07:35 PM NBA [506] Brooklyn Nets +8.5 -145 (B+2)
10:35 PM NBA [513] TOTAL o230.5 -110 (Denver Nuggets vrs Golden State Warriors)
08:00 PM CBB [542] Texas State -4-110
07:00 PM CBB Added Game [557] Monmouth -5.5 -110
07:00 PM CBB Added Game [560] Furman -5-110
07:05 PM NHL [4] New Jersey Devils +131
10:05 PM NHL [5] Colorado Avalanche +125
1 unit bet pays 114 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Avalanche are 8-23 in the last 31 trips to Vancouver [but CO off an embarrassing string of home losses, now hit the road where they have a better record]
last 7 Denver / Golden State meetings have gone over
Chi Bulls have gone just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games overall
Nuggets / Warriors Over 227.5
Usually I would autofade this kind of number for the under, but these two teams might score 250 in this game tonight...GS will be running at high speed and Denver shoots very early in the shot clock...Turnovers will be huge tonight and fast break points will be very high...GS will eventually shoot the lights out at some point, but Denver will keep on answering the bell in this one..High number, but i'd rather take the over with these two teams then sweat out an under play.
Nuggets vs. Warriors
Play: Warriors -14?
The Warriors already crushed the Nuggets by 24 points at Denver back in November and I could see this one also turning ugly. The Nuggets are struggling right now. They've failed to cover five straight and couldn't even beat the 76'ers in their last game. Knowing that they've got a winnable game (Sacramento) on deck tomorrow night, if/when they fall behind big here, they may save some gas in the tank for the Kings, rather than giving everything needed to fight back. The Warriors, who don't play tomorrow so have no reason to "save themselves," are 4-1 ATS their last five as home favorites in the -12.5 to -15 range. They're outscoring teams by a 120.9 to 104.1 average here and I won't be surprised when they exceed that 16.8 margin tonight.
Oklahoma City at Milwaukee
Play: Oklahoma City +2
The Oklahoma City Thunder closed out the calendar year in style by winning five of their last six games. They covered the spread in each victory and are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with the Bucks at Milwaukee. The Bucks have alternated wins and losses through their past six games (covering the spread in the wins but not in the defeats), and I think they're due for a loss again as they're coming off a 116-96 win at Chicago. We can also note that the Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win of more than 10 points and OKC has Victor Oladipo back from injury which is a huge plus for the visitors
As the clincher; Thunder are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Monday games while the Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last five Monday games.
Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls
Play: Charlotte Hornets Pk
The Bulls are a team that look like they are in real trouble. Last game they lost to the Bucks 116-96, for the 3rd straight time in a month and today they take on another foe that they have had trouble with in the Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets have already beaten the Bulls just before XMAS 103-91 in Charlotte and we will be backing the visitor here tonight. The Hornets are coming off of a loss themselves to the World Champion Cleveland Cavaliers 121 -109. Despite that loss the Hornets have been playing great basketball of late winning 5 out of their last 7. The Bulls allowed Milwaukee to shoot 56.6% from the field the last game and that kind of defense will be trouble for any NBA team. The problem for the Bulls all year hasn't been their defense but their offense, and now they have gone 3 out of their last 4 games shooting under 40%.With the Bulls being a mess on both sides of the ball lately look for Charlotte to pick up the win. The oddsmaker has this game at a PK at the time of this writing and we will put a small portion of our bankroll on the Hornets
Nuggets vs. Warriors
Play: Warriors -14?
Denver comes in at 14-19 and currently on the outside looking in sitting in the 9th spot in the West. Denver is coming of a loss, but have won six of 10. Denver has a 7-10 record on the road, but have held their own in conference with a 9-10 record. Golden State is the top team in the West and in the NBA with a 29-5 record. Golden State has won their last two games, nine of 10, and 14-2 at home. Golden State is 19-4 in conference games and have been scoring a league high 117 point per game. These two teams first met in Denver on November 10th with the Warriors winning 125-101 as Curry went off for 33. For the season Curry and Durant have been averaging a combined 50 points a game. Durant's best scoring month is January and with the calendar flipping over look for big points and scores nearly 30 points a game against Denver. Durant will go for 35 points with the good numbers and Curry will add in 30 of his own getting some open looks with the Nuggets looking to stop Durant.
