- Mar 2, 2006
- 4,794
- 120
- 0
ATS: 109-79-4 (+33.6)
OU: 62-53-1 (+2.4)
ML dogs: 3-7 (+1.5)
Nuggets
Since the 2005 season, teams playing as a home favorite against a non-conference opponent when they are coming off a home win of 20 or more are 115-29 SU (+8.3 ppg) and 83-55-6 ATS. Teams coming off an overtime loss playing on the road as a dog between 5 and 10 points (average line 7.1) are 25-45-5 ATS since the 2007 season. Teams playing on a 2 game ATS losing streak, when they have also lost two SU on the road, when playing in their last road game as a dog are 8-33 SU (-9.7 ppg) and 16-24-1 ATS since the 2009 season. In the same scenario when teams are playing non-conference opponents, they are 4-25 SU (-11.8 ppg) and 9-18-2 ATS since the 2007 season.
This season, the Pacers have not performed well on the road. As a dog they are 3-13 SU (-8.5) and 4-11-1 ATS, and vs. Western conference opponents they are 2-6 SU (-8.4 ppg) and 2-5-1 ATS. Since the 2009 season, the Pacers are 1-13 SU (-7.9 ppg) and 5-8-1 ATS as a road dog when they have failed to cover the spread in their last two games. The Pacers have only beat two teams with a winning record on the road this year. They are 2-9 SU and ATS against winning teams on the road this season.
The Nuggets beat the Pacers earlier this season as a dog on the road. When teams have won on the road as a dog and are playing at home as a favorite in the same season rematch, when their opponent is coming off of two road losses and this is their last game on the road, the home favorite is 51-27-2 ATS (average line 5.9) since the 1995 season. The Nuggets as a home favorite in a rematch game when they beat the team on the road already in the same season are 11-2 SU (+14.6 ppg) and 10-3 ATS in their last thirteen. The Pacers in the flipped scenario are 2-10 SU (-11.7 ppg) and 2-9-1 ATS in their last twelve.
The Nuggets should dominate this matchup in the paint. The Pacers are 2-7 SU (-9.9 ppg) and 3-6 ATS this season when they are outscored in the paint as a road dog. The Nuggets are 16-3 SU (+9.9 ppg) and 12-7 ATS when outscoring opponents in the paint at home as a favorite this season. They hold a +15 paint scoring edge on the Pacers, and so far this season, no one has outscored them in the paint on their home court.
When the Nuggets are playing as a home favorite facing a team coming off two road losses, they are 11-1 SU (+15.1 ppg) and 9-3 ATS since the calendar year 2011.
Nets
Teams playing as a home favorite of five or more after two road losses, against a team playing on no rest after a loss as a home favorite are 13-6 ATS since the 1997 season. The Nets have beat the Magic by an average of 19.7 points in their previous three meetings this season, holding them to 76 ppg. If the situation were different, this may be a game they would look past, but coming off of two really bad road losses, I like them to win big tonight and play a good defensive game. Since the 2011 season, teams playing as a home favorite with the average line of 9 are 20-2 SU (+14 ppg) and 17-5 ATS when coming off of two double digit road losses.
Rockets
This season, teams coming off of two double digit wins are 21-11 ATS (average line 5.5) as a road dog. Since the 2002 season, teams coming off of two double digit wins playing on the road as a dog against a team off an overtime win are 27-14-1 ATS and 28-12 OVER. The Rockets playing as a road dog after a game where they scored 10 points more than expected are 18-2 OVER in their last 20. The Rockets have covered their last two game, after a 9 game ATS losing streak. Teams in this situation are 8-1 SU (+4.4 ppg) and ATS in their last 9 (average line -0.4). They are also 7-2 OVER. As a road dog since 1995, teams with this ats streak history are 11-4 ATS. I think the Rockets are the better team, and they have really pushed the tempo in their last couple games. They owned the tempo and the Jazz at home earlier this year, and I think they can get them to play their game tonight. McHale: ?I've said it all year long. It's how we need to play, but we've got to be determined to do it. ... You have to be determined to just keep on going. ... When guys are crisp and moving, it becomes a lot of different actions that people have to guard.?
I have been working on some half time angles and will try to play more games at half when I am around.
Rockets +4
Rockets ML +155
Nets -9
Nuggets -5.5
Magic-Nets UNDER 195
Rockets OVER 206.5
Good luck...
