$$$ Money Mgmt $$$

[Dr Raider]

Just a short note on money management

We all lose our cool from time to time

One thing that might help is to look at the facts -

What are your chances of winning the next wager if you:
won 5 games in a row
won 10 games in a row
lost 5 games in a row
lost 10 games in a row

Exactly the same
If you win 60% of the time, your chance of winning your next bet is still 60%

 

[hello there]

It can also be said........

If you lose 60% of the time, your chance of losing your next bet is still 60%

 

[HONUS]

I don't necessarily agree.

Winning/losing at a 60% clip is an historical record and has no bearing on what you will do in the future over the long-term, let alone with the next wager. If this sounds like a mutual fund disclaimer, it is. Because the same applies to handicapping.

Over time, you want to hit a % that will make you money. With football with its -110 lines (generally), you want to hit greater than 52.5%. For baseball, it depends on your fav/dog strategy.

Anyway, I believe your chances of winning the next wager is mutually exclusive to what your record has been in the past. It is only relevant if you can accurately predict what your winning % will be in the FUTURE. And if we could do that, we would either wager a whole lot more or stop wagering at all.

 

[HONUS]

Oh, and by the way, you are right on with what I think you are trying to say. And that is, stick to a sound money management system and don't go crazy after a winning/losing streak.

My disagreement was only with the probability statement.

 

[Dr Raider]

Honus
thanks for the feedback

Yes, you are correct - the most important and difficult thing is to figure out how to get back the money you lost or to keep going forward and adding to your bankroll. As far as history repeating itself, it may make not hold water mathematically, but in sports wagering trends seem to hold up more often than not. The most recent one that makes no sense, but one that we could have cleaned up on is in the NBA playoffs, i.e., if a team is down big at the half, bet that team to cover the spread in the second half. I didn't keep track of the numbers, but I can tell you that this is a strong trend.

If you or others has any feedback on what money management is working for them, I would like to hear it. When your luck goes south, sound money management is the only thing that will bail you out.

more later

 

[topspinner]

I will probably get ripped for this, as it makes no sense logically. However, I have been gambling for over 20 years and have played thousands of hours of blackjack and craps, and I can tell you anecdotally that you win and lose in streaks. To a lesser extent this has also happened to me in sports gambling. When you get on a hot streak it seems the games fall your way more often than not.

Has anyone ever been on a super hot craps table, where the person has made many points in a row? Even though I know mathematically it should make no sense, it seems like the person makes the next point more often than not. When I play black jack, I increase my bet one unit after each win and go back to my basic bet after each loss. Playing Blackjack in this manner, I have gone from being a consistent loser to breaking even, and getting a lot of free trips and comps.

I believe Nolan commented on this before and basically said anyone who believes this kind of stuff is kidding themselves. Well, I believe it because I have lived it. I am ahead for my lifetime of gambling, going by these principles. I never chase my loses, that is the quickest way to the poor house. But when I am hot I definetly press my bets.

Anyway, would be interested in hearing others opinions on winning and losing in streaks.