Samford at Western Carolina
Pick: Samford
Not many options for Western Carolina, which scores only 58 ppg and has little comeback ability as it shoots below 28% beyond the arc. The Catamounts were gutted by graduation after last season and have suffered some frightful beatings, with six of their last seven losses by double digits. Much prefer Samford side bound for some postseason tourney and owning excellent balance with four DD scorers. Many ways for Bulldogs to extend margin as they shoot better than 40% from the floor and 72% from the FT line.
Marshall vs. Florida Atlantic
Play: Marshall -5.5
Marshall was able to build off of their competitive recent defeats on the road against Cincy and Pitt as the Thundering Herd dominated action in their conference opener taking down FIU on the road by a final of 94-70. This Marshall squad returns a lot of veteran talent from last year?s team and the Herd have the tools to compete for the CUSA regular season title. Marshall likes to play at a frantic pace and this group has been lighting up the scoreboard ranking 8th in the nation in scoring average. Elmore and Browning have been the offensive anchors leading the team averaging 20.9 and 17.6 points per game respectively. FAU hasn?t gotten off to the kind of start they were hoping for this season standing 4-8 overall and looking bad in their conference home opener losing to Western Kentucky by a final of 54-69.
The Marshall Thundering Herd are playing with a ton of confidence and momentum right now on the offensive end. We like for Marshall to keep things rolling as they go on to win and cover this manageable spread on the road Monday night.
Arkansas St -10
Several highlight moments thru pre-Sun Belt play for Ark State, whose new HC Grant McCasland uncovered a couple of juco nuggets (Gs Deven Simms & Rashad Lindsey) to bolster the firepower quotient of a hot-shooting offense that has been near 50% from the floor the entire season, as former Kent State transfer and sr. G Devin Carter (17.6 ppg) continues to provide leadership. Not as much good news for ULM, where HC Keith Richard had to replace six starters and needed a series of soft foes in his pre-league slate to pad the team's W-L record. The Warhawks have been exposed vs. competent opposition, including 27-point blowout loss at Chattanooga last month.
Towson vs James Madison
Play: Towson
What is wrong with the Dukes? They are 3-11 on the season after going 21-11 last season ? another solid season under head coach Matt Brady. Therein lies the problem! Brady was surprisingly let go last season (after 8 seasons with James Madison) and his replacement, Louis Rowe, is in his first season as a head coach. The results have not been pretty and, though the Dukes are off of back to back back wins, they truly haven?t ?turned the corner? just yet. The reason James Madison has won two straight after a 1-11 start is because they played an out-classed Eastern Mennonite team and then shot ?lights out? against Drexel. Every team has a hot shooting night once in awhile but the long-term numbers tell the ?full story? with the Dukes. James Madison had been held under 41.8% from the field in 7 of their first 12 games this season. The Dukes defense is also a concern as they are allowing 43.4% on the season while Towson is allowing only 39.8% from the field. We are getting some line value here because the Tigers are 0-4 ATS (and 1-3 SU) in their last 4 meetings with the Dukes. The fact is Towson has the upper hand now with a huge coaching edge, Pat Skerry in his 6th season with the Tigers, and they?ll be looking to make up for past struggles at James Madison. Simply put, the Dukes are still in a state of flux after the coaching change. Look for James Madison to drop to 1-8 ATS as an underdog this season while the Tigers improve to 14-6 ATS when playing with one day or less of rest.
Item: Is Oklahoma?s offense beyond what even a good defense can stop?
Finally something to get into play in the Orange Bowl tonight, behind #282 Oklahoma....This one provides what looks like the classical battle of one team having the far better offense and the other the far better defense, but with a catch ? might the Oklahoma skill players be so good that even a talented defense will be on their heels?
