Monday Service Plays 8/11/08

[the duke]

Comps

San Francisco at HOUSTON (-135)Sports Gambling Hotline

Hard to argue with the results the Astros have been getting the last few days, as Houston pulled off the sweep at Cincinnati this weekend, and have now won 4 straight, and 8 of their last 10.

Sure, the loss of Carlos Lee is going to hurt the 'Stros, but right now we will not make a case against them, as they take on a San Fran team that is just 26-30 on the road this year.

Houston has taken 3 of 4 this season from San Francisco, and those games were played in the City by the Bay. Now Houston gets a crack at the Giants at home where the 'Stros took 2 of 3 from the Giants a season ago, and Houston does own an above .500 record in their home park this year.

A win tonight puts the Astros at the break-even mark for the year, and we don't think Brandon Backe can pitch much worse than he did his last start when the Cubs tattoed him.

Sanchez will oppose, and it has been a while since he has seen the win column, as the southpaw has dropped his last 3 starts, allowing 13 runs in just 12 innings of work.

Play on Houston to continue their winning ways.

4♦ HOUSTON



NY Yankees (+115) at MINNESOTA Karl Garrett

Tonight I like the struggling Yankees to get back on track against a Minnesota team they have dominated of late.

New York comes to town having lost their last 3, but they did recently sweep 3 games from the Twins in the Bronx, and are 5-2 versus Minnesota this year.

Sidney Ponson has been able to go 1-0 over his last 2 starts, allowing only 3 runs in his last 13 innings, as Ponson is now 7-2 for the year. Included is a 2-0 mark against the Twins this season, with 5 runs allowed in 20 innings of work.

Minnesota starter Glen Perkins has hit hard times, as the southpaw has allowed 14 runs over his last 18 innings, and is just 1-1 in that span. Against the Yanks, Perkins is 0-2 for the season, with 10 runs allowed in 10 innings of work.

The G-Man expects the Yankees to handle the Twins, and Perkins one more time.

3♦ NY YANKEES



N.Y. Yankees at MINNESOTA (-120) Bobby Maxwell

The Yankees have won five of seven this season from the Twins and took two of four in Minnesota in late May. But suddenly the Yankees have been looking very beatable and on this road trip they are 2-5 as they head to the Metrodome.

We like this lefty the Twins are throwing on the mound today in Glen Perkins (8-3, 4.38 ERA). He's 5-2 at home this season and the Twins are 7-3 in his last 10 outings and even though he's been roughed up a bit in his last three starts, expect him to come out and throw a strong game at the Yankees.

The resurgent Sidney Ponson (7-2, 4.23) goes for the Yankees but this guy has been the beneficiary of a lot of runs by his offense since joining the Bronx Bombers, it really hasn't been his dominant pitching. In his last two road starts he's allowed 10 runs on 16 hits in 10.1 innings. He faced these Twins back on July 21 and gave up three runs on nine hits in 5.2 innings of a 12-4 win - the offense doing his work for him.

We like Minnesota in this one as the Twins are 35-16 in their last 51 home games and 20-6 the last 26 games they've been favored. Let's play them to get the job done tonight.

2♦ MINNESOTA

 

[the duke]

Comps

Bob Harvey


MLB | Aug 11
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers -1?+102

It?s that time of the year that teams with something on the line, like Milwaukee, get the job done against the bottom feeders of the league. The Brewers who lead the Wild Card standings in the National League go for their sixth-straight win as they take on the Nationals in the finale of a four-game series. The Brew Crew will send Dave Bush to the hill in their bid for a sweep of the Nats. Bush is 6-9 with a 4.50 ERA on the year and is 2-2 with a 3.57 ERA in his last six starts. The veteran right-hander is also 2-2 with a 3.47 ERA in four lifetime games against the Nationals and has won two straight starts against them. The Nationals send Garrett Mock to the mound in the series finale. Mock is 0-2 this season with an ERA of just under 5.00. He?s making his first start for the Nationals since June 21st. Granted the Brewers RL record is just 25-35 at home, two of those run line victories have come this weekend against Washington. I?m not crazy about the high number with Milwaukee on the money-line, but I?ll take this very reasonable price on the RL.



