YTD RECORD MLB: 57-35 (+18.88 UNITS)
It's been a very good weekend. Not a whole lot I'm thrilled about on Monday, but I do really like one play and I'll try it for 2 units:
ATLANTA -163 (HUDSON VS WRIGHT LISTED)(2 UNITS)
This game is a complete mismatch. Let's take a look.
In my opinion, Colorado's starter Jamey Wright is a very bad fit for pitching at Coors Field..most pitchers are, but him especially. The guy has always been a nibbler and tends to walk a lot of batters while running his pitch count up early in games. The last thing you want to do at Coors is put extra runners on base via the walk...it can only get you in trouble. Throw in the fact that he has never pitched well at Coors, it doesn't look good for him. Here are his Career numbers at Coors as well as his numbers at Coors this season:
Wright in 2 Home starts at Coors this season: 0-2 with a 13.94 ERA and has given up 19 hits(3 home runs) and 4 walks in just 10.1 innings pitched.
Wright in 55 career starts at Coors Field is 13-18 with a 6.85 ERA and has given up 415 hits(48 home runs) and 147 walks in 322 innings pitched. In other words, he's allowing nearly 2 runners to reach base per inning over that long span of 322 career innings.
A big thing when you break down the above number is the fact that Wright only has 13 winning decisions in 55 career starts at Coors. That's 42 starts out of 55 starts where he has either lost or where the bullpen has gotten the decision. Now this is not a good thing when you take this fact a bit further and look at bullpen numbers for Colorado:
Colorado's bullpen at home might be the worst pen at home in the Majors having an ERA of 9.09 at home and there's a good chance the pen will see 4 or more innings in this game especially if Wright's pitch count runs up high early.
Also, in case you were wondering, several of Atlanta's big boppers have had very good success vs Wright. Here are a few of their career averages and On Base Percentages vs him:
Andruw Jones...6 for 16 lifetime(.375 average) to go along with an OBP of .474
Chipper Jones...10 for 25 lifetime(.400 average) with an OBP of .531
Brian Jordan...10 for 24 lifetime(.417 average) with an OBP of .462
Raul Mondesi..3 for 8 lifetime(.375 average) with an OBP of .444
Hudson gets the start for Atlanta in this game and I think the only thing that's keeping this line from being a lot higher is the fact that it's Hudson's first career start at Coors Field. Of course this works both ways, meaning most of the Colorado hitters have very little if any experience vs him and that definitely favors the pitcher.
Hudson is also a pretty good fit for this ballpark in my opinion(at least as good of fit as any pitcher could possibly be at Coors). The guy is a groundballer and is always near the top of the leaders in groundball/flyball ratio and that's exactly what you want at Coors Field. Pitcher's are always more effective in this ballpark when the ball is hit on the ground and he's one of the best in baseball at inducing ground balls and inducing groundball double plays when he needs it. I checked this season and so far his groundball/flyball ratio is 59-35.
Hudson will usually go deep into games, but maybe not quite as deep in this one just because of the ballpark factor, but it's also nice to see that Atlanta's bullpen on the Road has been very impressive with an ERA of 2.11 so far this season.
Good luck to all :thumb:
-ndnfan
It's been a very good weekend. Not a whole lot I'm thrilled about on Monday, but I do really like one play and I'll try it for 2 units:
ATLANTA -163 (HUDSON VS WRIGHT LISTED)(2 UNITS)
This game is a complete mismatch. Let's take a look.
In my opinion, Colorado's starter Jamey Wright is a very bad fit for pitching at Coors Field..most pitchers are, but him especially. The guy has always been a nibbler and tends to walk a lot of batters while running his pitch count up early in games. The last thing you want to do at Coors is put extra runners on base via the walk...it can only get you in trouble. Throw in the fact that he has never pitched well at Coors, it doesn't look good for him. Here are his Career numbers at Coors as well as his numbers at Coors this season:
Wright in 2 Home starts at Coors this season: 0-2 with a 13.94 ERA and has given up 19 hits(3 home runs) and 4 walks in just 10.1 innings pitched.
Wright in 55 career starts at Coors Field is 13-18 with a 6.85 ERA and has given up 415 hits(48 home runs) and 147 walks in 322 innings pitched. In other words, he's allowing nearly 2 runners to reach base per inning over that long span of 322 career innings.
A big thing when you break down the above number is the fact that Wright only has 13 winning decisions in 55 career starts at Coors. That's 42 starts out of 55 starts where he has either lost or where the bullpen has gotten the decision. Now this is not a good thing when you take this fact a bit further and look at bullpen numbers for Colorado:
Colorado's bullpen at home might be the worst pen at home in the Majors having an ERA of 9.09 at home and there's a good chance the pen will see 4 or more innings in this game especially if Wright's pitch count runs up high early.
Also, in case you were wondering, several of Atlanta's big boppers have had very good success vs Wright. Here are a few of their career averages and On Base Percentages vs him:
Andruw Jones...6 for 16 lifetime(.375 average) to go along with an OBP of .474
Chipper Jones...10 for 25 lifetime(.400 average) with an OBP of .531
Brian Jordan...10 for 24 lifetime(.417 average) with an OBP of .462
Raul Mondesi..3 for 8 lifetime(.375 average) with an OBP of .444
Hudson gets the start for Atlanta in this game and I think the only thing that's keeping this line from being a lot higher is the fact that it's Hudson's first career start at Coors Field. Of course this works both ways, meaning most of the Colorado hitters have very little if any experience vs him and that definitely favors the pitcher.
Hudson is also a pretty good fit for this ballpark in my opinion(at least as good of fit as any pitcher could possibly be at Coors). The guy is a groundballer and is always near the top of the leaders in groundball/flyball ratio and that's exactly what you want at Coors Field. Pitcher's are always more effective in this ballpark when the ball is hit on the ground and he's one of the best in baseball at inducing ground balls and inducing groundball double plays when he needs it. I checked this season and so far his groundball/flyball ratio is 59-35.
Hudson will usually go deep into games, but maybe not quite as deep in this one just because of the ballpark factor, but it's also nice to see that Atlanta's bullpen on the Road has been very impressive with an ERA of 2.11 so far this season.
Good luck to all :thumb:
-ndnfan
