MONDAYS SERVICE PLAYS
- Thread starter pigskin
- Start date
Billy Coleman
4* seattle
3* detroit
--
4* cleveland st
3* nc wilmington
3* utah
Ted Servansky
BOwl GOY = Virg Tech
reg play on USC
4* seattle
3* detroit
--
4* cleveland st
3* nc wilmington
3* utah
Ted Servansky
BOwl GOY = Virg Tech
reg play on USC
Top newsletter selections for Monday
STEAM SHEET
Auburn 16, V. Tech 9
GOLD SHEET
Auburn 25, V. Tech 15
SPORTS REPORTER (Best Bets and Recommended Plays)
V. Tech (+) 16, Auburn 14 (Recommended Play)
SPORTS REPORTER SUPER BEST BET GOES TOMORROW NIGHT IN THE ORANGE BOWL
NELLY'S SPORTSWIRE (5* highest play)
Auburn 23, V. Tech 13 (2*)
UNDER the total (3*)
POINTWISE (1 highest)
Auburn 27, V. Tech 13 (3)
WINNING POINTS
Auburn 23, V. Tech 20
SPORTS MEMORANDUM
V. Tech (+) over Auburn
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
Aub (-) over V. Tech by 10
THE MAX BY KEVIN O'NEAL
Auburn (-) over V. Tech by 13
STEAM SHEET
Auburn 16, V. Tech 9
GOLD SHEET
Auburn 25, V. Tech 15
SPORTS REPORTER (Best Bets and Recommended Plays)
V. Tech (+) 16, Auburn 14 (Recommended Play)
SPORTS REPORTER SUPER BEST BET GOES TOMORROW NIGHT IN THE ORANGE BOWL
NELLY'S SPORTSWIRE (5* highest play)
Auburn 23, V. Tech 13 (2*)
UNDER the total (3*)
POINTWISE (1 highest)
Auburn 27, V. Tech 13 (3)
WINNING POINTS
Auburn 23, V. Tech 20
SPORTS MEMORANDUM
V. Tech (+) over Auburn
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
Aub (-) over V. Tech by 10
THE MAX BY KEVIN O'NEAL
Auburn (-) over V. Tech by 13
Ats Lock Club Plays
CFB
3u Auburn -5 1/2
CBB
3u Utah -6
3u N Iowa -9
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Rocketman Sports:
4* Detroit Pistons, 2* New Orleans Hornets, Bowl Opinion Auburn
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CFB
3u Auburn -5 1/2
CBB
3u Utah -6
3u N Iowa -9
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Rocketman Sports:
4* Detroit Pistons, 2* New Orleans Hornets, Bowl Opinion Auburn
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PPP
1% V. Tech
1% V. Tech under
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Dr Bob - Sugar Bowl
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Sugar Bowl - Jan 3
Auburn (-6.5) 27 Virginia Tech 14
Auburn has no gripe about belonging in the National Championship Game, as they rate as the 4th best team in the nation in my ratings, but the Tigers are a very good team in all facets of the game and I’ll take them to complete their perfect season with a win over the streaking Hokies, who are riding an 8 game win streak and 3 straight spread wins. Teams that end the regular season on a roll of 3 or more consecutive spread wins are actually bad bets in their bowl game and the Hokies apply to a negative 30-61-1 ATS situation that is based on that fact. Auburn, meanwhile, applies to a 38-14 ATS major bowl situation and a 20-4 ATS subset of that angle applies. The technical analysis is not quite enough to get me on Auburn as a Best Bet unless the line comes down to -6, as those angles are worth 8 points and my math model favors the Tigers by only 5 points. Virginia Tech turned out to be much better than anticipated this season, as they rate at 0.3 yppl better than average offensively with a healthy Mike Imoh at running back. Imoh was hampered with a hamstring injury the final few games of the regular season, but he claims to be 100% for this game. Imoh and running mate Cedric Humes should have decent success running against an Auburn defense that was inconsistent defending the run this season and rates at 0.5 yards per rushing play better than average against the run, which is only slightly better than the +0.4 yprp rating of Virginia Tech’s rushing attack in the games that Imoh was healthy (he also missed Tech’s first 3 games of the season). Virginia Tech will have to be very good on the ground, since the Hokies’ modest pass attack (5.9 yards per pass play against teams that would allow only 5.7 yppp to an average offense) isn’t likely to have much success against an Auburn pass defense that rates at 1.3 yppp better than average (4.8 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppp against an average defense). The strength of the Hokies is a defense that yielded only 4.5 yards per play this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defense. That unit will be challenged by a very efficient Tigers’ attack that rates at 1.3 yppl better than average (6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average offense). Auburn has the edge on both sides of the ball, rating a 0.5 yppl edge over Virginia Tech’s offense and a 0.2 yppl edge over the Hokies’ defense. The Hokies, however, played very well against good teams this season, as their offense was 0.7 yppl better than average against good defensive teams Miami-Florida, Maryland, Georgia Tech, NC State, and USC (5.0 yppl against those teams, which would allow a combined 4.3 yppl to an average offense) while their defense held very good offensive teams USC, North Carolina, Virginia, and Miami-Florida to just 5.1 yppl (those teams would average a combined 6.5 yppl against an average defense). However, Auburn’s offense averaged 5.7 yppl against the 3 very good defensive teams that they faced – LSU, Georgia, and Alabama – who would allow a combined 4.3 yppl to an average offense. The Tigers also allowed 14 points or less in 10 of their 12 games and the two teams that scored more than 14 points (Arkansas and Tennessee) are both 0.5 yppl better than Virginia Tech’s offense. The profile analysis (how teams have performed against teams of similar caliber) would favor Auburn by just 4 points in this game, but that analysis is less accurate than using all games and the difference is only 1 point, so it’s not really too significant. Regardless, the line value favors Virginia Tech in this game by a point or two, which takes away some of the value from the situations that favor Auburn. The Tigers still have a very profitable 56.7% chance of covering at the current line of -6 ½ points and I’ll consider Auburn a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less and I have no opinion on the total.