Nelly

Toronto + over Detroit

The Tigers have lost three consecutive games that Justin Verlander has started as he has posted terrible numbers, allowing 18 runs in just over 17 innings pitched. It has been a very disappointing season for Verlander with 12 losses on the year and he does not have significantly better numbers in his home starts. Shaun Marcum came up with a great effort in his last start, allowing just three hits over seven innings and opposing batters are hitting just .210 against him. The Tigers are just 3-7 in the last ten games and there appears little fight in this team despite still being within striking distance of a playoff spot. Toronto continues to play at a solid clip with outstanding pitching and the disparity between these two bullpens is more than enough to make up for an offensive edge for the Tigers.



Marc Lawrence

Play On: Boston w/Beckett over Chicago w/Danks

Note: Boston and Chicago conclude their four-game series Monday night in this battle of the Sox when Josh Beckett takes on John Danks in a battle of right handers in the Windy City. Hurling during the month of August has not been Danks' forte as evidenced by his 1-6 career mark with a 6.50 ERA. To compound matters, Danks' ERA at home is more than a full run higher than on the road this season. Conversely, Beckett's 3.38 road ERA is more than a run-and-a-half better than his 5.03 home ERA this season. With that look for Beckett to improve to 5-0 lifetime in his MLB career against the Pale Hose here this evening.

 

[the duke]

Cover

Stephen Nover

Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: Pittsburgh Pirates 180

REASON FOR PICK: Considering their bullpen woes, injuries and Pedro Martinez on the mound, the Mets shouldn't be this big of a favorite.

The line is this high, in part, because the Mets are home and the pitching matchup is Zach Duke against Martinez. Duke hasn't been good this season, but his ERA (5.13) still is lower than Martinez's ERA (5.79).

Duke is off one of his best performances of the season. Pitching on the road against Arizona last Tuesday, Duke held the Diamondbacks to two earned runs in seven innings. He matched his season-high in strikeouts with six, while walking just one.

Duke is 2-0 with a 1.77 ERA in three career starts versus the Mets.

Martinez has won once since June 15. He's 1-3 with a 6.06 ERA during his past seven starts. Martinez has yet to pitch into the eighth inning this season. He's averaged 5 2/3 innings in his past seven starts.

The Mets lack a true closer with Billy Wagner on the DL. Their middle relief has been terrible.

This is a one-game makeup matchup. The Mets are off a tough division series against Florida. They go on the road after this game. So they may not have their full concentration for the non-division Pirates, a team that generates little respect.



Jimmy The Moose

Game: San Francisco Giants at Houston Astros Aug 11 2008 8:05PM
Prediction: San Francisco Giants

Reason: The Giants have won 3 of their last 4 games while the Astros have won 4 in a row. The Giants have two things going for them in this one, one they have been very good vs. the Astros in recent games and two Sanchez has been good on the mound on the road. The Giants are 6-2 in his last 8 road starts and 4-0 in his last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Sanchez has struggled over his last 6 but expect a good game from him tonight in Houston. The Astros are 2-5 in Backe's last 7 starts. In his last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record the Astros are 1-7. The Giants are 22-7 in their last 29 trips to Houston. The Astros are 19-41 in the last 60 meetings between the clubs. Play on the Giants +.



Big Al Mcmordie

Game: Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers Aug 11 2008 10:10PM
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

At 10:10pm our member selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Los Angeles Dodgers. So what's the verdict so far on the trade that brought Manny Ramirez to Los Angeles in exchange for some prospects in the hopes of boosting the Dodgers' sagging offense? Well right now you'd have to say that the jury is still out. Sure, Ramirez has been on fire since coming to the west coast with 15 hits in 37 at bats, four homers and eleven RBI. So what's the problem? Unfortunately, since arriving at the end of July, the Dodgers have only gone 4-5. Regardless of his individual achievements, if Manny can't help the Dodgers win the division, then the deadline deal has to be considered a bust. One of the problems, of course, is that the hitters around him in the lineup in Los Angeles are a far cry from those in Boston. This will be a big series for LA, as it faces NL East-leading Philadelphia. Philly
starter Kyle Kendrick must have heard all of the so-called experts talking about his team needing another starter prior to the trade deadline. Those sentiments could be heard loud and clear since the middle of July, and Kendrick must have taken it personally, because in his three starts since July 19, he has gone 2-1 with a 1.45 ERA and is now in double-digit wins for the season at a very surprising 10-5. LA's righthanded veteran Derek Lowe seems to want to defend his title as baseball's "Most Inconsistent Starter" as one never knows which Lowe will show up when he takes the mound, but lately it hasn't been the good one. Take the Phillies.

