would betting Mil on the $line make sense here? If you think they will keep it close and maybe lose by one, you'd hit twice if they do. If you are wrong on the side entirely, this would mitigate the loss.
I see your logic in taking +1.5 as this could be a see-saw close game. TV brings up a good point bout the juice though...
If I played this game, I'd take a shot on the dog outright, but for me this one's a pass...