In QB Baker Mayfield, WR Dede Westbrook, and RBs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon, the Sooners have a skill cast of players that will all be performing on Sundays in the near future. It took them a while to get into rhythm, but note that even in those early losses to Houston and Ohio State they still reached 400 yards each time. Then they ignited and soared through the remainder of the season, capped by scoring 94 points and gaining 1,215 yards in the final two games vs. respectable West Virginia and Oklahoma State defenses.
Auburn?s defense has not just contained people, the Tigers have playmakers up front that have created havoc at times for opposing offenses. But it isn't just an issue of the Oklahoma talent, there is also a matter of tempo as well ? Auburn spent the month of November facing opponents than ran rather stodgy paces (Vanderbilt/Georgia/Alabama A&M/Alabama), so not only is adjusting to the tempo an issue, but also adjusting to being off since November 26, which makes conditioning a factor against that tempo as well.
The flip side of the matchup is that while the Oklahoma defense was nothing special, neither was the Auburn offense, this being the one season in which not many chapters of the Gus Malzahn playbook got used. There were limitations at QB that kept things vanilla, and while the Tigers had some games in which they could power up and control the line of scrimmage, when some finesse was needed it was not there. The Sooners got beat over the top this season, allowing an alarming count of a dozen TD passes of 40 yards or more, but that is not the way Auburn attacks ? the only two TD passes of more than 40 yards came in the same game, vs. out-manned UL-Monroe.
Malzahn?s offense will make some plays here, but I don?t think there will quite be enough, which makes this spread a fair value for the team with the far better skill players to eventually come away with the scoreboard win, which is just about all that is being called for now to cash a ticket.
Penn State / USC Under 60
The Nittany Lions have been an over team all season, but this is a game where they do not want to get in a shootout with an opponent that has a much better set of skill position players, so look for James Franklin and his staff to come out with a conservative game plan today The Trojans, meanwhile, are 9-3 to the under this season and an even better 7-1 to the under when listed as a favorite and the USC defense has allowed more than 20 points just twice in its last eight games. It?s a low-scoring game in Pasadena.
Auburn vs. Oklahoma
Pick: Auburn +2.5
Early in the 2016 season, the opponents in this year?s Allstate Sugar Bowl ? Auburn and Oklahoma ? were written off as contenders for their respective conference titles, not to mention the College Football Playoff. Both Sooners and the Tigers lost two of their first three games to teams ranked in the AP Top 25. It was bad enough at Auburn that head coach Gus Malzahn?s job security was questioned. It?s a good thing there were plenty of games left for both teams. Oklahoma (10-2) hasn?t lost a game since and Auburn (8-4) won six in a row to crawl back into the SEC West race before losses to Georgia and Alabama derailed the Tigers? championship hopes.
Now, the two tradition-rich teams will square off in a game that will feature plenty of offense. The Sooners are the No. 3 offense in the country in terms of scoring and total offense. Oklahoma averages a whopping 557 yards per game and 44.7 points running their version of the Air Raid offense. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has 3,669 yards passing and 38 touchdowns. The Sooners, who rush for 237.5 yards per game, have the best one-two combination of running backs in the country. Joe Mixon has 1,183 yards and teammate Samaje Perine isn?t far behind with 974. Mayfield and his top receiver, Dede Westbrook (1,465 yards, 16 TDs), were finalists for the Heisman Trophy.
Auburn, which has struggled for a year or two, has finally got back to its roots. The Tigers are sixth in the nation in rushing offense averaging 278.5 yards a game. Kamryn Pettway leads the Tigers with 1,123 yards on the ground. The time off has helped Pettway get back to 100 percent for the bowl game. Kerryon Johnson has 862 yards on the ground and leads the team with 11 rushing touchdowns. While the passing game isn?t that great, QB Sean White is efficient enough (65.2 percent, 1,644 yards). The key for Auburn could be its defense which is remarkably better under new defensive coordinator Kevin Steele. The Tigers are fifth in the nation in scoring defense allowing just 15.6 points per game.