 

[the duke]

Scott Ferrall

BASEBALL LOCKS FOR MONDAY

St.Louis +105 at Florida--Piniero over Sanchez--I saw Sanchez get roughed up in Philly and the Cards looked good at Wrigley. The Marlins won Sunday but lost 2 of 3 in Shea

Philly +120 at LA--Kendrick with a huge road win for the Phillies in Lipstick City over Derek Lowe

Toronto +145 at Detroit--Marcum needs to step up and take it seriously on the road at Comerica even though the Jays aren't going anywhere--neither are the Tigers and Verlander

Baltimore +125 at Cleveland--Sarfate upsets Carmona at the Jake

Yankees +110 over Twins--New York gets a solid outing from Sid Ponson as he returns to the Homerdome to say "remember me" to the team tha dumped him

ChiSox +120 over Boston in the Windy City--Danks takes out Beckett because he's definitely capable of pulling it off

BASEBALL OVER-UNDERS FOR MONDAY

YANKS-TWINS OVER 9.5 RUNS

BOST-CHISOX UNDER 9 RUNS

TOR-DET UNDER 9 RUNS

BALT-CLEV OVER 9.5 RUNS

PHILLY-LA UNDER 8 RUNS

SF-HOUS OVER 9.5 RUNS

CARDS-MARLINS UNDER 9.5 RUNS

WASH-MILW OVER 8 RUNS

PITTS-NY OVER 9 RUNS


BASEBALL FREE B's FOR MONDAY

San Francisco +115 at Houston--Backe got lit up his last time out, so I'm rolling the dice with Dirty Sanchez and the Giants at Minute Maid

Milwaukee -200 and Bush over the Nationals--you got to pay to play baby--I still think the Brewers will win it

Pirates +175 at Shea over Pedro and the Mets--Zach Duke gets help from the Bucs bats as they jump on Martinez, who usually gives up some runs and homers these days--he hasn't pitched rotten, but he hasn't been getting decisions either. Pirates catch the Mets off guard in the rainout makeup in Queens

You've got to take some chances if you want to make some extra coin


MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL for week 1 pre-season

Bengals +3 from Packers--Rodgers doesn't play much but the Green still screw it up and the Bengals actually look good for a change

 

[the duke]

Dwayne Bryant

7:05 PM ET
Major League Baseball
Toronto Blue Jays (Marcum) at Detroit Tigers (Verlander)
Free Play On: Detroit Tigers (Listed Pitchers) -153

Things look about even when you compare Marcum's road numbers to Verlander's home numbers. Neither has pitched well in their last three starts, although I do like Verlander's over 3/1 K/BB ratio. Marcum is coming off a home win over Oakland in which he went 7 innings and allowed just 1 run on 3 hits. Now he has to go on the road against a team that can hit well. The last time Marcum faced a good hitting team, Texas ripped him for 6 runs on 7 hits in just 4 1/3 innings. In fact, Marcum has allowed 12 runs on 15 hits in 9 innings in his 2 road starts since coming off the DL. The hitters on Detroit's active roster are batting a respectable .281 against Marcum (9-for-32) with a nice .594 slugging percentage.
Verlander has been roughed up in his last three starts, one on the road against the Indians and two against the White Sox (1 home, 1 away). Prior to this slump, Verlander had allowed 2 earned runs or less in 11 of 13 starts. He also had Quality Starts in 6 of his last 7 home starts, allowing 2 earned runs or less in 6 of those 7 outings (allowed 3 runs in the other outing). The icing on the cake: the batters on Toronto's active roster are hitting just .143 against Verlander (5-for-35).
The Jays have averaged just 3.25 runs per game against righties over their last 5 games. Detroit has averaged 5.11 runs per game against righties over their last 5 games. On the road this season, Toronto is batting .255 and scoring 4.49 runs per game against righties. At home this season, Detroit is batting .298 and scoring 6.16 runs per game against righties.

Take Detroit/Verlander over Toronto/Marcum.

 

[the duke]

Gator Report

NFLX 70% Super Situations:

NFLX Monday: Play Under NFL teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points in the first two weeks of the pre-season, 44-18 Under (71%)

PLAY: Cincinnati / Green Bay UNDER 36


MLB 70% Super Situations:

MLB Monday: Play On MLB (NL) home teams with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.550 to 1.650 on the season, starting a pitcher who was gave up 7 or more runs last outing, 58-22 SU (72.5%) PLAY: Houston Astros -125


MLB Top Angles:

MLB Monday: Duke (Pitt) is 8-30 SU against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

MLB Monday: Duke (Pitt) is 8-0 Over in road games played during the day.

