Mo Philly stuff - Monday

[Jimboski]

The best thing about today is that there are a few longshots that have a shot. But, having a shot ain't as good as "looking like a weiner". At least there are a couple more playable races than yesterday.

6th race
Zactas -> 3,4 top/bot 6,8. Also just a few trifectas, 2 stinkin dollar variety -> 1/3,6/3,6 and 6/1,3/1,3. That shouldn't hurt too much. I'll be checking out that no. 8 hoss but it has to look GOOD and be at least at it's M.L. odds (8-1) to play it on the side. Think that one could hit the board.

7th race
Not confident about these picks. Here's what I got marked down -> 5.6 top/bot 3/9. Also, no. 3 to Win, only and also box the 5-6 zactas. Like I wrote yesterday, I like the idea of making exotic combos at this track cause of the generous payoffs. STILL, ya gotta like the horses and not just bet for the sake of betting.

9th race
Nos. 7 and 8 look to me like very serious longshots (8-1 and 12-1 respectively). The plan is to wheel one top/bot and play the other one straight. Right now, I don't know which one is gonna get the wheel job.

10th race
Dirt bombs galore in this race. It'll be VERY easy for me to skip this race if I catch something really nice earlier in the day, but here's what I got marked in case anybody's interested -> zacks, 7.9 top/bot with 4,6,10. No. 2 Win/Place on the side.

Good luck y'awl.

 

[kozski61]

Good Luck Bro. I have some stuff to get done this am but hopefully I'll be back later. Thanks for the post.

-Koz :SIB

 

[Jimboski]

Thanks, koz

Looks like it's gonna be up to "Brandon" for me. They're heading to the starting gate as I write this.

see ya later.

 

[Jimboski]

Ugh! Best thing that happened to me today is that I got back the bets on the no. 7 in the 9th cause him's was scratched.

Looks like I'm stuck with sorting out the dirt bags in the 10th :mj01:

 

[Jimboski]

got bets with 2,6,7,9 only 2 mins. to post.

 

[Jimboski]

Two favorites come in 9-6. Philly needs to put PLENTY of icing on this cake for me today.

Poyoffs not up yet.

 

[Jimboski]

wrap up and mo

wrap up and mo

:wtf: $19.40, bet $24 in that race.

How bout some HOSS TALK (more valuable than picks for MJers/Peepers that think about whats going on at the twacks and they way to playem)? .... . .

4th: Putting the zacta bets together is a BIG part of the objective and I do spend time trying to get that part right. I usually avoid watching the two horses (3,4 in this case) on one side of the equation come in for a nice exacta payoff that I MISSED. Would trifectas been better in this wace? FOR SHO! Hmm.. and 3 of the 4 picks were the trifecta, SHEET!
I gotta look into adding two box exactas, 1 for each side of the "equation", ... in this case it woulda been boxing 3-4 and 6-8 for $8 additional dollars in the total bet amount. Still not sure if that would be worthwhile though. So far, I've done well avoiding the "zacta on same side" syndrome (hows that for a 50 cent word?) so it may not be worthwhile doing anything different.

7th: See that no. 5 hoss? That was the ONLY one I had THREE others with in exactas. What an exacta ($196) to miss. Fact is - I wouldn't have included that no. 3, who completed the zacta, anyway, didn't care for that one. No second thoughts for this race.

9th: Immediately obvious that today was not no. 8's day to run a race. Good start and no pace at all for the entire backstretch. Horse just wasn't right at all TODAY. Prob. a good thing the no. 7 returned bets.

10th: You're really taking your chances betting on the Philly dirt bombs. I am noticing that the favorite wins these kinda races more often than not. But who wants to put the bigger bucks on a DIRT BOMB?

Summary - skipping races is a GOOD THING, not doing that could be very bad for the ole bankaroo.

Is it TUE$day yet??

 

[bjfinste]

Work will likely put me near the track tomorrow morning, so very interested in your Philly plays (if you have time to post them, of course) tomorrow.

 

[Jimboski]

Philly - Tuesday

Philly - Tuesday

Hmm... well even though you must be a "Peeper", I'm gonna put all I got into finding something today. BTW, I do that everytime I play even though it doesn't look like it lately.

Misc. stuff first
Gonna add my top three rated hosses for the playable races. How cum? Cause I'm getting a little sick of seeing my 3 top RATED hosses make up trifectas that I DIDN'T play, Grrr!

I only play AND HANDiCAP a few races/day, yet it happened TWICE on Sat/Sunday (don't remember if it was both on Sat or Sun or one each day). I DO know that it also happened TWICE yesterday (6th and last race) and in that dang 6th race, that I lost moola, the freakin order of my RATED picks were EXACTLY how they finished in that race. Tri. paid $131.20. FLUCK! Yeah, not a big tri. but FLUCK anyways.

NOT suggesting just boxing the top three rated horses for each playable race though. My bestest success came from adding two more steps...

1. usually adjust the play by using WHAT I KNOW about the horses in the race. Owners, trainers and jockeys are already adjusted when I rate them. I ONLY follow Philly and the horse colony at this track; so this step is important.

