- Dec 22, 2008
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We have some great matchups on tap for this evening especially in the Big East. Should be fun to watch! Onto the games.
Notre Dame -5 *** (3 Units)
This game looks great on paper and you can make a case for both teams. However based on my analysis this game comes up a lot like the North Carolina/Maryland game last night. After watching the only team ahead of you in the standings lose the day before giving you an open opportunity to sneak up and perhaps win the conference, that gives you so much extra motivation. I feel this is not being factored into the line enough. Then you take into account that the Irish being undefeated at home and winning by an average of 9.5 points at home in the Big East. The margin of victory stays relatively the same (9.2)against the upper echelon of the conference as well including a 14 point victory over Georgetown and a 15 pointer against St. Johns. Villanova is struggling mightily right now and I do not see anything changing in the 48 hours since their last loss. The Wildcats have lost 4 of their past 6 which includes a loss to Rutgers. Within their two wins, they needed overtime against DePaul which characterizes how bad their perimeter shooting has been. The Irish know with a win they get closer to a possible Big East title, but more importantly they secure a guaranteed double bye in the conference tourney. Take the points.
Kansas St/Texas Under 136.5 *** (3 Units)
This is an interesting matchup as the Wildcats are playing so well and Texas is coming off a horrendous choke job on Saturday where they squandered a 22 point lead to lose to Colorado. Tonight looks to be tough to know precisely how well K.State can continue this resurgent play. What I do know is the Longhorns will be focused and poised on defense where they are only allowing 57 PPG on their home floor. At the same time, Henriquez and Kelly have become a strong inside presence for the Wiildcats making scoring much more difficult for opponents. I think Texas comes out with an authority and will want to make a statement on the defensive end while being patient on the offensive front. With K.State playing better in the paint as well, I think we have a great recipe for an under. Perhaps a 68-61 type game. Like the under here.
Idaho St +7 ** (2 Units)
This line came up a little too high. Both teams need this game. The Bears trying for the top seed and the Bengals needing to win to make the tournament. With senior night on tap it should be emotional in their final home game. 3 of their top 4 players are seniors and will be being honored tonight. Gilchrest, Busma, and Taylor should be extra hungry in their last game at Holt Arena and not wanting to see their season end too soon. The Bengals have also shown they can make adjustments and play well after coming off of adversity like big losses. After being beaten bad by Utah State they came back and beat Troy, then the Bears beat them bad but they came back and played very well against Weber, and the same against Montana both times. So they don't get down. I think with the extra emotional motivation and needing to win to make the tournament, I'll back the home team here.
Good luck everyone!
Best,
Kaiser
2011 NCAA Record
54-49 (+19 Units)
Notre Dame -5 *** (3 Units)
This game looks great on paper and you can make a case for both teams. However based on my analysis this game comes up a lot like the North Carolina/Maryland game last night. After watching the only team ahead of you in the standings lose the day before giving you an open opportunity to sneak up and perhaps win the conference, that gives you so much extra motivation. I feel this is not being factored into the line enough. Then you take into account that the Irish being undefeated at home and winning by an average of 9.5 points at home in the Big East. The margin of victory stays relatively the same (9.2)against the upper echelon of the conference as well including a 14 point victory over Georgetown and a 15 pointer against St. Johns. Villanova is struggling mightily right now and I do not see anything changing in the 48 hours since their last loss. The Wildcats have lost 4 of their past 6 which includes a loss to Rutgers. Within their two wins, they needed overtime against DePaul which characterizes how bad their perimeter shooting has been. The Irish know with a win they get closer to a possible Big East title, but more importantly they secure a guaranteed double bye in the conference tourney. Take the points.
Kansas St/Texas Under 136.5 *** (3 Units)
This is an interesting matchup as the Wildcats are playing so well and Texas is coming off a horrendous choke job on Saturday where they squandered a 22 point lead to lose to Colorado. Tonight looks to be tough to know precisely how well K.State can continue this resurgent play. What I do know is the Longhorns will be focused and poised on defense where they are only allowing 57 PPG on their home floor. At the same time, Henriquez and Kelly have become a strong inside presence for the Wiildcats making scoring much more difficult for opponents. I think Texas comes out with an authority and will want to make a statement on the defensive end while being patient on the offensive front. With K.State playing better in the paint as well, I think we have a great recipe for an under. Perhaps a 68-61 type game. Like the under here.
Idaho St +7 ** (2 Units)
This line came up a little too high. Both teams need this game. The Bears trying for the top seed and the Bengals needing to win to make the tournament. With senior night on tap it should be emotional in their final home game. 3 of their top 4 players are seniors and will be being honored tonight. Gilchrest, Busma, and Taylor should be extra hungry in their last game at Holt Arena and not wanting to see their season end too soon. The Bengals have also shown they can make adjustments and play well after coming off of adversity like big losses. After being beaten bad by Utah State they came back and beat Troy, then the Bears beat them bad but they came back and played very well against Weber, and the same against Montana both times. So they don't get down. I think with the extra emotional motivation and needing to win to make the tournament, I'll back the home team here.
Good luck everyone!
Best,
Kaiser
2011 NCAA Record
54-49 (+19 Units)
