Warriors-Sixers
Two strange things have happened so far this season. Road favorites have really struggled, going 2-13 ATS, and the Sixers have started the season 3-0, beating two playoff teams from last season in the process. Brett Brown has done a great job with his young team so far, and their performances have been very impressive. But, in the end, teams will not be judged by their first three games. To say that the Sixers were underrated before the season began is certainly true (you would be quite happy right now if you were sitting on a bet for the Sixers to win over 17.5 games), but no other hasty judgments should be made about this team, just yet. For me, this game tonight is all about regression towards the mean. When variables are showing extreme results, eventually, those results are going to correct themselves to align with a more accurate measurement.
Over the past five seasons, road favorites have been a pretty solid bet, covering at a rate of 52.9%. Sure, that is barely at a break even point, but it is 2.1% above what all favorites covered, and 2% above what all road teams covered, showing that road favorites do have a slight edge. Any edge you can get in sports gambling should be used, as applying a small advantage over and over is what can win you money in the long run. Road favorites dismal 13.3% cover rate so far this season will certainly correct itself to arrive more around the 50% mark. Road favorites in November have performed even better historically, covering 55.5% of games over the last five seasons, and the covers for road favorites should steadily improve this month.
The Sixers are about due to run out of gas. They have now come back from two large halftime deficits, where they were trailing big in each. Over the last ten seasons, teams that came back to win in two games where they were trailing at half time by five or more are 48-71-1 ATS (40.3%) in their next game. The higher the halftime deficits they overcome, the lower the cover rate in these samples. The Sixers also won a thriller in their last game over the Bulls, by not only overcoming a large deficit, but also by winning the game by one possession. Teams that overcome a halftime deficit of ten or more and win by one possession as a dog, are 31-45-1 (40.8%) in their next game. The emotional wave that the Sixers have been riding makes for a great story, but at some point, this bubble has to be burst, and the Warriors are the perfect team to do this.
The Warriors are improved over last season, when they were a pleasant surprise in the western conference. They have a core of very solid young players, with a budding super star in Curry. Playing against a team like the Sixers that want to run fits the Warriors style well. Last season in games where they were a favorite of three or more and the total was over 200, the Warriors were 12-7 ATS (63.2%), winning by an average margin of 9.26 points. Expect the Warriors to put up some points tonight, as they are 26-13 ATS (66.7%) on the road after a game where they scored less than 100 points. If they want to reserve their spot among the western elite, they need to win the games they are supposed to, and they need to start their four game road trip strong with a winnable game. Teams playing in their first game of an at least two game road trip are 113-69-3 (62.1%) when playing as a road favorite of five or more over the last ten seasons.
The Heat may have been looking past the Sixers in a back to back game after beating the Bulls at home in an emotional game, and the Wizards are still just...the Wizards. But now that the Sixers beat the Bulls as well, who really had no excuse for their collapse except that they are offensively challenged at times, no team is going to look past this Sixers squad for the moment.
Road favorites that win the game cover the spread 80.5% of the time over the last five seasons, and I expect a big win by the Warriors tonight. Only eight teams since the millennium have won three straight games as a dog of seven or more in each, and in the fourth game, they are 0-8, losing by an average of 18 points per game.
Warriors -6.5 (-107)
