I know this is a well covered topic on this forum but as we get close to football I thought it would be good to get some good ideas about different systems. please share any systems that may be useful
money management system
- Thread starter pickpro
- Start date
PinnacleSports/Simon Noble
Although much has been written on ?money management?, most of these ideas focus on larger players with $100,000+ bankrolls. In my experience, the majority of players don?t have this kind of capital and have always been neglected when it comes to money management theory.
Before you decide what your bankroll is or what risks are acceptable, you first need to make a serious evaluation: what is your goal? Is your emphasis recreational - do you bet on games to add a little excitement to your favorite sport, while hoping to win some extra cash? Or are you an aspiring sharp who hopes to move up to the big leagues one day? Depending on your objective, there are very different styles of risk management that should apply.
The bad news first? No one likes to think about worst-case scenarios, but this is where any bettor (recreational OR professional) must start. For recreational players, think in terms of a single sports season. How much are you comfortable losing during the course of the season? Naturally the goal of any bettor is not to lose this amount ? you?d obviously rather win this plus interest, but being realistic at the beginning will make your life simpler if you hit a nasty losing streak.
Assume Joe Public decides he?s willing to lose up to $1,000 during the entire baseball season. Next he must ask himself; what is the most Joe can bet and still be playing at the end of the season? Joe can always bet less, but he needs a firm ceiling on the most he should ever bet on any game during the season. The more games he wants to play, the less he should bet. A quick way to find out the ceiling is to guess how many games you will bet during the season and divide the bankroll by the square-root.
For example, if you were going to bet 100 games, the square root is 10, so Joe could risk as much as $100 per MLB game ($1,000/10). This is not to say he should risk $100 every game, but this is the most that he should ever consider betting on a single play.
Ignoring vigorish, a player has about a 1/40 chance of being down more than $1,000 after making a hundred, $100 bets. As a recreational player, you can almost ignore the vig at a reduced juice sports book like Pinnacle Sports. At Pinnacle Sportsbook we use an 8-cent line in MLB, so Joe Public would only pay about $200 in vigorish for the entire season compared to $500 at a traditional bookie using a 20-cent line.
The needs of aspiring sharp players are very different. Joe Public wants action and hopes to win, whereas most sharps could care less about the action and bet to ?beat the man? ? some for money, others for the excitement of outsmarting the bookmaker. The above strategy won?t work for someone trying to win long-term, although it will keep you out of trouble.
If you?re an aspiring sharp, you already know what your bankroll is (the amount you are prepared to lose before you would quit betting). The next question to ask is how much should you risk per play? The answer is: it depends.
The number one mistake gamblers make is overestimating their advantage. Conventional wisdom suggests never risking more than 1-3% of your bankroll on a single play. This is good advice if you are betting the NFL/NBA/MLB for example. The information out there and the volume of betting make these markets deadly accurate (unless you are playing into opening numbers early).
Instead of firing bombs on these sports, a mid-sized player (with a bankroll from $1,000-$50,000) would be better off price-shopping and promotion hustling than handicapping these giants. If you hit the bonuses, free half-points and stale numbers, you can almost guarantee a year-end profit without picking a single game.
Another mistake bettors make is being timid when hitting small markets. Whereas 1-3% risked might be a good rule for pro sports, the rule for props and niche markets should be ?How much will they take?? If you analyze in depth a prop or obscure market and think you have a 10% edge, there?s a good chance you probably do.
Similarly, college sports and areas with no large following provide great opportunities as long as you become an expert in that particular area. If you?re an expert on Portugal Liga TMN basketball or a Winter sports specialist with a strong opinion on the Men?s 1000m final in short track skating at the Olympics , your estimates of high advantages could be correct and justify 5% or higher plays.
Although much has been written on ?money management?, most of these ideas focus on larger players with $100,000+ bankrolls. In my experience, the majority of players don?t have this kind of capital and have always been neglected when it comes to money management theory.
Before you decide what your bankroll is or what risks are acceptable, you first need to make a serious evaluation: what is your goal? Is your emphasis recreational - do you bet on games to add a little excitement to your favorite sport, while hoping to win some extra cash? Or are you an aspiring sharp who hopes to move up to the big leagues one day? Depending on your objective, there are very different styles of risk management that should apply.
The bad news first? No one likes to think about worst-case scenarios, but this is where any bettor (recreational OR professional) must start. For recreational players, think in terms of a single sports season. How much are you comfortable losing during the course of the season? Naturally the goal of any bettor is not to lose this amount ? you?d obviously rather win this plus interest, but being realistic at the beginning will make your life simpler if you hit a nasty losing streak.
