BURNS
BASEBALL
UNDER rockies/braves
Game: Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies Game Time: 4/7/2008 8:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Colorado and Atlanta to finish UNDER the number. The Braves have gotten off to a hot start offensively. However, they were involved in a pitcher's duel yesterday, knocking off the Mets by a score of 3-1. Traveling to the cool temperatures in Colorado, I expect them to be involved in another relatively low-scoring affair this evening. The Rockies have seen two of their three home games finish below the number and none of those games produced more than nine combined runs. Dating back to April 2006, the UNDER is now 12-6 the last 18 games played here in the month of April. The Braves altered their rotation so that Smoltz could face New York yesterday and that Glavine, who has been successful (3-3 with a 3.97 ERA in 12 career starts) here, could pitch this evening. Glavine, who has seen the UNDER go 12-2-1 his last 15 starts in the month of April, had the following to say: "I think, in order to be successful there (Coors) you have to keep the ball down and that's what I always do." Glavine will have the luxury of facing a struggling Colorado offense that is currently averaging 1.7 runs per game, lowest in the majors. Cook, who has seen the UNDER go 4-2 his last six April starts, wasn't great in his opening start. He wasn't terrible either, allowing four runs in six complete innings. It should be noted that he closed out last season by allowing three earned runs or less in seven straight starts. Look for the Rockies' streak of low-scoring April games here to continue.
UNDER nationals/marlins
Game: Florida Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Game Time: 4/7/2008 7:10:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Nationals and Marlins to finish UNDER the number. Miller wasn't sharp in his Marlins' debut. However, that was against the Mets, a much more potent lineup than the one he'll see today. Indeed, while the Mets are averaging 10.2 hits, four walks and six runs per game, the Nationals are averaging 4.3 runs with 8.7 hits and 2.4 walks. Note that Miller will have the advantage of facing the Nationals for the first time. Additionally, note that the lone game in the Nationals' new stadium finished well below the number with a score of 3-2. Redding takes the mound for the home team and he's coming off a superb opening start in which he held Philadelphia to one hit, a single in the second, in seven shutout innings. The Nationals would go on to win that game by a score of 1-0. Dating back to last July, Redding has now seen the UNDER go a profitable 13-2-1 his last 16 starts. Lastly, note that Redding has a 2.00 ERA in five career starts vs. the Marlins, never allowing more than two earned runs in any of those starts. Like last week's season opener, look for the Nationals' second game in their new home to also be lower scoring than expected. *Blue Chip
ASTROS
Game: St Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros Game Time: 4/7/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Houston Astros Reason: I'm playing on HOUSTON. I had a lot of success playing on Wandy Rodgriguez at home last season and I'm going to back him in his first home start this season. Rodriguez didn't pitch particularly well in his debut, although the Astros still won. That's not all that surprising though, as he rarely pitched well on the road last season. He was almost always sharp at home though, as the Astros went 11-3 his last 14 starts here and 11-4 his last 15 overall. In fact, Rodriguez didn't even allow more than three earned runs in any of his first 12 starts here, allowing two or less in 10 of those games. While he doesn't have great career numbers vs. the Cardinals, Rodriguez did pitch well against them last season, allowing three runs through seven innings in his first start and just one run through eight complete innings in his most recent start against them, a game that the Astros won by a score of 18-1. Note that Rodriguez didn't issue a walk in either game. Its also interesting to note that St. Louis slugger Albert Pujols is 0-9 against Wandy, the longest he has gone hitless against any major league pitcher. Its also worth noting that Rodriguez went at least six complete innings in 10 of his 15 starts here last season, averaging 6 1/3 overall. Conversely, Welleymeyer failed to pitch more than six innings in any start for the Cards last season, averaging just 4 1/2 innings per outing. Look for Rodriguez to outpitch and outlast Welleymeyer here, as the Astros start off the series with a much needed victory.
PHILLIES
Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds Game Time: 4/7/2008 12:35:00 PM Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies Reason: I'm laying the price with PHILADELPHIA. After winning Friday's opener, the Phillies dropped both games against the Reds over the weekend. I feel that they'll have the advantage on mound this afternoon though and I look for them to salvage the series split. Hamels got tagged with a loss in his first start, while Arroyo didn't receive a decision in his. However, Hamels was actually the much sharper of the two and I feel that he's the stronger pitcher overall. While Arroyo gave up four runs (two earned) in just five innings, Hamels allowed a mere one run through eight complete innings. Unfortunately for Hamels, his team couldn't deliver him any run support. That'll happen from time to time. However, its not likely to happen often to Hamels with a normally potent Philadelphia offense behind him. If Hamels pitches anything like he did the last time he traveled here, he won't be in need of much run support this afternoon. The last time he pitched here, which happened to be last April, he tossed a complete game, while striking out 15 Cincinnati hitters. The Phillies won 4-1, with manager Charlie Manuel summing up his performance by saying: "He was super, man." Hamels had previously only pitched at Cincinnati once and that came in his major league debut. In that game, he had seven strikeouts and allowed only a single hit through five innings. That gives him a miniscule 0.64 ERA in two starts here with 22 Ks (only two walks) in 14 innings. Looking at it another way, Cincinnati has 11 current players who have faced Hamels in their careers and they've gone a combined 4-for-35, striking out 17 times. Despite yesterday's victory, the Reds remain a money-burning 48-68 when playing during the afternoon the past few seasons. Look for their struggles against Hamels to continue for another day. *Personal Favorite
