Hawks-Bobkitties
The Hawks take on the Bobcats tonight as a road favorite. They don?t get this distinction very often, but over the last two seasons they have been able to capitalize on the road as a favorite, going 24-6 SU and winning by 9.73 points per game, while covering 70.4% of these contests. Both of these teams have started the season 3-3, but one team should have a lot more wins by the end of the season than the other, and that?s the one I?ll take tonight.
The Hawks are playing very well as a team right now, and they are leading the league at 28.3 assists per game. They have also been taking care of the ball well, as they are leading the league in least turnovers per possession as well. They logged 36 assists against the Magic in their last game, which really highlights their ability to distribute and shoot. Over the last five seasons, teams playing as a road favorite coming off a home game where they had 30 or more assists are 57-38 ATS (60.0%). The Hawks themselves over the last two seasons are 10-1 ATS when playing on the road after a home game where they had 30 or more assists.
Their high assist rate has also led to a 51.7% effective field goal rate, good for fifth in the league, and this is an important metric for evaluating teams and talent. On the other side, Charlotte is second to last in the league in effective field goal percentage. While Charlotte has won three games, when you look at the effective field goal percentage of the opponents they faced in these three wins (Cavs - 3rd to last, Knicks - 10th to last, Raptors - 19th), it puts these contests into a bit more perspective. The Hawks should be able to beat Charlotte in two important statistical areas tonight - field goal percentage and assists. When teams win these two categories, not surprisingly they are able to cover the spread at a rate of 80.5% in a sample of over 4000 games over the last five seasons.
The Hawks are starting to get on a roll, and catching teams near the beginning of a good streak is valuable for bettors. Teams coming off a double digit home win that are playing as a road favorite against an opponent coming off a home loss are 43-28-2 (60.6%) ATS over the past four seasons. This is also an important divisional game, as the winner of this game will be tied with the Heat for the division lead. If both these teams play fully motivated, Atlanta is more talented and should be able to win and cover the game. Over the last two seasons, the Hawks are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS versus the Bobcats, winning by an average margin of over 16 points per game. Over the last two seasons, the Bobcats playing as a home dog off a loss struggle, going just 17-30-2 ATS (36.2%).
Finally, there is the Jeff Teague factor. When Teague has 5 or more assists in a road game, the Hawks are 38-21-2 ATS (64.4%). Teague racked up 13 assists in their last game, and after a game where he had more than 10 assists, he has tallied five or more assists in the next game in 91.7% of these contests. The Hawks should be able to distribute the ball well in this game and their sharp shooters will get the points necessary to win.
Hawks -2.5
was semi-smiling and snuffling but ok, and said you have to run and sweat it out and get ready and not use the illness as an excuse.
