under 43 looks very good to me (as does under 22 first half). tb has only scored two touchdowns all season. warner not hitting on all cylinders, tough tb defense and tb's inability to get into the endzone screams under to me. any thoughts?
monday night total
- Thread starter h3
- Start date
h3,
I too like the under. I was looking at it all week and think that Tampa Bay's offense is really overated, I think they will have trouble getting the ball in the endzone. Even more so than this is the weather for tonite's game, take a look-http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/USFL0481?par=usatoday&site=www.usatoday.com&promo=0. Calling for thunder storms. Rain usually leads to unders b/c there is more running of the ball and less passing so the play clock continues to click. However, you can get stung using this method if the wet ball leads to a # of costly turnovers where the defenses get easy scores.
I too like the under. I was looking at it all week and think that Tampa Bay's offense is really overated, I think they will have trouble getting the ball in the endzone. Even more so than this is the weather for tonite's game, take a look-http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/USFL0481?par=usatoday&site=www.usatoday.com&promo=0. Calling for thunder storms. Rain usually leads to unders b/c there is more running of the ball and less passing so the play clock continues to click. However, you can get stung using this method if the wet ball leads to a # of costly turnovers where the defenses get easy scores.
your reasons posted are the exact reasons i like the over:shrug:
TB has not scored much. but they are incorporateing a new offense. it takes time.
TB has had 3 weeks to work out the new Offensive schemes.. Gruden will find a way to put up points. its only a matter of time..
its also a matter of time till the Rams O gets going.. faulk, warner, holt, and the rest will only play sub par for so long.. what better night to break out than Monday Night Football!
good luck
TB has not scored much. but they are incorporateing a new offense. it takes time.
TB has had 3 weeks to work out the new Offensive schemes.. Gruden will find a way to put up points. its only a matter of time..
its also a matter of time till the Rams O gets going.. faulk, warner, holt, and the rest will only play sub par for so long.. what better night to break out than Monday Night Football!
good luck
as far as the weather.. it might help drive the total down before kick off.. but there is no proof that shows rainy games going consistently under........
the field can be slippery, which gives a huge advantage to WRs and RBs...
and like you said turnovers can be a problem in the rain with an under wager..
good luck
the field can be slippery, which gives a huge advantage to WRs and RBs...
and like you said turnovers can be a problem in the rain with an under wager..
good luck
I don't have numbers to back it up, but I would bet that well over 50% of the totals in rainy games go under. A wet ball is slippery, tougher to throw and catch. A wet field is slippery which can neutralize the speed. Agree that a WR has the edge over a DB in slop because they know which way they are cutting BUT they have to get the ball first. I think rain plays into the hands of the team that plays better smashmouth.
i agree. not convinced that the rain, in and of itself, causes lower scoring games but rather forces offenses (and defenses, at times) to be a little more conservative to protect the ball and prevent turnovers caused by sloppy conditions. couple this with offenses that have been rather non-productive to date and tb's defense, i don't see either offense getting into the endzone often. i see low scoring game decided by 3 or less. could go either way so +3 starting to look better.
thanks for responding and gl to all.
thanks for responding and gl to all.
A constant high wind will cause more unders then rain. First if rain is a down pour and that threating they will stop for a few minutes. If just average rain and things get a little slippery. The strong pass rush is first thing to get slowed down. This opens up the passing game. The receivers know where there going and many times defenders slip down. Some times in the rain because of this a team may throw more then normal. Runners can become harder to wrap up. Punts and kick offs can get shorter. This leaves shorter distance to go for scoring. Be carefull when its just rain. Get lots of wind and you got your under.
Well, I've been doing this for over 40 years now and it took a good 20 of them to realize (because I'm thick) that when it rains is no guarantee of an under. "djv" explaines this exactly how I was going too explain it. For sure the winds has a bigger effect on an under then the rain does unless, like djv said the down pours.
Good luck with your bet and do check out besides the rain more importantly the winds & gusts for the game.
GL
Carl
Good luck with your bet and do check out besides the rain more importantly the winds & gusts for the game.
GL
Carl
thanks for the back up guys..
i like it when it rains..
it usually means joe public will push the total down then i jump on the over.
good luck
i like it when it rains..
it usually means joe public will push the total down then i jump on the over.
good luck