USC vs Penn St
Play: USC -6.5
On Sunday September 25th the USC Trojans and Penn St Nittany Lions were a combined 3-5 with visions of the Rose Bowl not even appearing in their wildest dreams. However on Selection Sunday many called for Penn St to receive a playoff berth while even more called USC the team that was playing the best football of anyone. One example of how well these two were playing is that they combined to cover 14 straight games against the spread and did so convincingly by an amazing 18 PPG! This is the tenth meeting in this series with USC leading 5-4 including their last showdown in the 2009 Rose Bowl (35-24). While this was the last Rose Bowl trip for both teams the Trojans obviously play here against UCLA every other year and they were at this site back on November 19th when they beat the Bruins 36-14.
The USC Trojans started the season 1-3 but their opener was against Alabama then after a win against Utah St they played at my then #12 defense Stanford and at my then #7 defense Utah. Most teams would go 1-3 with that schedule their first four games. The Trojans made a QB change for the Utah game and the Sam Darnold era started. Darnold started the final 9 throwing for 2,663 (68.1%) with a 26-8 ratio and finished #10 in QB rating. RB Justin Davis started the first 6 and was injured had 564 yds and 5.4 YPC but Ronald Jones stepped in and after having only 152 yards after 5 games he finished with 1,027 yards and an impressive 6.5 YPC with both available here. JJ Shuster led with 63 receptions and 781 yards. USC can also thank Thorpe winner/AA returnman Adoree? Jackson for four TD?s with a pair coming on both KR?s and PR?s. The defense has my #11 ranking as while they were #30 in yards allowed they faced FIVE of my top 22 offenses. Ten defenders started 11 or more games and with DT Zach Brenner clogging the middle yards are tough to come by.
Penn St was 2-2 and trailed Minnesota 13-3 at halftime. In OT Minny kicked a FG but one play later the Lions and parlayed that victory with a win against Maryland to be 4-2 going into their bye week. A ?white-out? win changed their destiny as they trailed Ohio St 21-7 in the 4Q but got a TD after a blocked punt and another on a blocked TD giving then their first win against a AP ranked #1 of #2 since 1990. Two games later the Lions outgained Iowa by 365 yards the week before the Hawkeyes beat Michigan and then in the regular season finale they trailed Michigan St at halftime but outscored them 35-0 in the 2H to get to the B10 Title game. Penn St trailed yet again versus Wisconsin but came back from a 28-7 deficit. Usually when a team improves down the stretch it is thanks to god health but Penn St actually started 5 different OL combos their last 5 games due to injuries. Sophomore QB Trace McSorely threw for 3,360 yards with a 25-5 ratio and while he only completed 57.5% there are reason why. McSorely led the country in yards per completions at 16.1 YPC and was second in the nation with 61 completions over 20 yards and 22 completions of 40 yards. Big Ten offensive POY Saquon Barkley rushed for 1,302 yards (5.3) and added 347 yards (15.1) receiving. Chris Godwin (795, 15.9) was the top receiver but Saeed Blacknell who had 9 receptions into the B10 Title game had 6 for 155 yds with 2 TD?s in that game. The Lions with my #19 defense lost 5 LB?s to season ending injuries this year and Brian Bell missed 4.5 games yet still finished second in tackles. No player earned first team all-conference honors but 18 players at least ? sack with a pair sharing the lead at 6.
The 4 Playoff teams have a combined record of 48-3 with two losses coming against these two foes as USC beat Washington and Penn St beat Ohio St. While the Nittany Lions are a feel good story the talent gap is too wide. First year USC head coach Clay Helton has brought a workman-like attitude to USC with the glitz and glamour now gone. That?s the type of team you need to cover as a major bowl favorite. Penn St has only faced two teams that are the same caliber of the Trojans and against the Buckeyes and Wolverines they were outgained by 436 yards and outF?d by 11. The USC football program has basically been an embarrassment with their last 5 bowls being the Holiday (2X), Las Vegas, Sun and Emerald and the cream rises to the top.
USC FUN FACT: USC has played in the Rose Bowl game during the term of every US President since Herbert Hoover in 1929.
