Monday, November 17

[superbook]

Yesterday: 1-0

YTD: 5-0

Vermont +11.5

Catamounts are a decent team with 01/02 league rookie of the year Sorrentine back this year (out all last year with broken wrists). He's a great complement to 02/03 league rookie of the year F Coppenrath. In all Vermont returns 3 starters to last years team which qualified for the NCAA tourney for the first time in the school's history...they got just blown out by AZ in the first round in part because the team had a terrible trip out west due to snowstorm delays.

Nevada is a good team and is the pre-season favorite to win the WAC. They return four starters to a team that averaged 76 ppg last season.

I like Vermont here because they are a good team and Nevada had real trouble closing last year:

- only 5 of their 18 wins were by more than 11.5 points
- 11 of their 14 losses were by less than 6


In other games:

Yale is one of the top three teams in the Ivy, but UConn is just too tough, especially at home. Hard to know how Yale will react to being down...Yale doesn't play the Princeton D, so this is bound to be a higher scoriong game...pass for me.

Brown is one of the worst teams in the Ivy this year...with the loss of leading scorer Earl Hunt, who will score? Forte is their only good player....they could easily be down by 24 at the half...pass for me.

Don't know these other teams...sorry.

 

[Heyward]

That is a good call. I got it at CRIS overnight at +12, but I don't think the half-point will make a difference (actually I think it's down to +10.5 now). Sorrentine has been playing in practice and in the exhibition games and doesn't seem to be having any trouble with his shot, so they should be able to hang within single digits for sure.

If Yale goes up to +25, that might be a play, but hard to tell if UConn will play with a killer instinct tonight. I wouldn't play Texas at -24, but you're correct that Brown suffered too many graduation losses for me to play them either. Good luck.

 

[stomie]

Very nice writeup SuperBook!

 

[superbook]

Heyward --

Sorrentine is 100%. He played 37 minutes in 11/4 exhibition game...didn't shoot that well (7-18) but looked good.

Other thing I didn't mention is that Vermont is a good shooting team...Nevada is good inside but susceptible to the outside jumper.

Line is now down to 9.5 at Oly.

 

[superbook]

Adding:

University Illinois-Chicago -9.5 (bought half a point)

UIC was upset by Oakland in round #2; a little bit of a let-down after the first round victory over a decent Irvine team just 24 hours earlier.

UIC was embarassed by that loss; their coach nearly got thrown out of the game at the end. They'll take out their frustration on hapless Mercer, in an attempt to justify their high pre-season ranking.

Mercer was a preseason pick to finish #6 in the Atlantic Sun conference and is minus one of their better players until December due to suspension.

 

[superbook]

Adding:

Oakland +400

I won't count moneylines toward my overall record but this is a solid play and I put a little beer money on it.

Xavier is the tourney host which gives them the home court advantage but they haven't show me anything so farby beating up on a couple of poor teams (Coppin State and Mercer)...while Oakland proved they are for real by taking care of UIC in their last outing.

Xavier will struggle for most of the season against better teams while they figure out how to fill David West's big shoes. Xavier is weak inside and Oakland should have the edge in the paint.

 

[superbook]

Just a couple more stats:

- Xavier was outrebounded by Mercer 38-33

- Xavier scored 36 of their 72 points vs Mercer in the paint. This won't happen vs Oakland.:shrug:

- Xavier hit just 12-21 FTs vs Mercer. Fletcher taught me don't bet on teams that can't make free throws.:nono:

 

[Heyward]

I'm not brave enough to take the moneyline, but Oakland +10 is definitely a play for me as well. Thanks for the stats from last night - outrebounded by Mercer? Jeeeeeze.......

When I said Sorrentine wasn't having trouble with his shot, I meant that his wrists weren't bothering him, not necessarily that his percentage was high. Still, he's scoring in double-digits and along with Coppenrath should be able to keep Vermont in the game.

I'm gonna lay off UIC until they show that they can play up to their potential, but good luck with that one.

Yale line has gotten hammered down to +19.

 

[UT-Longhorn]

Thanks SUPER for the great insight, tell me, are any of these games tonite stronger leans than the others? or are they pretty level across the board in strength? thanks

 

[superbook]

UT -- FWIW I've put more money on UIC than the other two but I think they're all solid.

- Jon

 

[MACH1]

Wow!! Great start Superbook!! I should have been in college hoops instead of the NFL...

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Great start to the year and great insight! GL

HORNS

 

[NY Reb]

Nice write-ups! I'm on two of your games, but you've said it all. Best of luck to you!

 

[Box and one]

superbook..were on opposite sides tonite.I got the line at -9.5 now.Vermont is good but I think they will have problems in the Reno.
Your right about Nev not putting anyone away and losing close games.But I think this yr they do better in that department.
GL

 

[Evilhomer]

Thanks for the UIC pick.

 

[SIMON]

WOW !!! Final 76-66

I took oakland +11

It's nice to get a win on a hook once in a while.

thanks...superbook

Simon

 

[Felonious Monk]

awesome job tonight superbook!

keep it up!!