Assume Joe Public decides he?s willing to lose up to $1,000 during the entire baseball season. Next he must ask himself; what is the most Joe can bet and still be playing at the end of the season? Joe can always bet less, but he needs a firm ceiling on the most he should ever bet on any game during the season. The more games he wants to play, the less he should bet. A quick way to find out the ceiling is to guess how many games you will bet during the season and divide the bankroll by the square-root.
For example, if you were going to bet 100 games, the square root is 10, so Joe could risk as much as $100 per MLB game ($1,000/10). This is not to say he should risk $100 every game, but this is the most that he should ever consider betting on a single play.
Ignoring vigorish, a player has about a 1/40 chance of being down more than $1,000 after making a hundred, $100 bets. As a recreational player, you can almost ignore the vig at a reduced juice sports book like Pinnacle Sports. At Pinnacle Sportsbook we use an 8-cent line in MLB, so Joe Public would only pay about $200 in vigorish for the entire season compared to $500 at a traditional bookie using a 20-cent line.
The needs of aspiring sharp players are very different. Joe Public wants action and hopes to win, whereas most sharps could care less about the action and bet to ?beat the man? ? some for money, others for the excitement of outsmarting the bookmaker. The above strategy won?t work for someone trying to win long-term, although it will keep you out of trouble.
If you?re an aspiring sharp, you already know what your bankroll is (the amount you are prepared to lose before you would quit betting). The next question to ask is how much should you risk per play? The answer is: it depends.
The number one mistake gamblers make is overestimating their advantage. Conventional wisdom suggests never risking more than 1-3% of your bankroll on a single play. This is good advice if you are betting the NFL/NBA/MLB for example. The information out there and the volume of betting make these markets deadly accurate (unless you are playing into opening numbers early).
Instead of firing bombs on these sports, a mid-sized player (with a bankroll from $1,000-$50,000) would be better off price-shopping and promotion hustling than handicapping these giants. If you hit the bonuses, free half-points and stale numbers, you can almost guarantee a year-end profit without picking a single game.
Another mistake bettors make is being timid when hitting small markets. Whereas 1-3% risked might be a good rule for pro sports, the rule for props and niche markets should be ?How much will they take?? If you analyze in depth a prop or obscure market and think you have a 10% edge, there?s a good chance you probably do.
Similarly, college sports and areas with no large following provide great opportunities as long as you become an expert in that particular area. If you?re an expert on Portugal Liga TMN basketball or a Winter sports specialist with a strong opinion on the Men?s 1000m final in short track skating at the Olympics , your estimates of high advantages could be correct and justify 5% or higher plays.
Bottom line - Money management is a direct correlation of your confidence in handicapping.
Difficulty - It takes a LONG, LONG, LONG time to reach a level where your confident in your ability to pick the winning side with any kind of consistency.
Difficulty #2 - It also takes more than "time". One can spend countless hours mulling over the wrong stuff and this merely results in "time" wasted.
Difficulty #3 - You need to understand what you're looking for and why. Once you make this discovery, then the "time" you spend trying to piece together the handicapping puzzle is not wasted...you now advance to the plateau of "frustration".
There are about 10 levels of handicapping difficulty. So in the meantime, you may want to follow this rule of thumb:
"Minimal exposure of your bankroll and conservative wagering".
Do not waste your time trying to make a profit because you will not win. Waste your time trying to advance to the handicapping level of frustration and make minimum wagers along the way to test your theories. Once you reach frustration with your bankroll only slightly damaged, you can take pride in knowing you have gone further than most everyone else.
Difficulty - It takes a LONG, LONG, LONG time to reach a level where your confident in your ability to pick the winning side with any kind of consistency.
Difficulty #2 - It also takes more than "time". One can spend countless hours mulling over the wrong stuff and this merely results in "time" wasted.
Difficulty #3 - You need to understand what you're looking for and why. Once you make this discovery, then the "time" you spend trying to piece together the handicapping puzzle is not wasted...you now advance to the plateau of "frustration".
There are about 10 levels of handicapping difficulty. So in the meantime, you may want to follow this rule of thumb:
"Minimal exposure of your bankroll and conservative wagering".
Do not waste your time trying to make a profit because you will not win. Waste your time trying to advance to the handicapping level of frustration and make minimum wagers along the way to test your theories. Once you reach frustration with your bankroll only slightly damaged, you can take pride in knowing you have gone further than most everyone else.