MLB Monday: Backe (Houston) is 20-5 SU at home at night since 1997.

MLB Monday: Beckett (Boston) is 15-2 SU against the money line as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

 

[the duke]

comp

Craig Trapp

Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers (MLB) - Aug 11, 2008 2:05 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -1.5/-101 Milwaukee Brewers

Today take MIL run line over WASH. MIL is going for a sweep in the early game today. Ryan Braun is out for todays game but look for MIL to still come out swinging. To secure a four-game sweep, Milwaukee hands the ball to Dave Bush (6-9, 4.50 ERA), who is 2-2 with a 3.57 ERA in six starts since winning back-to-back outings June 19 and 24. He turned in a strong performance on Tuesday, yielding just one run and three hits, while fanning seven over seven innings of an 8-1 victory in Cincinnati! Look for more of the same today. SCORE MIL 5 - WASH 2 Dont miss out on premium 3 star pick today. LAST 2 days have been strong 6-1!!


Alex Smart

Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers
Mon Aug 11 '08 7:05 pm et
Prediction: Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers(58-59) started their 2008 campaign, as one of the publics favorite choices for an American League championship. After starting their season with 7 straight losses, the Tigers have never completely rebounded and remain 1 game under .500 . Motown s streaky play has seen them win 3 of their L/4 after a 6 game slide, heading into a three game series against a Toronto Blue Jays(59-59) squad that is off getting swept by the Cleveland Indians this past weekend.

With that said, I think the Tigers have the edge , and getting the much needed victory , as they send their most talented hurler , Justin Verlander (8-12, 4.56 ERA) to the hill. I know the southpaws numbers do not instill confidence for his betting backers , but this kid can be dominating when he gets in a groove, as was the case in his last outing when he mowed down 12 batters in a row and 21 of 24 overall, despite of suffering a loss. This is going to be his first ever start against the Jays, which will give him an edge over an offense that scored only 4 runs in their last 27 innings of play.

Meanwhile, his Toronto pitching opponent, Shaun Marcum( 6-5, 3.44 ERA) is making his 5th start ,since coming off the DL, with an elbow strain. In my opinion he looked a lot stronger and had more zip on his pitches before the layoff. I know he pitched well last time out, in a 5-1 win over the light hitting As, but against Detroit Tigers team that is hitting .303 at home this season while averaging 5.7 RPG , I think a much different ending will unfold.

Final notes & Key Trends: Tigers are 7-1 in Verlanders last 8 starts vs. American League East..Detroit has won 4 of 5 Verlanders L/5 home starts . Detroit has faired well at home against top tier bullpens , with a 3.00 ERA or better winning 10 of 11 games.
Play on the Detroit Tigers



Tom Freese

Boston at Chicago (8:10pm)
Boston is 36-16-6 UNDER their last 58 games when playing Game 4 of a series. The Red Sox are 10-4-1 UNDER after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 18-8-3 UNDER after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game. Josh Beckett is 12-5-1 UNDER his last 18 road starts vs. winning teams. Chicago is 11-1 UNDER their last 12 games vs. AL East teams and they are 8-3 UNDER their last 11 home games vs. winning teams. The White Sox are 5-0 UNDER in the last 5 home starts made by John Danks. Both Beckett and Danks are in excellent KW form with a 5 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio in their last 3 starts. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Danks vs. Beckett)

 

[the duke]

Comps

N.Y. Yankees (+115) at MINNESOTA Chris Jordan

The Bombers need to act now, after getting swept in Anaheim, as the Devil Rays gained needed ground on both New York and the defending champs while spending time in the Emerald City with the Mariners. Sidney Ponson gets the nod for this visit to the Metrodome, where he tossed a complete game victory back in May, giving up six hits, one earned run and striking out five on May 21.

This will mark the fourth time he?s faced the Twins this year, and he?s 2-0 already. I used to despise this guy as much as I did Jeff Weaver, but I?ll be honest, after watching him perform in person back on July 21 ? against this same team ? I?ve become a believer that he is a viable commodity in this rotation.

Now 7-2 on the season, he?s toed the slab for the pinstripes 16 times this season and has produced seven quality starts ? almost half his starts. In the games he needed one inning or less to get to the minimum six innings to qualify for a quality start, there were four more in which he allowed three or less earned runs.

