As some of you know, I post over at [edit out site], and have been on fire most of the season, as I went 5-0 yesterday. Which brings my NFL Record to 13-5-1 (72%). Been killing them in college as well, as I nailed a nice +400 money-line Saturday along with a bevy of winners. In any case, tongiht I like...
Detroit +14 Yep, I am taking the dog. First things first, I am doing this too long, and one thing I learned a long time ago is this: BET the home-team underdog on Monday night! Thats it. I don't bet games, based on trends...although I am aware of them, and they are a factor in my capping, but to a much lesser extent than most. However, I don't fool around with this one. This 'system', from what I have saw (maybe somebody could give us the exact number) wins at around 70%. And the logic behind it, is what makes me like it so much. It fits my style of capping. Why? Well, lets look at it. I am sure many of you, as I have, have gone to a Monday night game. And there is no question the electricity is at a much higher pitch. The game takes on a lot more meaning. Its an event. Now, no team wants to get embarrassed on national t.v., in front of the home crowd, and lose. Add into the fact, that the Lions are aware that they are a 13 point underdog, and many believe they are going to lose bad...Its a Knute Rockne speech waiting to happen. And football is a game of emotion. Now, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that the Lions are over-matched talent wise. However, this game is a huge game for the Lions, as I am hearing they are hoping to use this game to get their season on track. Not to mention, as bad as people are saying Det is...they have only lost 2 games, on the ROAD, to two pretty good football teams (especially at home) the Packers, and Browns. Which is another misconception, people look to the whipping the Browns gave them, and think this is the Browns of old.(not the case, not to mention Detmer threw 7 int.) Another point, this is Detroits first game at home, a la the Steelers and Saints (who I had yesterday). There is no coincidence that they won. And, no matter how bad Detroit has been in the past, they always play good at home. It gets loud in the Silverdome. Because of their overall lack of speed on defense, the Lions are putting together a different package for the blazing Rams offense. While the coaches know they can't "catch" the Rams with schemes, they hope to throw enough at quarterback Kurt Warner to knock him off rhythm...Now, while Warner has been excellent at defeating blitzes, I believe a raucous Silverdome crowd could mean the split-second difference between a completed pass and a sack or errant throw. Why do you think the Rams never lose at home? (because its nice and quiet when they have the football). Not to mention, I like this Robert Porcher, he will get to Warner. I also look for ex-Ram Todd Lyght to raise his level of play against his former team.(he hasn't played too well yet this season). Now, with all this said...the f_cking Rams are dangerous...this isn't a game I normally would bet. However, I got that 'gut' feeling, and the home-dog on Monday night has paid too many dividends for me in the past. I am obviously a bit concerned about Detmer, but he and the Lions have had plenty of time to prepare for this game. They have the receivers (Moore & Crowell) to make some noise. And TE David Sloan has looked better in practice, and should get back on track after a terrible start. And let me be frank, this is a huge game for the entire Lion organization from GM to special teams player. They have had an extra week to prepare. Its on national T.V. And its their home-opener. I think they could maybe WIN the game. I really can't see them not giving a maximum effort, and getting 14 points sounds good to me. And, I will take the +700 money line as well. Hey, I have to constantly try and out-do myself, and after hitting the +400 money-line on COL Sat...lets see if I can? So, take the 14 points, and lay some action on the Money-line...if I hit that too, you guys better throw me a parade!
Good Luck!!!
[This message has been edited by MadJack (edited 10-08-2001).]
Detroit +14 Yep, I am taking the dog. First things first, I am doing this too long, and one thing I learned a long time ago is this: BET the home-team underdog on Monday night! Thats it. I don't bet games, based on trends...although I am aware of them, and they are a factor in my capping, but to a much lesser extent than most. However, I don't fool around with this one. This 'system', from what I have saw (maybe somebody could give us the exact number) wins at around 70%. And the logic behind it, is what makes me like it so much. It fits my style of capping. Why? Well, lets look at it. I am sure many of you, as I have, have gone to a Monday night game. And there is no question the electricity is at a much higher pitch. The game takes on a lot more meaning. Its an event. Now, no team wants to get embarrassed on national t.v., in front of the home crowd, and lose. Add into the fact, that the Lions are aware that they are a 13 point underdog, and many believe they are going to lose bad...Its a Knute Rockne speech waiting to happen. And football is a game of emotion. Now, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that the Lions are over-matched talent wise. However, this game is a huge game for the Lions, as I am hearing they are hoping to use this game to get their season on track. Not to mention, as bad as people are saying Det is...they have only lost 2 games, on the ROAD, to two pretty good football teams (especially at home) the Packers, and Browns. Which is another misconception, people look to the whipping the Browns gave them, and think this is the Browns of old.(not the case, not to mention Detmer threw 7 int.) Another point, this is Detroits first game at home, a la the Steelers and Saints (who I had yesterday). There is no coincidence that they won. And, no matter how bad Detroit has been in the past, they always play good at home. It gets loud in the Silverdome. Because of their overall lack of speed on defense, the Lions are putting together a different package for the blazing Rams offense. While the coaches know they can't "catch" the Rams with schemes, they hope to throw enough at quarterback Kurt Warner to knock him off rhythm...Now, while Warner has been excellent at defeating blitzes, I believe a raucous Silverdome crowd could mean the split-second difference between a completed pass and a sack or errant throw. Why do you think the Rams never lose at home? (because its nice and quiet when they have the football). Not to mention, I like this Robert Porcher, he will get to Warner. I also look for ex-Ram Todd Lyght to raise his level of play against his former team.(he hasn't played too well yet this season). Now, with all this said...the f_cking Rams are dangerous...this isn't a game I normally would bet. However, I got that 'gut' feeling, and the home-dog on Monday night has paid too many dividends for me in the past. I am obviously a bit concerned about Detmer, but he and the Lions have had plenty of time to prepare for this game. They have the receivers (Moore & Crowell) to make some noise. And TE David Sloan has looked better in practice, and should get back on track after a terrible start. And let me be frank, this is a huge game for the entire Lion organization from GM to special teams player. They have had an extra week to prepare. Its on national T.V. And its their home-opener. I think they could maybe WIN the game. I really can't see them not giving a maximum effort, and getting 14 points sounds good to me. And, I will take the +700 money line as well. Hey, I have to constantly try and out-do myself, and after hitting the +400 money-line on COL Sat...lets see if I can? So, take the 14 points, and lay some action on the Money-line...if I hit that too, you guys better throw me a parade!
Good Luck!!!
[This message has been edited by MadJack (edited 10-08-2001).]
