Moneyline Parlay Made in Heaven

[yanno]

Parlay of the Playoffs

Parlay (-132)

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers (-457)
Event date: Sat, Jan 14, 2023, 16:35

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills (-679)
Event date: Sun, Jan 15, 2023, 13:05

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals (-388)
Event date: Sun, Jan 15, 2023, 20:15

What could possibly go wrong? :0008

 

[yyz]

That's a "Meatloaf Parlay"

Two outta three ain't paid.

:scared

 

[ldabdou]

That's a "Meatloaf Parlay"

Two outta three ain't paid.

:scared

Sooooo. You can’t leave us hangin. Seattle???

 

[yyz]

Sooooo. You can’t leave us hangin. Seattle???

No, no.

I'm just saying, from my shitty experiences, one game always seems to fuck ya!

 

[Slumdog]

I hope not yyz !!! I got in on Tuesday. Paid -118. Now this parlay is up to -152. Rolled some Georgia money into this. First bet of wknd. Now waiting on Jack to post the feather.

:00hour:toast:

 

[Slumdog]

Have to beat geno smith. Skylar Thompson. And possibly Anthony brown. As the ever so lucid Joey B would say. C’mon mannnnnnnnnn

 

[MadJack]

Imagine how many special teasers are on that same combo. If it looks too good to be true....

 

[yyz]

Imagine how many special teasers are on that same combo. If it looks too good to be true....

Be careful...........

:0003

 

[Slumdog]

I hear ya. But sometimes ya just can’t overthink it.

 

[Slumdog]

Burrow could get his knee blown out first play. Anything is possible. That’s what makes it fun. :00hour

 

[yyz]

Home teams during the wild-card round are just 17-15 since the 2004 season.

(bleacher report)



Seems like there should be more games, though.
opcorn2

 

[yanno]

And just to keep the juice down, for add-on wagers, how about a 10-point super teaser @ -130, ties push?


Baltimore Ravens - Cincinnati Bengals
Handicap – Game – NFL
Cincinnati Bengals 0 (-10 + 10 pts)

Miami Dolphins - Buffalo Bills
Handicap – Game – NFL
Buffalo Bills -3.0 (-13 + 10 pts)

Seattle Seahawks - San Francisco 49ers
Handicap – Game – NFL
San Francisco 49ers 0 (-10 + 10 pts)

No worries about the Bills laying a field goal unless something horrible happens. Dolphins are dead in the water. (Sorry for the pun.)

 

[yanno]

Home teams during the wild-card round are just 17-15 since the 2004 season.

(bleacher report)



Seems like there should be more games, though.
opcorn2

Could be, but I was reading yesterday (will post it if I run across it again), that in Wild Card games, home team favorites of 9 1/2 and up are some outrageous number like 17-0 or 17-3 or something, going back some long number of years.

 

[MadJack]

Burrow could get his knee blown out first play. Anything is possible. That’s what makes it fun. :00hour

The Ravens will not win that game.

 

[Slumdog]

The Ravens will not win that game.

Lol.


When they gave smith that 100 mill extension I thought to myself. No way Lamar is going to suit up. His blood must be boiling.

 

[MadJack]

Lol.


When they gave smith that 100 mill extension I thought to myself. No way Lamar is going to suit up. His blood must be boiling.

The problem with Lamar is he wants it all guaranteed. Ravens won't do that. Quan didn't get it all guaranteed but they did make him the highest paid LB in the NFL. Hell, for the money Lamar wants they could get 3 or 4 pro bowlers. I don't think I would pay him either. I think BAL should build a great defense like they had in 2000. That team only gave up 10 points per game average through 16 games. Without Ed Reed. Take it from there.

 

[Slumdog]

I remember. defense won it with dilfer.

I hear you

 

[MadJack]

they won 6 games that year without scoring an offensive TD.

 

[yanno]

Some Cut and Paste:

--------------------------------------

Since that 2010 Seahawks win in the famous "Beast Quake" game, double-digit underdogs are just 1-12 straight up.

Again using the "Beast Quake" game as a cutoff point, that's when big underdogs started struggling to even cover the spread.

Starting in the 2010 divisional round, there have been 13 double-digit underdogs. Those teams are 2-11 against the spread. Only the Titans at the end of the 2019 season pulled off a win. In the 12 other games the average margin of victory is 17.4 points for the favorites. The only time a double-digit underdog has covered and not won since the 2011 wild-card round was Washington, losing 31-23 as a 10-point underdog against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the wild-card round at the end of the 2020 season. Taylor Heinicke was pressed into starting for Washington due to injuries and helped keep his team in the game.

If there's a reason for the shift with double-digit underdogs' success, it could be that oddsmakers are a little more careful with the biggest point spreads. They only save it for lopsided matchups that truly deserve those huge spreads, and therefore we won't see a lot of lively double-digit underdogs.

Or perhaps it's just a small sample of 13 games and we'll see a shift starting this week. Just know that if you're taking the Dolphins or Seahawks this week, recent history isn't on your side.

------------------------------------
(per Yahoo Sports) You can now add the Ravens to the Dolphins and Seahawks.

 

[yanno]

Maybe we should also add that this success for big favs is a bit counter intuitive. People kinda expect playoff games to be close, because so much is at stake. But it might be a question of motivation? In the regular season, in a runaway games, the team ahead is likely to back off somewhat, for obvious reasons. But this is not so in the playoffs.