Bottom line here is the Yanks are the value play in this one, and we?re taking the money one day after the Twins got bumped off by the hapless Royals.

2♦ YANKEES (LIST Ponson and Perkins)


Scott Delaney

This is a perfect time for the Red Sox to get back on track after losing two of their last three to Chicago, as they?re still 6-3 in their last nine and with Josh Beckett toeing the rubber for us. I know John Danks has performed well since the All-Star Break, but against Boston he?s going to get shelled, trust me. He hasn't faced the defending champs yet this campaign, but he did get lit up twice last season by the Sox.

Spanning 9-1/3 frames, he surrendered nine runs. Instead, let?s back the right-handed Beckett, who is holding opponents to a .256 batting average and is 3-0 in his last three starts against the South Siders. Lay the road chalk in this series finale, as the champs roll behind Beckett?s right arm.

1 DIME RED SOX



Tony Weston

Tonight, you?re going to have a dogfight in Chicago, but go with the White Sox over the Red Sox.

The teams come into this, Game 4 of this series, with the White Sox holding a 2-1 advantage over the Red Sox. After splitting games Friday and Saturday Chicago got over on Boston yesterday with a strong 6-5 win.

That win now puts the White Sox at 4-2 their last six games and gives them a 6-2 mark their last eight games at home.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, are only 3-3 their last six games and are only 8-13 their last 21 games away from Fenway Park.

Boston will continue its road struggles and the White Sox will record another victory over the visitors. Go with Chicago at home tonight.

3♦ WHITE SOX (On a 1-5♦ Scale)

 

[the duke]

Jim Feist

My free pick of the day is the game between (909) PHI Phillies and (910) LA Dodgers. Take "Under". Dodger stadium is a terrific pitcher's park, one with a huge outfield. The Dodgers have an improved offense with Manny Ramirez, but oddsmakers have over-adjusted, as LA is still 12-4 under the total the last 16 games. Starter Derek Lowe and his sinker struggle on the road, but he has a 2.72 ERA at home. Philadelphia starter Kyle Kendrick has an ERA close to 5 at home, but 3.90 on the road. The Phillies are on a 5-1-1 under the total run. Play the Phillies/Dodgers under the total!



Dave Cokin

My free pick of the day is the game between (909) PHI Phillies and (910) LA Dodgers. Take "(909) PHI Phillies".
The Dodgers are back home following a couple of walk-off losses to the Giants. Derek Lowe is off his shortest and least effective stint all season. The Phillies have been mired in an offensive slump, but showed signs of life in winning the last two against the Pirates. Kyle Kendrick usually brings out the best in the Phils offense for some reason, and I'm going to back the road underdogs in this contest.

 

[the duke]

CappersAccess

Mon (NFL) Packers
Mon (MLB) Brewers RL



ARMVIN SPORTS

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES 119



Hondo

Hondo, who'd been slightly chilly lately, broke the schneid yesterday, hitting with the Chisox to increase his collection of dead presidents to 440 osteens.

Today, it's Danks for the memories - 10 more units on the Pale Hose.



MIGHTY QUINN


Mighty hit with the Cubs last night. Today it's the Yankees and Red Sox. The surplus is 185 sirignanos.

 

[the duke]

John Fina

August 11, 2008

Selection: Florida Marlins (-125)

Play the Florida Marlins!



Tony Mathews

August 11, 2008

Matchup: San Francisco Giants vs. Houston Astros

Selection: Houston Astros (-135) Sanchez & Backe



Brian Marshall

August 11, 2008

Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs. LA Dodgers

Plays On: LA Dodgers (-130)

Take the LA Dodgers!



Take the Houston Astros!

 

[the duke]

JB's Computer Plays



2:05 p.m. Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers
(R) Garrett Mock (0-2) vs. (R) Dave Bush (6-9) Milwaukee Brewers -210


7:05 p.m. Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers
(R) Shaun Marcum (6-5) vs. (R) Justin Verlander (8-12) Detroit Tigers -160


10:10 p.m. Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers
(R) Kyle Kendrick (10-5) vs. (R) Derek Lowe (8-10) Philadelphia Phillies +120

 

[the duke]

Nostradamus


MLB
Wash/Minn Over 8
Florida -130
SF/Houst Over 9.5
Bost/ Chic Over 8.5
Yanks/Minn Under 9.5


