Monday

kcwolf

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 1, 2000
7,224
21
0
Iowa City
NFL: 65-36 +104.1 units

Thanks to everyone who made comments under the thread yesterday, very much appreciate the support.

Just want to thank everyone at this sight, posting very valuable information. I pour over stats as much as anyone, but I also read just about everything here before putting two and two together. The free picks page boasts established winners and should be considered when making a play.

Any large profit day is full breaks, and yesterday was no exception. Frustrating start with SF, but probably had no business picking up winners with NO, DEN, & MIA. One of those days where the totals seemed very clear, and hope there might be a few more of those days on the horizon.

Enough of yesterday, there is a game at hand tonight. When picking your spots, MNF can be a good opportunity to go contrarian to "public" perception. Hate the word "public", as it often doesn't apply to those at MadJack's.

Alot of Monday's do end up a little different than perceived.

A few rambling thoughts on tonight:

Coaches: Two very good coaches that I rate even.

QB's: McNair 49% completions, 3 TD's, 5 INT's
Stewart 63% completions, 1 TD, 4 INT's

Two poorly rated QB's with about the same rating. With McNair listed as probable, I give a slight advantage to Stewart.

Running game: Stats favor PIT, quite strongly.

Passing game: Edge Titans

Offenses: Both around 300 YPG, Titans score 3.6 points, more per game.

Defenses: Titans give up 100 more YPG, and give up 12.8 more points per game.

Common opponent was Jacksonville, with Pittsburgh losing 21-3 in week 1, away. Tennesee lost 13-6 in week 2, away.

Feel Titans have played the stronger schedule, but don't exclude Steelers playing 4 of first 5 on the road.

PIT has a 4 game winning streak, TEN has a two game winning streak.

Will be shopping lines when my local books open at 5:30p local.

Leaning Pittsburg, maybe the over. The obvious, in my breakdown, does actually look obvious tonight.

Back later,

kcwolf
 

volfan

Elephant Hunter
Forum Member
Jul 18, 1999
5,310
15
0
51
BIG ORANGE LAND!!
Great day KC...
I have been looking at this game and it doesn't look ez....
If TN plays to their potenial then they win, but what TN team shows up tonight?
With a win they are right back in the AFC race IMO.

------------------
Those who are skilled in combat do not become angered,
Those who are skilled at winning do not become afraid.
Thus the wise win before they fight, while the ignorant fight to win.
Zhuge Liang
__________________________________
When I examine myself and my methods of
thought, I come to the conclusion that the gift
of fantasy has meant more to me than my
talent for absorbing positive knowledge.

Albert Einstein
 

dawgball

Registered User
Forum Member
Feb 12, 2000
10,652
39
48
50
I agree with Volfan here with his statement about them being right back in the hunt. The teams leading this division are very volatile. Excluding Baltimore, the teams in front of them were a combined 16-32 last year. Not that I look at last year's results too much, but they have to still have confidence that they can make the playoffs with a strong finish.

I believe counting the Titans out this early would be a mistake.

I favor Tennessee with the points tonight.

------------------
Sic 'em
dawgball
 

kcwolf

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 1, 2000
7,224
21
0
Iowa City
dawgball,

volfan's and your comments are very compelling. Makes it harder to figure out, for "should".

Then throw in a few very respectable cappers that hang their hat at Jack's place, that are committed to TEN, makes one think.

Titans are capable, but really worry about injuries, especially to McNair, and the defensive backfield.

Used to respect Donnelly if a back up is needed, but sure looks like he's there for the paycheck, anymore.
 

kcwolf

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 1, 2000
7,224
21
0
Iowa City
Couple more thoughts since I have more than the usual time on my hands today:

Fully expect Titans to box it in to slow down Bettis's running game. Can they be successful? Personnaly doubt it.

Leaves a weak defensive backfield vunerable. Can Stewart capitalize?
 

djeze

Mr & Mrs djeze
Forum Member
Sep 21, 2000
714
0
0
49
Huntsville, AL
www.geocities.com
kc- I crunched some numbers today... wish I had them now, but here is what I remember. I like the fact that Pitt has the #1 rush offense, and that they have the highest yards per carry (5.8, next in line is 4.9) They also are #2 total defense, better on the pass than on the rush (I think that this is right). I like the fact that Pitt is 4-1 ATS and Tenn is 0-4-1, and that Pitt is at home here.

Startling fact #1: Tenn has not lost a fumble this year... This may change tonight, but takes away the defensive score possibility from Pitt. I am strongly leaning on Pitt...

Startling Fact #2: Even though Pitt covered both games last year, they have not beaten Tenn since 97.

I already have them -2.5 (130/100) bought the extra point, and am leaning toward under 18.5 for the first half.

Which side are you going to play?
 

Patience

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 20, 2000
273
0
0
Los Angeles, CA
The key to tonight game is the rushing game. I believe the team with the better rushing yards will win tonight. Both teams will attempt to establish the run early. Titans must be successful running the ball in order to pass effectively. Pitt's D will have a feast if Tenn becomes a one-dimensional passing team. Pitt also must run the ball effectively, because QB Stewart isn't much of a passer and WR Burress & Ward aren't huge receiving threats.

Statistically, Pitt's D is slightly better than Titan's D against the rush and much better against the pass. If (that's a BIG IF) both teams' D are able to stop each other's rushing game, then the Titans may win because of their better passing ability. However, the Bucs was unsuccessful in shutting down the Pitt's offense by stacking the box with nine men and going all-out after Bettis, granted Bucs' rush D isn't as good as Titans'. The $1 million question for tonight is which Offense will have more rushing yards???

[This message has been edited by Patience (edited 10-29-2001).]
 

djv

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 4, 2000
13,817
17
0
See many trend players following some good some bad. By that I mean some are to old. A good case could be made for. A,B,C,D??
I have a hard time with Tenn they do not play like Tenn I know. There stats tell us that. Someone said they have good rushing game. Tenn 97 yrds a game. Pitt 197 a game Total yrds given up on def Tenn 353 a game Pitt 247. Yrds passing Tenn is also giving more then Pitt. The Off per catch is about the same. Tenn has no advantage period. On the over//under. When I find to teams that avg such low number yrds per catch playing each other. It looks like a under 34 game.
Tenn has to change something to stay in this game. I have to go with those who like Pitt and under. I tryed to make a case for A & C above. I could not. GL to All.
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top