USC Trojans 42 Penn State Nittany Lions 30
10:35 PM NBA [513] TOTAL o230.5 -110 (Denver Nuggets vrs Golden State Warriors)
08:00 PM CBB [542] Texas State -4-110
07:00 PM CBB Added Game [557] Monmouth -5.5 -110
07:00 PM CBB Added Game [560] Furman -5-110
07:05 PM NHL [4] New Jersey Devils +131
10:05 PM NHL [5] Colorado Avalanche +125
1 unit bet pays 114 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Avalanche are 8-23 in the last 31 trips to Vancouver [but CO off an embarrassing string of home losses, now hit the road where they have a better record]
last 7 Denver / Golden State meetings have gone over
Chi Bulls have gone just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games overall
Nuggets / Warriors Over 227.5
Usually I would autofade this kind of number for the under, but these two teams might score 250 in this game tonight...GS will be running at high speed and Denver shoots very early in the shot clock...Turnovers will be huge tonight and fast break points will be very high...GS will eventually shoot the lights out at some point, but Denver will keep on answering the bell in this one..High number, but i'd rather take the over with these two teams then sweat out an under play.
Nuggets vs. Warriors
Play: Warriors -14?
The Warriors already crushed the Nuggets by 24 points at Denver back in November and I could see this one also turning ugly. The Nuggets are struggling right now. They've failed to cover five straight and couldn't even beat the 76'ers in their last game. Knowing that they've got a winnable game (Sacramento) on deck tomorrow night, if/when they fall behind big here, they may save some gas in the tank for the Kings, rather than giving everything needed to fight back. The Warriors, who don't play tomorrow so have no reason to "save themselves," are 4-1 ATS their last five as home favorites in the -12.5 to -15 range. They're outscoring teams by a 120.9 to 104.1 average here and I won't be surprised when they exceed that 16.8 margin tonight.
Oklahoma City at Milwaukee
Play: Oklahoma City +2
The Oklahoma City Thunder closed out the calendar year in style by winning five of their last six games. They covered the spread in each victory and are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with the Bucks at Milwaukee. The Bucks have alternated wins and losses through their past six games (covering the spread in the wins but not in the defeats), and I think they're due for a loss again as they're coming off a 116-96 win at Chicago. We can also note that the Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win of more than 10 points and OKC has Victor Oladipo back from injury which is a huge plus for the visitors
As the clincher; Thunder are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Monday games while the Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last five Monday games.
Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls
Play: Charlotte Hornets Pk
The Bulls are a team that look like they are in real trouble. Last game they lost to the Bucks 116-96, for the 3rd straight time in a month and today they take on another foe that they have had trouble with in the Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets have already beaten the Bulls just before XMAS 103-91 in Charlotte and we will be backing the visitor here tonight. The Hornets are coming off of a loss themselves to the World Champion Cleveland Cavaliers 121 -109. Despite that loss the Hornets have been playing great basketball of late winning 5 out of their last 7. The Bulls allowed Milwaukee to shoot 56.6% from the field the last game and that kind of defense will be trouble for any NBA team. The problem for the Bulls all year hasn't been their defense but their offense, and now they have gone 3 out of their last 4 games shooting under 40%.With the Bulls being a mess on both sides of the ball lately look for Charlotte to pick up the win. The oddsmaker has this game at a PK at the time of this writing and we will put a small portion of our bankroll on the Hornets
Nuggets vs. Warriors
Play: Warriors -14?
Denver comes in at 14-19 and currently on the outside looking in sitting in the 9th spot in the West. Denver is coming of a loss, but have won six of 10. Denver has a 7-10 record on the road, but have held their own in conference with a 9-10 record. Golden State is the top team in the West and in the NBA with a 29-5 record. Golden State has won their last two games, nine of 10, and 14-2 at home. Golden State is 19-4 in conference games and have been scoring a league high 117 point per game. These two teams first met in Denver on November 10th with the Warriors winning 125-101 as Curry went off for 33. For the season Curry and Durant have been averaging a combined 50 points a game. Durant's best scoring month is January and with the calendar flipping over look for big points and scores nearly 30 points a game against Denver. Durant will go for 35 points with the good numbers and Curry will add in 30 of his own getting some open looks with the Nuggets looking to stop Durant.