NFL
Cinn/GB Over 36

 

[the duke]

LAS VEGAS SPORTS ADVISORS

NFL
Cinn +3.0(5*)
Play of the Day


Philadelphia/Kyle Kendrick +121 (4*)


Milwaukee/David Bush -1.5 102
FREE PICK (4*)

 

[the duke]

Comps

St. Louis at FLORIDA (-125) Drew Gordon

Now that the Marlins bats have come back to life (14 runs L2 games), they can get back to playing their brand of baseball, which thrives off power vs. finesse. Good news for Florida-backers is the Fish get just what the doctor ordered to keep their bats hot in the Cardinals struggling Joel Piniero tonight.

Speaking of Piniero, he's gotten absolutely rocked in each of his last 3 road starts, allowing a whopping 17 runs on 30 hits over his last 15 2/3 innings away! Look guys, its not just on the road either, as Piniero has had issues everywhere he's pitched, posting a 6.61 ERA over his last 8 start (allowing 10 hits or more in 6 of those 8 contests)! With the Marlins offense getting back on track over the weekend, Piniero finds himself in DEEP trouble tonight.

Opposing Piniero is the Marlins Anibal Sanchez, who two starts into his 2008 comeback season, has looked relatively solid, going 1-1 with a 4.22 ERA. He got his only win thus far at Dolphin Stadium, allowing 2 runs on 6 hits over 5 2/3 innings to the Rockies back on July 31st. Although questions still remain about his ability to recapture his 2006 form, fact of the matter is, he's pitching a hell of lot better than Piniero is right now, only 2 games into his season!

Finally, while the Marlins offense has awoken from a short slumber, the Cards offense has been nowhere to be found, scoring 2 runs or fewer in 3 of their last 4 games (1-3 over that span). While the Cards usually hit righties well on the road, they're not swinging the bats partiularly well of late, and face a Florida team that's 21-15 against righties at home under the lights! In the end, the Marlins protect their house, as Piniero's road woes are the difference in this one.

Take Florida behind Sanchez over St. Louis and Piniero in this MLB match up.

3♦ FLORIDA



Vegas Experts

Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers

These teams met two years ago in Preseason play and combined for 65 points, an astounding number for August. That game was in Cincinnati, but on the road is where Bengals coach Marvin Lewis really cashes in on the Over flying past the total in 8 of 9 preseason games. You know Green Bay is going to want to score in an effort to prove they "never" needed Brett Favre.

Play on: Over



Gold Medal Club

Philadelphia @ LA.Dodgers


We take note that Philadelphia is 10-4 as road dogs in this price range.Kendrick is 6-2 in road starts this season and in great current form, taking a 1.45 era in his last 3 starts into tonights contest.Lowe has been solid at home this season, but was shelled in St.Louis in his last outing, the 147 innings pitched this season maybe catching up with him.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

 

[the duke]

SPORTS ADVISORS

NFL Preseason

Cincinnati at Green Bay

With the Brett Favre soap opera finally behind them, the Packers and new No. 1 quarterback Aaron Rodgers take the field at Lambeau Field tonight for a preseason contest against the Bengals.

Rodgers, who served as Favre?s backup each of the last three years, is expected to play the entire first quarter for Green Bay before giving way to rookie Brian Brohm, who will lead the team in the middle two quarters with fellow rookie Matt Flynn slated to see fourth-quarter action.

Mike McCarthy?s squad is thin on the defensive line tonight with four defensive tackles and two defensive ends sitting this one out.

The Bengals will play starting QB Carson Palmer and the first-string offense for about 15 plays before Palmer gives way to Ryan Fitzpatrick for the rest of the half. Jeff Rowe will likely play the third quarter and expect to see Palmer?s brother, Jordan Palmer, get some mop-up action late in the game. Cincinnati will be without its top two WRs, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh.

Cincinnati is a mediocre 10-10 SU and 11-9 ATS in preseason action since Marvin Lewis took over as coach in 2003, including 3-7 on the road (5-5 ATS). Last August, the Bengals lost three of their four summer contests, going 0-2 on the highway (1-1 ATS).

The Packers are 3-5 SU and ATS under McCarthy the last two preseasons, including 2-2 SU and ATS at home. However, Green Bay has cashed in each of its two games as a favorite the past two Augusts.

These two met in the 2006 preseason in Cincinnati with the Bengals demolishing the Packers 48-17 as five-point favorites.

