MOnday--Boston Vs. Athletics

[ontyme]

Game 5 big game lots of nerves. How will it go?? I believe that Pedro will be strong tonight. Tonight has all the makings of a low scoring tight game. A few questions are in hand though, what are they?/ They are 1. Zito is on 3 days rest, his great curve ball may not be as sharp.
2. Oaklands bullpen is burnt.
3. Pedro had high pitch count in game 1.

First of all, i believe Zito will be strong tonight, combined with a high pressure game, Hitters will not be relaxed at the plate. I feel Boston will be taking a lot of pitches early to make Zito work, and try and get to the bullpen. The next question, is oakland bullpen burnt, I say maybe but feel in a game 5 situation at home, adrenaline takes over. I think they all will be ready. Same for Pedro, Boston has great team chemistry, and Pedro wants this game more than anyone. He was going to pitch relief in game 3. They have kim in the pen that is more than rested, and his stuff was electric in his appearance. Their is also more added pressure on Oak, considering they lost 2 games they should have won. Hitters will be pressing and chasing pitches. Another factor to consider is this is a 8 o'clock game eastern but 5 o'clock pacific--that means early in this game(first 3 or 4 innings)--their will be shadows. Its going to be tough on hitters early to pick up the ball, and i feel the more into the game its tight and no scoring, the more pressure it puts on both teams offensively.--So obviously i will be playing Boston game under 7--and i have to play Boston---Pedro will be great tonight, and the only ? about Boston all year has been their pen, and they have been the strong pt. and the reason they win the last 2. So combined with Bullpen, Pedro, and a team that seems to have the Karma that the Cubs have, will play Boston---they have the hitting to score and never be out of a ball game. Gotta go with Boston and under.

Final plays: Boston game under 7 6 units

Boston to win 4 units

Parlay: Tampa Bay mline/ boston game under 7 6 units/ to win 10.5 units

Tampa baymline/boston 6 units to win8.5 units roughly.


1 more note: I'm really confident about Pedro pitching great tonight, so if Zito brings his A game--then the game goes under no problem. But if Zito gets rocked than the game could go over but Boston will win. I do not see Pedro getting rocked and the game going over. So feel i have 1 for sure. Hopefully Zito is effective and Boston finds another clucth hit late to win it.

 

[ontyme]

1 more thought while its fresh in my head:

The runline??? I was thinking Oakland +1.5 was a better play then Boston--because this game will be tight the whole way, and Oakland could win, with the run and a half--is less juice than Boston--Oakland +1.5-120 but the reason i layed off Oakland run-line is because 1. the run-line has changed to Oak +1.5 -130 to Oak +1.5 -120--and with Oak bullpen being used a lot this series, possiblitity they could give up one late in 8th or 9th getting to bat all 9 times.Although i feel Oak bullpen will be good, just feel better chance Boston wins with a strong outing from Pedro.

 

[heleanth]

6 units to win 15 units??

What book is that at, I would be interested...

In your write-up, I tend to agree with your statement that the adrenalin will be flowing tonight and that will keep Zito going on all cylinders. I think Pedro may tend to overthrow tonight and you can bet the Oakland hitters will be waiting him out and trying not to chase balls out of the strike zone. Pedro will have to throw another 130 pitches if he is going to get through 7 innings tonight.

Oakland has to get to the Sox BP early tonight to win, I think. I would be surprised to see Zito go more than 6. If the game goes under, I think Boston wins. Oakland will have to score at least 4 to win, I think.

Good luck to you and all.

 

[dottom]

Remember in game #1 Pedro wanted that very badly as well,a nd Boston had great team chemistry then but Pedro was not vintage Pedro.

130 pitches is highest he's thrown all season.

A lot of people are saying "oh it's Pedro" or something similar to justify jumping on Sox, but keep in mind this year's Pedro isn't the same Pedro as in years past. This very same reasoning didn't work in game #1 either. Yes, Zito is on 3-days rest, but Pedro threw 130 pitches last game. Zito had a "low stress" game as he had a 5-run lead from the 2nd inning on.

Everyone jumping on Sox with momentum but you cannot discount the home field advantage and the DOG LINE with Zito. Remember that Zito is 2-0 vs. Boston this year, and Pedro is 0-2 vs. Oakland. Oakland is 59-24 at home this year and have won L6 at home. Boston is a .500 team on the road, and this includes Pedro road starts where Boston is 8-8 (including last two road games at Oakland this year where Pedro lost).

I'm not trying to turn you off of Boston, and I know emotions are high as much as we all try to be non-bias in our capping. I'm just laying out the data which you need to use to make an educated decision. My point is don't let the "Pedro mystique -- best pitcher in baseball" theory cloud your judgement.

If you take Boston, you are laying wood on the road team (.500 on road, .500 pitcher on road, lost last 2 games in Oakland), in the loudest home game of the season to date, vs. the opposing staff's Ace, against a team that has won L6 and is 59-24 @home.

If this were a pickem line, as I believe it should be, then you can convince me about intangibles (Sox momentum, Oakland non-clutch performance last 4 playoff series including this one)... but realize that the current line is a total over-reaction to JohnQ public pounding Boston/Pedro and Oakland's inability to close out series. Take those things aside and focus just on the game itself-- the pitchers, hitters, matchups, previous mtgs, team record @home vs. road, pitchers record @home vs. road, and venue-- then make the best non-bias play you can!

Personally, I will pound Oakland runline if I can get it -120 or better. Otherwise, wait for game time and take Oakland around +150. At +140 or higher I think there is great value on Oakland.

Good luck to all.

 

[ontyme]

heleanth-=--my mistake 6units to win 10.5 units--i got 110 on the total--(local) i'm editing right now

 

[ontyme]

dottom--I aggree if u go with Oak--the run-line is the best way to go, yes they can win--but why not grab the run and a half--cause this game appears to be tight. I never said Pedro was the best pitcher in baseball, I feel Mark Prior is the best pitcher in baseball. I have the Cubs to win the World Series--but that is another subject. U do bring up good pts about Pedro, but i feel game 5 a high pressure situation favors the pitchers. No hitter has success when they are pressing or trying to hard. Hell Burkett held Oak to 4, and Boston pen is looking like its filled with Cy youngs. ALthough this game could go either way, the under seems the safest way to go, WHY?? SHadows--big foul grounds, pressing hitters, 2 aces going.. Umps will give those pitchers pitch. and your right about the line being inflated a bit. Pedro was -150 in game 1 a whole 10 cents higher, but with the factor of the A's bullpen being used and Zito on 3 days rest is all in Question. My opinion, Pedro will pitch great, i know his fastball does not get up in the mid 90's no more, but we may see him a little more pumped up tonight. U bring up solid pts, and i have considered them, Oak on the run-line appears to be a solid bet, considering i think the game is tight and low scoring.But i thought they would be more juice on Oak +1.5 when actually it has come down from -130+1.5 to -120 +1.5--that is what the deciding factor in playing Boston--along with i just feel Boston--finds a way to win tonight stemming from a strong outing from Pedro--good luck and look foward to more of your insightful post.--dottom