MONDAY

[alienx]

ORL - MEMPHIS (+12)
Memphis is a 12 point underdog. Makes no sense to me. Did somebody got hurt from Memphis today. OK, They are tired, they will travel, Orlando is rested, but 12 points is huge. Memphis has a young team and they have been getting better by the day. Don't see them taking a day off like some of the Veteran teams like the Bucks. It makes me think I am way of reading the teams or the linemakers know something I don't know.
MEMPHIS+12 and maybe the moneyline for a small amount tomorrow.

Opinions?

 

[jiwos2m1]

don't know about ml but like memphis and the 12. the line is 12 i think because of back to back but i think memphis has been good so far in those situation. in my opinion orlando is not a very good team yet. started off well but beginning to fade a little. keeping an eye on them though as i think they can be good and might go on a ats run at some time.

 

[alienx]

Thanks for the reply, Jiwos2m1. Line Is going down like I have thought it would but still can't understand why it has opened w/ 12. Memphis has beat the point spread by 14.5, 10, 20, and 16 points in their last 4. Which means that the line makers were off by that many points for each game. Hard to imagine that they haven't realized.
Have been betting $10 $20 last couple weeks. Working on the my new money managment style. But I have the urge to put $300-400 on this game. That would mean a failure for my money managment rules but I can live w/ that failure if I win. If I bet small and win I'll be still pissed b/c I haven't risked what I should have.
Somebody help me!!!

 

[alienx]

Trying to do my homework, hope this helps you guys as well:

F Grant Hill did not play in Thursday's 99-89 loss to Boston. However, he did tell the Orlando Sentinel tht his sprained left foot should not keep him out any longer than Saturday's game in Washington. Hill is second on the Magic in scoring at 16.8 points per game and first in rebounding (8.9 rpg). ... F Jud Buechler had a career-high 12 rebounds in 31 minutes off the bench on Friday. He scored seven points on 3-of-9 shooting. ... Reserves Pat Garrity and Troy Hudson combined for 23 points. ... G Tracy McGrady led the way with 22 points. ... G Darrell Armstrong had seven assists.

The Grizzlies have their first winning streak and road win of the season following Sunday's 93-87 win at Philadelphia. They had not beaten the 76ers since January 2, 1996, ending a 10-game slide in the series. ... F Stromile Swift played for the first time in six games due to a hyperextended left elbow. He had seven points and six rebounds in 20 minutes off the bench before limping off with a new injury in the final seconds. ... F Rodney Buford had 11 points and five rebounds in 27 minutes against his former team. Afterward, Buford got a long, warm hug from 76ers G Allen Iverson. The two were good friends on last season's Sixers club.

 

[nighthorse]

DONT DO IT!!!! If you feel really strongly, double the bet, maybe triple it, but don't do what you're thinking about. It's just not worth it. If you win tonight, then that sort of bet will seem even more logical next time a "lock" comes around. Eventually, the bets get bigger and too much of your stake goes on one bet. You'll keep doing it until you lose, and you will lose! And lots of work will be washed away. You may not believe it, but strong plays and great opportunities come along all the time. Just think back over the past couple of weeks. How many "strong plays" have you seen. i can think of 20 games i thought were excellent plays. I was right probably on 60% of them. Some flexibility in money management is acceptable. But what you are proposing is a very bad idea. Without getting into details, I've done it, I've blown it....dont do it.

 

[Nick Douglas]

Definitely DO NOT place a $300 bet on a game if you are betting $10 to $20 per game. A huge bet for you should be $30. Just remember that no matter how strong a game is, you will probably hit right around 60% of those games over the course of your lifetime. Simply not worth the risk, especially betting such a young, inconsistent team playing a back to back.

 

[alienx]

Thanks guys. The itch to bet bigger amounts is there but I'll listen the common sense. Nick, You are right about Memphis being young. I remember one of your posts about Jason Williams, Where Hoops have responded and argued how inconsistant Jason is and has been. I might be dead wrong but I think b/c they are a young team they will showup and play a close game. Veteran teams do decide to give up before the game time sometimes. They have nothing to prove. Memphis do need to prove they are a decent team.

Just my opinion.

 

[alienx]

I couldn't have been more wrong.