The over is 5-2 in Green Bay?s last seven preseason games overall, 3-1 in its last four at Lambeau and 5-1 in Cincinnati?s last six August road games dating to 2005.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Philadelphia (64-53) at L.A. Dodgers (58-59)

The N.L. East-leading Phillies head west to Dodger Stadium, where they?ll send Kyle Kendrick (10-5, 4.37 ERA) to the mound to face veteran Derek Lowe (8-10, 4.10) in the first matchup of the season between these squads.

Philadelphia leads New York by two games in the race for the N.L. East crown while the Dodgers sit 1? games behind Arizona in the N.L. West. The Phillies beat Pittsburgh 6-3 on Sunday to wrap up a brief six-game homestand at 3-3. Meanwhile Los Angeles went 2-4 on its just-completed road trip, including excruciating walk-off losses to the rival Giants on Saturday (3-2 in 10 innings) and Sunday (5-4).

The Phillies have won five of their last six against N.L. West opponents and five of their last six on the road. They?re also on impressive streaks of 40-19 in series openers, 15-5 when Kendrick starts and 13-3 when Kendrick works on the road. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is 8-3 in its last 11 home games and 5-1 in Lowe?s last six versus the N.L. East.

Kendrick is 2-1 with a 1.45 ERA in his last three outings, and he?s gone 6-2 on the road this year. He blanked the Marlins on four hits over six innings in Wednesday?s 5-0 home victory. Kendrick faced the Dodgers twice last season and gave up a combined nine runs on 14 hits in 12 innings, splitting a pair of games that ended with identical 5-4 final scores.

Lowe had his worst outing of the season on Wednesday when he gave up eight runs on 13 hits in just 3 1/3 innings of a 9-6 loss in St. Louis. He?s just 6-5 at home despite a solid 2.72 ERA. For his career, he?s 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA and two saves in 10 appearances against the Phillies.

The over is 7-1 in Kendrick?s last eight starts against N.L. West teams and 4-1 in his last five road starts. Also, in this series, the over is on runs of 7-2-1 overall, 6-0-1 in Los Angeles and 4-1 when Lowe pitches. However, as a team, the Phillies have stayed under the total in five straight, while the Dodgers are on under streaks of 12-5 overall, 30-12 as a favorite, 27-11 at home, 7-3 with Lowe on the mound overall and 5-0 in Lowe?s last five at home.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Boston (67-51) at Chicago White Sox (65-51)

The White Sox try to make it three of four against the Red Sox when they give the ball to lefty John Danks (9-4, 3.21) opposite Boston ace Josh Beckett (10-8, 4.08) at U.S. Cellular Field.

The teams have alternated wins and losses in the first three games of this four-game set, with Chicago holding on for a 6-5 victory on Sunday. The White Sox are 39-18 at home this year, and they?re 22-10 in their last 32 games against right-handed starters and 6-2 in Danks? last eight starts.

Boston has won six of its last nine, but the Red Sox are still on a 17-38 slide on the road against winning teams. This is the first series of the year between these two teams, but Boston is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings going back to 2007, including 5-2 in Chicago.

Beckett is just 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA in his last three starts, and the Red Sox have lost five of his last eight outings. On Tuesday, he held the Royals to two runs on four hits in 6 2/3 innings of an 8-2 victory in Kansas City. He?s 3-0 with a 4.64 ERA in four career starts (21 1/3 innings) against Chicago.

Danks is 2-0 with a 4.34 ERA in his last three starts and was superb against the Tigers on Wednesday, allowing just one run on four hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 5-1 victory. He?s only seen Boston twice in his career, both last season, and gave up nine runs in 9 1/3 innings in a pair of defeats.

Boston is on runs of 19-8 with Beckett pitching on the road, 34-16 when he takes the hill as a favorite and 5-0 when he faces A.L. Central teams. Meanwhile, the White Sox are 8-3 in Danks? last 11 as an underdog and 5-2 in his last seven in Chicago, but just 2-5 in his last seven versus A.L. East squads.

The over is 17-6-1 in Chicago?s last 24 overall, 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two overall and 7-2 in the past nine clashes in Chicago.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER

 

[the duke]

Ben Burns

***EARLY 1st PITCH*** "BLUE CHIP" Total! $35.00
After easily cashing Saturday's lone baseball total, Ben Burns nailed his American League Total of the Month on the Yankees/Angels 'under' the total yesterday. This "Totals Expert" keeps the pedal to the metal E-A-R-L-Y Monday afternoon with an ABSOLUTE BEAUTY which has received "Blue Chip Status." Don't even consider sleeping in!


