Monday: Plays

[superbook]

Miami was a big loser for me yesterday, record on posted picks at MJ's for the last six days is 16-6-1.

I'm still looking for opportunities on Monday's card, but one play jumped out immediately:

The Citadel -5.5

The Citadel is 6-6 in the South Division of the Southern Conference and one game behind College of Charleston and Chattanooga.

The Citadel has four regular season games left and they have a reasonable shot to win the South Division if they can beat long-time rival Furman monday night at McAlister Field House. If they lose, they've little or no chance.

After this game The Citadel plays at Georgia Southern (probable loss) and at VMI (probable win) and back at home vs Wofford (probable win).

The Citadel lost at Furman 83-75 on January 28th. The Bulldogs fell behind 44-26 at the half and managed to outscore the Paladins 49-39 in the second half but couldn't dig out of the deep hole they had dug for themselves. There were 54 fouls called in the game and Furman shot a season-high 85% from the FT line.

The Citadel has played very well at home and Furman has been terrible on the road.

The Citadel is 11-2 SU at home including 6-1 ATS at home and 5-1 ATS as a home favorite.

Furman is 2-8 SU on the road including 2-7 ATS away and 2-5 as a road dog.

Furman is 5-7 in all conference games but 1-5 SU and 0-5-1 ATS in the six conference games they've played on the road.

Those five SU road conference game losses were by an average of 10.6 points (10,10,8,17,8).

 

[crib_19]

Super..hope all is well...i'll be home tomorrow and not at work..
tough weekend...sat. night we were down 23-21 at half..down three at end of 3rd q...lost 47-37...gotta love the defensive effort
but we couldn't score when needed...loved one scored 12 but shot poorly..tough weekend...congrats on a solid weekend of plays...i'll be capping hard tomorrow.....went 2-2 today ...really liked NC St and Terps...lost Miami and Okie St...had New Orleans on an early lean...but didn't pull the trigger..talk to you tomorrow..
crib

 

[superbook]

Crib -- sorry to hear about your game. Talk to you tomorrow.

FWIW I got Citadel -5 at Grand Central not at the opening line of 5.5.

 

[superbook]

Adding:

Miami, OH -4

IMO this line already reflects the questionable status of Miami, OH guard Davis who suffered a high ankle sprain in a shoot around on Saturday. Davis, his team's second leading scorer and leading assist man, played only 12 minutes Saturday night vs Toledo and was 0-3 from the field. Miami, OH came from behind to beat and cover vs Toledo.

Ohio beat Miami, OH by 24, 85-61, just a month ago. But I like Miami, OH here because Ohio has had real problems on the road.

Since the start of league play, Ohio has been the dog in three league road games. The results:

2/6 Bowling Green wins by 16, 80-64; the line was 7

1/26 Western Michigan wins by 30, 95-65; the line was 1

1/12 Kent State wins by 15, 71-56; the line was 8


Ohio is 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS in their 3 league road games. And all of these losses were big.

 

[RobertBIrish]

another real nice number that makes me love this pick is that The Citadel has not lost at home to Furman since 98 and all of the victories at The Citadel against Furman have been by 10 or more points!

 

[superbook]

Here's my complete card I'm playing tonite:

Two Units:

Citadel -5.5
Ap State -3
Colorado State -4

One Unit:

Miami, OH -3.5 (-120)
Marist -6 (first half)
Rutgers - 9.5 (first half)

One Half Unit:

Kansas -5
UConn -9


gl

 

[boilermaker]

Superbook , What is your reasoning behind the Colorado State pick ? Michigan seems to be playing better of late . I see you have Col. St. as one of top picks tonight. Thanks.

 

[Digger24]

Interesting Info..........


The Wolverines moved Saturday's home tip-off with Penn State to an 11 a.m. local time start. After a 65-58 comeback victory over the Big Ten's last-place team, Michigan left for Denver, arriving in Fort Collins almost 48 hours before tonight's 7 o'clock nonleague tip-off at Colorado State.

First-year coach Tommy Amaker wanted an extra day to acclimate to the altitude. He told reporters after the Penn State game: "This is going to be very challenging."

Amaker knows firsthand about altitude. The former Duke All-American was an assistant coach at his alma mater when the Blue Devils lost to UNLV 103-73 in the 1990 NCAA title game in Denver.

 

[Digger24]

What about the first half at -3 for this game?

 

[superbook]

Boilermaker --

For the same reasoning as Hoops posted in his thread: thin air, Michigan 1-6-1 ATS on the road, Colorado will be playing for the upset while Michigan wondering why this non-league game is even on their schedule.

- Jon

 

[superbook]

Digger --

It's my opinion that the thin air will hurt Michigan the most in the second half.

FWIW I spent a summer in Colorado training at 8000 feet for the Olympic trials in the marathon and it was my experience that you don't get acclimatized in 1-2 days. It takes weeks.

In fact, for me it got worse before it got better.

 

[RAYMOND]

look great super winner i mean book i mean super book