Upgrade Auburn to a 2-Star Best Bet if they become a favorite of 6 points or less
1% V. Tech
1% V. Tech under
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Dr Bob - Sugar Bowl
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Sugar Bowl - Jan 3
Auburn (-6.5) 27 Virginia Tech 14
Auburn has no gripe about belonging in the National Championship Game, as they rate as the 4th best team in the nation in my ratings, but the Tigers are a very good team in all facets of the game and I’ll take them to complete their perfect season with a win over the streaking Hokies, who are riding an 8 game win streak and 3 straight spread wins. Teams that end the regular season on a roll of 3 or more consecutive spread wins are actually bad bets in their bowl game and the Hokies apply to a negative 30-61-1 ATS situation that is based on that fact. Auburn, meanwhile, applies to a 38-14 ATS major bowl situation and a 20-4 ATS subset of that angle applies. The technical analysis is not quite enough to get me on Auburn as a Best Bet unless the line comes down to -6, as those angles are worth 8 points and my math model favors the Tigers by only 5 points. Virginia Tech turned out to be much better than anticipated this season, as they rate at 0.3 yppl better than average offensively with a healthy Mike Imoh at running back. Imoh was hampered with a hamstring injury the final few games of the regular season, but he claims to be 100% for this game. Imoh and running mate Cedric Humes should have decent success running against an Auburn defense that was inconsistent defending the run this season and rates at 0.5 yards per rushing play better than average against the run, which is only slightly better than the +0.4 yprp rating of Virginia Tech’s rushing attack in the games that Imoh was healthy (he also missed Tech’s first 3 games of the season). Virginia Tech will have to be very good on the ground, since the Hokies’ modest pass attack (5.9 yards per pass play against teams that would allow only 5.7 yppp to an average offense) isn’t likely to have much success against an Auburn pass defense that rates at 1.3 yppp better than average (4.8 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppp against an average defense). The strength of the Hokies is a defense that yielded only 4.5 yards per play this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defense. That unit will be challenged by a very efficient Tigers’ attack that rates at 1.3 yppl better than average (6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average offense). Auburn has the edge on both sides of the ball, rating a 0.5 yppl edge over Virginia Tech’s offense and a 0.2 yppl edge over the Hokies’ defense. The Hokies, however, played very well against good teams this season, as their offense was 0.7 yppl better than average against good defensive teams Miami-Florida, Maryland, Georgia Tech, NC State, and USC (5.0 yppl against those teams, which would allow a combined 4.3 yppl to an average offense) while their defense held very good offensive teams USC, North Carolina, Virginia, and Miami-Florida to just 5.1 yppl (those teams would average a combined 6.5 yppl against an average defense). However, Auburn’s offense averaged 5.7 yppl against the 3 very good defensive teams that they faced – LSU, Georgia, and Alabama – who would allow a combined 4.3 yppl to an average offense. The Tigers also allowed 14 points or less in 10 of their 12 games and the two teams that scored more than 14 points (Arkansas and Tennessee) are both 0.5 yppl better than Virginia Tech’s offense. The profile analysis (how teams have performed against teams of similar caliber) would favor Auburn by just 4 points in this game, but that analysis is less accurate than using all games and the difference is only 1 point, so it’s not really too significant. Regardless, the line value favors Virginia Tech in this game by a point or two, which takes away some of the value from the situations that favor Auburn. The Tigers still have a very profitable 56.7% chance of covering at the current line of -6 ½ points and I’ll consider Auburn a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less and I have no opinion on the total.
Upgrade Auburn to a 2-Star Best Bet if they become a favorite of 6 points or less