Samford at Western Carolina
Pick: Samford
Not many options for Western Carolina, which scores only 58 ppg and has little comeback ability as it shoots below 28% beyond the arc. The Catamounts were gutted by graduation after last season and have suffered some frightful beatings, with six of their last seven losses by double digits. Much prefer Samford side bound for some postseason tourney and owning excellent balance with four DD scorers. Many ways for Bulldogs to extend margin as they shoot better than 40% from the floor and 72% from the FT line.
Marshall vs. Florida Atlantic
Play: Marshall -5.5
Marshall was able to build off of their competitive recent defeats on the road against Cincy and Pitt as the Thundering Herd dominated action in their conference opener taking down FIU on the road by a final of 94-70. This Marshall squad returns a lot of veteran talent from last year?s team and the Herd have the tools to compete for the CUSA regular season title. Marshall likes to play at a frantic pace and this group has been lighting up the scoreboard ranking 8th in the nation in scoring average. Elmore and Browning have been the offensive anchors leading the team averaging 20.9 and 17.6 points per game respectively. FAU hasn?t gotten off to the kind of start they were hoping for this season standing 4-8 overall and looking bad in their conference home opener losing to Western Kentucky by a final of 54-69.
The Marshall Thundering Herd are playing with a ton of confidence and momentum right now on the offensive end. We like for Marshall to keep things rolling as they go on to win and cover this manageable spread on the road Monday night.
Arkansas St -10
Several highlight moments thru pre-Sun Belt play for Ark State, whose new HC Grant McCasland uncovered a couple of juco nuggets (Gs Deven Simms & Rashad Lindsey) to bolster the firepower quotient of a hot-shooting offense that has been near 50% from the floor the entire season, as former Kent State transfer and sr. G Devin Carter (17.6 ppg) continues to provide leadership. Not as much good news for ULM, where HC Keith Richard had to replace six starters and needed a series of soft foes in his pre-league slate to pad the team's W-L record. The Warhawks have been exposed vs. competent opposition, including 27-point blowout loss at Chattanooga last month.
Towson vs James Madison
Play: Towson
What is wrong with the Dukes? They are 3-11 on the season after going 21-11 last season ? another solid season under head coach Matt Brady. Therein lies the problem! Brady was surprisingly let go last season (after 8 seasons with James Madison) and his replacement, Louis Rowe, is in his first season as a head coach. The results have not been pretty and, though the Dukes are off of back to back back wins, they truly haven?t ?turned the corner? just yet. The reason James Madison has won two straight after a 1-11 start is because they played an out-classed Eastern Mennonite team and then shot ?lights out? against Drexel. Every team has a hot shooting night once in awhile but the long-term numbers tell the ?full story? with the Dukes. James Madison had been held under 41.8% from the field in 7 of their first 12 games this season. The Dukes defense is also a concern as they are allowing 43.4% on the season while Towson is allowing only 39.8% from the field. We are getting some line value here because the Tigers are 0-4 ATS (and 1-3 SU) in their last 4 meetings with the Dukes. The fact is Towson has the upper hand now with a huge coaching edge, Pat Skerry in his 6th season with the Tigers, and they?ll be looking to make up for past struggles at James Madison. Simply put, the Dukes are still in a state of flux after the coaching change. Look for James Madison to drop to 1-8 ATS as an underdog this season while the Tigers improve to 14-6 ATS when playing with one day or less of rest.
Item: Is Oklahoma?s offense beyond what even a good defense can stop?
Finally something to get into play in the Orange Bowl tonight, behind #282 Oklahoma....This one provides what looks like the classical battle of one team having the far better offense and the other the far better defense, but with a catch ? might the Oklahoma skill players be so good that even a talented defense will be on their heels?
