesota wins and covers it will have to be through the air ? and Eagles have one of the best secondaries in the NFL. Home team, with lots to prove laying just a field goal is a bargain here. Playing Eagles -3.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[Nolan Dalla]

NFL WEEK 3

TENN -6
Comments: This is an early bet, before the line moves to -6.5 or perhaps even -7. I expect public will anticipate the Titans bouncing back this week. Titans have looked weak defensively, but JAX offense has looked terrible first two games and doesn't have the consistency to exploit the Titans, especially on the road. Most who watched the INDY game must admit that Titans could very well have won the game, had it not been for a few breaks in the 4Q. Jags are in a very uncharacterisitc spot and won't go on the road and play with nearly as much urgency as the Titans, who are a legitimate playoff team primed for a blowout win. Titans faced a similar spot in Week 1 against a weak offense and covered easily versus Miami. This line should be 7, so I'm taking the great value here at -6 (Millinum and Oly as of Sunday night.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[djv]

GL and I also like Philly tonight for what it's worth. Phily still has the edge with the D over Minn. And the better D at home should bring the cover.

 

[bej0101]

like both eagles and titans too..gl2us :142lmao:

 

[Rudy]

Nice nightcap to a good weekend. Are we going to see the pool work from your friend Goldman again this year?

 

[Nolan Dalla]

I'll try and post it, if there is any interest. YOu are the first person to ask, so I'll see if I can include it in the weekly write ups.

--Nolan

 

[FED]

nolan where do i click to see your weekly write ups? last year i remember just going into the handicapers section but i cant find it this year.

great start, good work, it sure is not easy to do!

 

[Nolan Dalla]

I'll probably post them here at the MESSAGE FORUM. However, my main focus this year is on capping and betting, looking for opportunities -- not writing so much. I bet a ton of props and halftimes and can't get to the site in time to post, so I have to just put up some opinions on the sides and totals. I do this just as much to gain feeback (note how early some of the posts are going up).

I firmly belive that the real money is in hedging, middling, halftimes, quarters and props. Sides is probably the LEAST POTENTIALLY PROFITABLE segment of wagering options, at least in my view. Oddly enough, more cappers concentrate more time on sides than anything else -- and I think that's a waste of time and talent when there is so much more out there.

Of course, I have to capt the games like everyone else, and a sides evaluation often leads to an opinion about a half, the quarters, the total, or a prop. So, perhaps the work isn't really a "waste."

I'd like to get back to writing and ranting at some point, but right now I am concentrating all my efforts on making a lot of money on football. Wife and I just bought a house in LV, so I'm learning how to plant a garden.

Nolan