I posted this on another site & will just copy it over rather than more typing. GL
Doug Johnson has not played very well for ATL in Vick's absence, right? I'm not sure.
Actually, he has gone up against 5 solid Defenses that do a great job of stopping the run.
Dal, Wa, TB, Car & Min.
Car & TB are the 2 best D in the NFL imho.
Dal has been solid on D for sever al years & only better with Tuna & a bit of offense.
WA has been tough against the run.
MINN D is much improved this year & very tough to run on, which is why they were able to shut down SF so effectively. They also held Ahman Green to 53 yards. Green is averaging 129 ypg in his other 5.
STL overall team defense is not quite on a par with those 5, except maybe WA. ATL put up 31 points against WA.
Other than their games against TB & Car monster defenses, ATL offense has generated 5 scores in each of their games against Wa, Dal, & Min.
STL gives up more rushing Yards Per Game than any of the 5 teams the Rams have played. I see absolutely no reason to think that ATL won't be more effective running the ball than they have been, giving them at least 5 opportunities in STL territory. A more effective running game = more time for Johnson. He has been sacked an average of 3 times per game so far & has thrown 2 INT's per game as well. On the positive side, he is completing 60% of his passes & gets Finneran back, which will help. ATL offensive plan has made more effective use of the strengths of Duckett & Dunn the past couple weeks. Everything points to a decent game for the Falcons offense.
ATL also has a slight advantage on special teams.
I see ATL scoring 1 - 2 TDS along with 3-4 FG attempts. It is far less likely based on relative strengths of the ATL offensive unit & the STL defensive unit that ATL would go without a TD. Therefore my conclusion as the most likely scenario is 1 TD & 4 FG (19 points) or 2 TD & 3 FG (23 points) for the Falcons.
Moving to the other side of the ball, there is no reason to think that STL will not score at least 3 TD - probably 4-5 along with a couple of FG attempts.
This game should go over 50 based on the numbers, & don't forget to factor in the MNF trend of high scoring games.
I'd have to say that it is as likely to go over 60 as it is to go under 45.
Final Conclusion:
A strong play of 10 Units on OVER 45.
GL
Doug Johnson has not played very well for ATL in Vick's absence, right? I'm not sure.
Actually, he has gone up against 5 solid Defenses that do a great job of stopping the run.
Dal, Wa, TB, Car & Min.
Car & TB are the 2 best D in the NFL imho.
Dal has been solid on D for sever al years & only better with Tuna & a bit of offense.
WA has been tough against the run.
MINN D is much improved this year & very tough to run on, which is why they were able to shut down SF so effectively. They also held Ahman Green to 53 yards. Green is averaging 129 ypg in his other 5.
STL overall team defense is not quite on a par with those 5, except maybe WA. ATL put up 31 points against WA.
Other than their games against TB & Car monster defenses, ATL offense has generated 5 scores in each of their games against Wa, Dal, & Min.
STL gives up more rushing Yards Per Game than any of the 5 teams the Rams have played. I see absolutely no reason to think that ATL won't be more effective running the ball than they have been, giving them at least 5 opportunities in STL territory. A more effective running game = more time for Johnson. He has been sacked an average of 3 times per game so far & has thrown 2 INT's per game as well. On the positive side, he is completing 60% of his passes & gets Finneran back, which will help. ATL offensive plan has made more effective use of the strengths of Duckett & Dunn the past couple weeks. Everything points to a decent game for the Falcons offense.
ATL also has a slight advantage on special teams.
I see ATL scoring 1 - 2 TDS along with 3-4 FG attempts. It is far less likely based on relative strengths of the ATL offensive unit & the STL defensive unit that ATL would go without a TD. Therefore my conclusion as the most likely scenario is 1 TD & 4 FG (19 points) or 2 TD & 3 FG (23 points) for the Falcons.
Moving to the other side of the ball, there is no reason to think that STL will not score at least 3 TD - probably 4-5 along with a couple of FG attempts.
This game should go over 50 based on the numbers, & don't forget to factor in the MNF trend of high scoring games.
I'd have to say that it is as likely to go over 60 as it is to go under 45.
Final Conclusion:
A strong play of 10 Units on OVER 45.
GL