In QB Baker Mayfield, WR Dede Westbrook, and RBs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon, the Sooners have a skill cast of players that will all be performing on Sundays in the near future. It took them a while to get into rhythm, but note that even in those early losses to Houston and Ohio State they still reached 400 yards each time. Then they ignited and soared through the remainder of the season, capped by scoring 94 points and gaining 1,215 yards in the final two games vs. respectable West Virginia and Oklahoma State defenses.
Auburn?s defense has not just contained people, the Tigers have playmakers up front that have created havoc at times for opposing offenses. But it isn't just an issue of the Oklahoma talent, there is also a matter of tempo as well ? Auburn spent the month of November facing opponents than ran rather stodgy paces (Vanderbilt/Georgia/Alabama A&M/Alabama), so not only is adjusting to the tempo an issue, but also adjusting to being off since November 26, which makes conditioning a factor against that tempo as well.
The flip side of the matchup is that while the Oklahoma defense was nothing special, neither was the Auburn offense, this being the one season in which not many chapters of the Gus Malzahn playbook got used. There were limitations at QB that kept things vanilla, and while the Tigers had some games in which they could power up and control the line of scrimmage, when some finesse was needed it was not there. The Sooners got beat over the top this season, allowing an alarming count of a dozen TD passes of 40 yards or more, but that is not the way Auburn attacks ? the only two TD passes of more than 40 yards came in the same game, vs. out-manned UL-Monroe.
Malzahn?s offense will make some plays here, but I don?t think there will quite be enough, which makes this spread a fair value for the team with the far better skill players to eventually come away with the scoreboard win, which is just about all that is being called for now to cash a ticket.
Penn State / USC Under 60
The Nittany Lions have been an over team all season, but this is a game where they do not want to get in a shootout with an opponent that has a much better set of skill position players, so look for James Franklin and his staff to come out with a conservative game plan today The Trojans, meanwhile, are 9-3 to the under this season and an even better 7-1 to the under when listed as a favorite and the USC defense has allowed more than 20 points just twice in its last eight games. It?s a low-scoring game in Pasadena.
Auburn vs. Oklahoma
Pick: Auburn +2.5
Early in the 2016 season, the opponents in this year?s Allstate Sugar Bowl ? Auburn and Oklahoma ? were written off as contenders for their respective conference titles, not to mention the College Football Playoff. Both Sooners and the Tigers lost two of their first three games to teams ranked in the AP Top 25. It was bad enough at Auburn that head coach Gus Malzahn?s job security was questioned. It?s a good thing there were plenty of games left for both teams. Oklahoma (10-2) hasn?t lost a game since and Auburn (8-4) won six in a row to crawl back into the SEC West race before losses to Georgia and Alabama derailed the Tigers? championship hopes.
Now, the two tradition-rich teams will square off in a game that will feature plenty of offense. The Sooners are the No. 3 offense in the country in terms of scoring and total offense. Oklahoma averages a whopping 557 yards per game and 44.7 points running their version of the Air Raid offense. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has 3,669 yards passing and 38 touchdowns. The Sooners, who rush for 237.5 yards per game, have the best one-two combination of running backs in the country. Joe Mixon has 1,183 yards and teammate Samaje Perine isn?t far behind with 974. Mayfield and his top receiver, Dede Westbrook (1,465 yards, 16 TDs), were finalists for the Heisman Trophy.
Auburn, which has struggled for a year or two, has finally got back to its roots. The Tigers are sixth in the nation in rushing offense averaging 278.5 yards a game. Kamryn Pettway leads the Tigers with 1,123 yards on the ground. The time off has helped Pettway get back to 100 percent for the bowl game. Kerryon Johnson has 862 yards on the ground and leads the team with 11 rushing touchdowns. While the passing game isn?t that great, QB Sean White is efficient enough (65.2 percent, 1,644 yards). The key for Auburn could be its defense which is remarkably better under new defensive coordinator Kevin Steele. The Tigers are fifth in the nation in scoring defense allowing just 15.6 points per game.