2. To a lesser degree - I may also adjust the combinations (the way the NUMBERS should fall) for exotic bets. I never stick a deadbeat cause his program no. is a good match for others in the exotic plays though.

Tellyas, I put the hours into handicapping 3 or 4 stinkin races.. do I eva!

Ok, lets "do it" as they say....

4th race: I'm playing over $40 worth of small (mostly $2) exotics in this race. That definitely was not the gameplan when I started looking at this race. Too many combos (tries and zactas) to list, but, for the sake of posting, let's say that pretty much the keys are the nos. 6 and 7. Number 8 hoss, McClean's Gap (10-1) looks like a live longshot in this race so yas may want to do something with that one.
Almost fergots.. the ratings are - 7-6-4

6th race: I cannot separate these hosses. Gotta see them and still may not bet a thing cause the risk/reward thingy doesn't look good. That is, the zotics may be small in this race.
Ratings are 7,8 are tried for first place, then 3, then 6.

9th race: Similar to the 4th race, but not nearly as many plays, so I'll list my plays...
Trifectas: 1/2,4,8/2,4,8 and zacktas -> 2,4,8 OVER no. 1 (more than $2 tickets), and side play on no. 8 (12-1 M.L.) to Win and Place.
(Be careful with this race, bjfinste, Turf ain't my specialty and it ain't gonna be easy to beat that no. 4. And, if they take this race off the turf (doubt that will happen) then no. 9 (12-1) is definitely the pick. I may throw a few bucks on that one anyways. Ratings are -> 1,4,2.

10th race: Two broads (owners) rule this track, Esp. Lisa Guerrero. Their hosses are no. 10 and 11. Seem like EVERY day that the last race has a good sized, competitive field and what happens?... the favorite dirt bag wins and usually the second choice is right behind it. The owners of the two outside hosses almost ensure that's what's gonna happen again today. Still, I AIN'T biting...

No 4, Saint Gold, is the one I pick to upset the apple cart today. I think this one IS worth the risk/reward thingy, bjfinste. That doesn't mean going overboard on ANY wace though :nono:
I'm gonna play the "Saint", small across the board (a little heavier to Show) and also these zactas...
no. 4 top/bot with 2,5,10,11.

Going home with more in yer pocket (even if it ain't much) than you came in with is what it's all about. This track will giftya a bonanza payout from time to time anyways. I'm way overdue to one of them.

Good Luck today. (Sheesh, hope I didn't make ya late for work today, reading all this stuff, bjfinste.

 

[kozski61]

Good Luck today jimboski. I watch a lot of Parx racing but it's rough for me to find time to cap the track cause of it's post time. Get'em today. -Koz

 

[bjfinste]

Appreciate it Jimboski! Taking a stab with a few of these.

 

[Jimboski]

Wrap up

Wrap up

Guess the wrap up goes here?

I JUST wrote a BOOK in here, doorbell rings, 10 minutes later I come back to puter (it's in sleep mode), hit key and EVERYthing it was doing was freakin GONE. Puter rebooted, just not my day.

koz, just watching them is how I got started sticking with Philly. When I was on a HOT, HOT, streak that lasted months - early speedsters reined at this track. Now you're seeing closers do well. IMO, tracks that favor closers (Philly isn't quite in that category yet) are MUCH tougher to cap. Think the change in Philly racing started to happen after they ovr-hauled the track after a lot of snow problems a couple of seasons ago. Maybe not :shrug:

bjfinste, I guess you relied on the plays instead of the RATINGS. Dang! Me too

Still, wasn't that bad of a day and skipping plenty of races is a GOOD THING. You can't get badly burnt doing that and you STILL can catch a BIG Philly lunker too.



No way I can type or remember all I wrote, so just to summarize it...

Today, it pretty much happened again
- Philly is trying to tell me to "STOP INTERFERING WITH THE RATINGS".. . . .. .

Race -- Ratings ----------------------> Finish Results
4th -- 7,6,4 ----------------------------------->3,6,7
6th -- 7 and 8 tied,3,6 ---------------------->7,8,1(no. 1 HUGE fav.)
9th -- 1,4,2 (no. 2 scratched) --------------> 1,4,6
10th -- 5,10,2 -------------------------------> 10,7,2

Payoffs weren't bad; Ill let the serious players look them up.

Pretty much the same thing last week too. During the months long stretch that I was hotter than hell - my "two cents" along with the RATINGS helped and delivered some VERY nice payoffs too. Go figure? :mj03:

BTW, that "Saint" hoss ran a good 2nd half and looked pretty good as well. Nomally that would mean getting it on the "Horses to Watch List". Funny thing is that used to work GREAT back in my N.Y. racing days. But, for whatever reason, my "Philly Watch List" needs to be renamed to "Horses to Avoid". Don't get that either?

Horse to watch = liked the horse, played it, looked/ran pretty good, big odds (Saint went off at something like 30-1), and ran in decent size field.

Start usual 3 day mini-vacation from gamblin, Ahh!