Monday Night Play

[Nick Douglas]

I posted this on my free picks page but I fogot to include the wager amount. Good luck tonight.

TENNESSEE +2.5 +105 over Baltimore 400/420 (SIA)

Interesting matchup as the one positive of Tennessees offense happens to be the one area where Baltimore struggles, the short to mid range passing game. It feels odd writing this, but this is a battle of second class citizens in the AFC so positioning for the Wild Card is crucial here. Baltimore still has not proven the ability to produce consistent offense with Cunningham. With Rolle and much of the rest of the Tennessee defense finally healthy, they should be able to force Randall into a few mistakes. This is actually a somewhat even matchup but getting a team of equal talent at home on Monday night with points makes this a really nice play.

 

[Unicorn]

FYI, I'm fairly certain that Grbac is starting for the Ravens...

 

[casper]

yes Grbac is starting tonight, but the road is not a good place to be after having not played in almost a month. also the ravens are playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks. ravens haven't been very good on the road...

at pitt--win 13-10 with 4 missed fg's by pitt
at cleve-- cleve up 24-6, trash in 4th make it a 24-14 cleve win
at gb-- gb up 31-10, trash in 4th make it a 31-23 gb win
at den-- win 20-13 with 3 t/o's by den
at cinc-- lose 21-10 but balt had 6 t/o's

if tenn can shut down balt's running game which could very well happen in front of the home crowd tenn will win this with grbac trying to win it with his arm, albeit against a shaky secondary. it is the passing defense that has been hurting the titans giving up over 8 yards per pass...their run D is playing well, giving up 3.5 yds/rush, while balt giving up 3.0 yds/rush. if it comes down to qb performance which it very well might i'd take mcnair at home even on an off year thus far over grbac on the road and not having played in 3 weeks. all in all it's very hard to win on the road if you can't get the running game going and take the crowd out of the game while keeping the home team D on the field.

i've seen some talk about emotional factors and some have pointed to balt being psyched up becuase they are in the spotlight for the first time this year and they are the champs and have something to prove, but this kind of emotion wears down IMO as opposed to home-field, must win emotion that tends to last and get stronger as the game progresses and the crowd gets into the game.

also, tenn is coming off a nice win at home with some drives that IMO have built up some confidence in mcnair. he brought 2 in himself last week and went 27-34 for 241 yds. let's not forget mcnair's mobility which gives him a large advantage and ability to make things happen, esp. on broken plays. grbac will not give you that and will take the sack or throw a pick.