Pittsburgh Pirates/New York Mets Under


Write Ups

'Im expecting the pitchers to steal the spotlight in this afternoon's Mets/Pirates game. While he hasn't been going too deep into ball games, Pedro Martinez has quietly been pitching quite well recently. He hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last four starts, allowing seven runs. During that 4-game stretch, he has a 3.05 ERA, including a stellar 2.94 mark (1.174 WHIP) his last three starts. Martinez has made four home starts on the season and all four of them fell below the total. In fact, dating back to May of 2006, we find the UNDER at a highly profitable 11-0-1 his last 12 starts here. Note that Pedro has been much better in three daytime starts (3.00 ERA) than he has been in his eight evening starts. This afternoon, he'll face a Pirates lineup which isn't hitting nearly as well since getting rid of the likes of Jason Bay and Xavier Nady. Indeed, the Pirates have managed a mere 10 runs their past five games and they didn't score more than three runs in any of those games. Not surprisingly, the UNDER was a perfect 5-0 in those games. Additionally, note that Pedro has always pitched well vs. the Pirates, going 9-4 with a 2.97 ERA. The Pirates haven't seen him since 2006 either, which figures to work to Pedro's advantage. Likewise, the Mets haven't seen Zach Duke since 2006. The last time that he faced them, he tossed eight shutout innings en route to a 3-0 Pittsburgh victory. Including that gem, in three career starts vs. the Mets, Duke has gone 2-0 with an outstanding 1.77 ERA and a 1.033 WHIP. It's true that Duke has been having a disappointing season. However, he's more talented than his record indicates and he showed it last time out. In that start, he allowed just four hits and two runs through seven complete innings vs. Arizona, striking out six while walking just one. He didn't get any run support though and the Pirates lost by a score of 3-1. Look for Duke to build off that effort, continuing his success vs. the Mets, as the final combined score stays beneath the generous number and the UNDER improves to 9-3 the last dozen times that the Mets faced a southpaw starter. *Blue Chip

 

[the duke]

*** EZWINNERS MLB ***

3 STAR: (916) CHICAGO (+$117) over Boston
(Action)
(Risking $300 to win $351)
7:10PM Central Time

3 STAR: (909) PHILADELPHIA (+$119) over LA Dodgers
(Action)
(Risking $300 to win $357)
9:10PM Central Time

 

[the duke]

Larry Ness


Las Vegas Insider (Bengals/Packers) $35.00
Larry caps Wk 1 action in the NFLX with a rare second Las Vegas Insider. He had to settle for a disappointing 'push' Thursday with his 1st one, as the Lions won by three over the Giants (some won at minus-2 1/2). Join this 25-year vet as he and his "unmatched" contacts are "all over" one side in tonight's contest. Watch and win on ESPN with Larry.

Green Bay Packers


MLB
Las Vegas Insider (runs of 9-3 and 35-20) $35.00
Larry and his "unmatched" contacts have been combining to provide winning selections for years on the net and currently are on another "patented run." Sunday's win (White Sox) makes Larry's MLB Insiders 9-3 s/July 28 and going all the way back to May 26, the record is 35-20! "It pays to be on the inside with Larry." Want in?

Detroit Tigers



15* Team Mismatch GOW (62-39 s/Jun 30) $35.00
Larry went 11-7 in the just-completed week of Aug 4-10. It marked the FIFTH time in the L6 weeks in which he had earned a profit, with individual games going 62-39. He's shown a profit in 10 of the L14 weeks as well, with individual games going a "money-making" 136-100. Join Larry as he opens a new week with his 15* Team Mismatch GOW.

Houston Astros

 

[the duke]

Investment Playmakers

[ MLB ]
Investment Playmakers (3) Pack Best Bet P.O.D.
Date: Monday, August 11, 2008
$45.00 Guaranteed: Finishing 2-1 yesterday we look to get off the ground with a nice profitable week despite the ups and downs last week. First pitch goes down after 1:00 p.m. so jump on this 3 pack today. You will get the 20* Play of the Day and 2 best bets sure to make the profit today. Guaranteed to profit. All for the inexpensive price of $45.00

20* Boston Red Sox

Best Bet New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Over 9

Best Bet New York Yankees