USC vs Penn St
Play: USC -6.5
On Sunday September 25th the USC Trojans and Penn St Nittany Lions were a combined 3-5 with visions of the Rose Bowl not even appearing in their wildest dreams. However on Selection Sunday many called for Penn St to receive a playoff berth while even more called USC the team that was playing the best football of anyone. One example of how well these two were playing is that they combined to cover 14 straight games against the spread and did so convincingly by an amazing 18 PPG! This is the tenth meeting in this series with USC leading 5-4 including their last showdown in the 2009 Rose Bowl (35-24). While this was the last Rose Bowl trip for both teams the Trojans obviously play here against UCLA every other year and they were at this site back on November 19th when they beat the Bruins 36-14.
The USC Trojans started the season 1-3 but their opener was against Alabama then after a win against Utah St they played at my then #12 defense Stanford and at my then #7 defense Utah. Most teams would go 1-3 with that schedule their first four games. The Trojans made a QB change for the Utah game and the Sam Darnold era started. Darnold started the final 9 throwing for 2,663 (68.1%) with a 26-8 ratio and finished #10 in QB rating. RB Justin Davis started the first 6 and was injured had 564 yds and 5.4 YPC but Ronald Jones stepped in and after having only 152 yards after 5 games he finished with 1,027 yards and an impressive 6.5 YPC with both available here. JJ Shuster led with 63 receptions and 781 yards. USC can also thank Thorpe winner/AA returnman Adoree? Jackson for four TD?s with a pair coming on both KR?s and PR?s. The defense has my #11 ranking as while they were #30 in yards allowed they faced FIVE of my top 22 offenses. Ten defenders started 11 or more games and with DT Zach Brenner clogging the middle yards are tough to come by.
Penn St was 2-2 and trailed Minnesota 13-3 at halftime. In OT Minny kicked a FG but one play later the Lions and parlayed that victory with a win against Maryland to be 4-2 going into their bye week. A ?white-out? win changed their destiny as they trailed Ohio St 21-7 in the 4Q but got a TD after a blocked punt and another on a blocked TD giving then their first win against a AP ranked #1 of #2 since 1990. Two games later the Lions outgained Iowa by 365 yards the week before the Hawkeyes beat Michigan and then in the regular season finale they trailed Michigan St at halftime but outscored them 35-0 in the 2H to get to the B10 Title game. Penn St trailed yet again versus Wisconsin but came back from a 28-7 deficit. Usually when a team improves down the stretch it is thanks to god health but Penn St actually started 5 different OL combos their last 5 games due to injuries. Sophomore QB Trace McSorely threw for 3,360 yards with a 25-5 ratio and while he only completed 57.5% there are reason why. McSorely led the country in yards per completions at 16.1 YPC and was second in the nation with 61 completions over 20 yards and 22 completions of 40 yards. Big Ten offensive POY Saquon Barkley rushed for 1,302 yards (5.3) and added 347 yards (15.1) receiving. Chris Godwin (795, 15.9) was the top receiver but Saeed Blacknell who had 9 receptions into the B10 Title game had 6 for 155 yds with 2 TD?s in that game. The Lions with my #19 defense lost 5 LB?s to season ending injuries this year and Brian Bell missed 4.5 games yet still finished second in tackles. No player earned first team all-conference honors but 18 players at least ? sack with a pair sharing the lead at 6.
The 4 Playoff teams have a combined record of 48-3 with two losses coming against these two foes as USC beat Washington and Penn St beat Ohio St. While the Nittany Lions are a feel good story the talent gap is too wide. First year USC head coach Clay Helton has brought a workman-like attitude to USC with the glitz and glamour now gone. That?s the type of team you need to cover as a major bowl favorite. Penn St has only faced two teams that are the same caliber of the Trojans and against the Buckeyes and Wolverines they were outgained by 436 yards and outF?d by 11. The USC football program has basically been an embarrassment with their last 5 bowls being the Holiday (2X), Las Vegas, Sun and Emerald and the cream rises to the top.
USC FUN FACT: USC has played in the Rose Bowl game during the term of every US President since Herbert Hoover in 1929.
USC Trojans 42 Penn State Nittany Lions 30