OU: 62-53-1 (+2.4)
ML dogs: 3-7 (+1.5)
Nuggets
Since the 2005 season, teams playing as a home favorite against a non-conference opponent when they are coming off a home win of 20 or more are 115-29 SU (+8.3 ppg) and 83-55-6 ATS. Teams coming off an overtime loss playing on the road as a dog between 5 and 10 points (average line 7.1) are 25-45-5 ATS since the 2007 season. Teams playing on a 2 game ATS losing streak, when they have also lost two SU on the road, when playing in their last road game as a dog are 8-33 SU (-9.7 ppg) and 16-24-1 ATS since the 2009 season. In the same scenario when teams are playing non-conference opponents, they are 4-25 SU (-11.8 ppg) and 9-18-2 ATS since the 2007 season.
This season, the Pacers have not performed well on the road. As a dog they are 3-13 SU (-8.5) and 4-11-1 ATS, and vs. Western conference opponents they are 2-6 SU (-8.4 ppg) and 2-5-1 ATS. Since the 2009 season, the Pacers are 1-13 SU (-7.9 ppg) and 5-8-1 ATS as a road dog when they have failed to cover the spread in their last two games. The Pacers have only beat two teams with a winning record on the road this year. They are 2-9 SU and ATS against winning teams on the road this season.
The Nuggets beat the Pacers earlier this season as a dog on the road. When teams have won on the road as a dog and are playing at home as a favorite in the same season rematch, when their opponent is coming off of two road losses and this is their last game on the road, the home favorite is 51-27-2 ATS (average line 5.9) since the 1995 season. The Nuggets as a home favorite in a rematch game when they beat the team on the road already in the same season are 11-2 SU (+14.6 ppg) and 10-3 ATS in their last thirteen. The Pacers in the flipped scenario are 2-10 SU (-11.7 ppg) and 2-9-1 ATS in their last twelve.
The Nuggets should dominate this matchup in the paint. The Pacers are 2-7 SU (-9.9 ppg) and 3-6 ATS this season when they are outscored in the paint as a road dog. The Nuggets are 16-3 SU (+9.9 ppg) and 12-7 ATS when outscoring opponents in the paint at home as a favorite this season. They hold a +15 paint scoring edge on the Pacers, and so far this season, no one has outscored them in the paint on their home court.
When the Nuggets are playing as a home favorite facing a team coming off two road losses, they are 11-1 SU (+15.1 ppg) and 9-3 ATS since the calendar year 2011.
Nets
Teams playing as a home favorite of five or more after two road losses, against a team playing on no rest after a loss as a home favorite are 13-6 ATS since the 1997 season. The Nets have beat the Magic by an average of 19.7 points in their previous three meetings this season, holding them to 76 ppg. If the situation were different, this may be a game they would look past, but coming off of two really bad road losses, I like them to win big tonight and play a good defensive game. Since the 2011 season, teams playing as a home favorite with the average line of 9 are 20-2 SU (+14 ppg) and 17-5 ATS when coming off of two double digit road losses.
Rockets
This season, teams coming off of two double digit wins are 21-11 ATS (average line 5.5) as a road dog. Since the 2002 season, teams coming off of two double digit wins playing on the road as a dog against a team off an overtime win are 27-14-1 ATS and 28-12 OVER. The Rockets playing as a road dog after a game where they scored 10 points more than expected are 18-2 OVER in their last 20. The Rockets have covered their last two game, after a 9 game ATS losing streak. Teams in this situation are 8-1 SU (+4.4 ppg) and ATS in their last 9 (average line -0.4). They are also 7-2 OVER. As a road dog since 1995, teams with this ats streak history are 11-4 ATS. I think the Rockets are the better team, and they have really pushed the tempo in their last couple games. They owned the tempo and the Jazz at home earlier this year, and I think they can get them to play their game tonight. McHale: ?I've said it all year long. It's how we need to play, but we've got to be determined to do it. ... You have to be determined to just keep on going. ... When guys are crisp and moving, it becomes a lot of different actions that people have to guard.?
I have been working on some half time angles and will try to play more games at half when I am around.
Rockets +4
Rockets ML +155
Nets -9
Nuggets -5.5
Magic-Nets UNDER 195
Rockets OVER 206.5
Good luck...
