motor city bowl ......

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gman2

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take it entirely for what its worth but this is how i see this one tonight.

throw the coaching angle out the window. if you like central michigan, dont back off because kelly isnt there anymore. quinn has been a part of his staff for almost 20 years and knows the system inside and out. the chips offense will be fine. quinn was with kelly at grand valley when they were putting together offenses that averaged 45+ ppg and 550+ total offense/game and winning a handful of gliac titles and national championships.

the one thing that SHOULD be a concern is the way the mac teams have been underperforming in recent motor city bowls.

if you leave marshall out of the equation, mac teams are 1-4 ATS and are allowing 33.6 ppg in the MCB.

i really think the mac needs to re-examine their affiliation with this bowl because it no longer serves as a reward for the conference champ. when lesser mac teams are playing games in san diego, mobile, and toronto, the novelty of playing in detroit seems to be gone after the mac championship in late november. especially when the opponent is from the sun belt. the mac champ should have their choice of destinations as far as the mac tie-ins go. the past few years, the mac teams have come out flat in this game and have found themselves playing from behind.

proximity obviously favors the chips tonight. this is the first time the motor city bowl has ever had a team from michigan playing in the game and ticket sales are expected to reflect that. so in this respect, playing in detroit is a good thing for the central michigan. normally cmu has a pretty apathetic fan base and thats part of the reason kelly was so eager to jump ship to a power conference school (much the same way meyer left bowling green because of lack of committment and funding for the football program). but for this game, cmich should have a strong edge in the stands.

looking for an interesting stat? in the five non-marshall motor city bowls (marshall played in the first 4 from '97-'00 and the last 5 have been non-marshall)

the mac has been outscored 38-9 in the first quarter of the last 5 MCBs and hasnt scored a 1q touchdown in any of those.

thats not to suggest any 1q play on/against cmu or on/against mtsu.

the point, rather, is that the mac teams have a way of coming out flat early on before waking up and playing football. so that could be a concern if youre taking a strong stance with cmu minus more than a touchdown. the last thing you want is for cmu to be down early and start wondering if they can be the same team without kelly.

i tend to think they outclass mtsu enough to buck the recent history of mac struggles in this game and win from start to finish. their offense is too good and mtsu hasnt seen an offense this explosive (nor sophisticated) during sun belt play. when the raiders did step out of conference to face power conference teams, they were blasted. it also shouldnt be ignored that all 4 of cmu's losses were to bowl teams (michigan, boston college, kentucky, northern illinois). to be fair, middle tennessee also lost all 5 of their games to bowl teams (maryland, oklahoma, troy, louisville, south carolina). but cmich was far more competitive against the big boys.
 
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BGFalcon

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I agree with your analysis. Been watching the line slowly creep down from 11 to 7 -120 earlier today. It is now going back up. As long as CMU doesn't get off to a bad start I think they lay the wood to MTSU. Blue Raiders pissed away an outright conference title and haven't played well in a month. This has the potential to get messy.

I'm seeing the total get down to 51 with reduced juice. If it gets to 50, I'm going to play a little on the over.
 

Wilson

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the one thing that SHOULD be a concern is the way the mac teams have been underperforming in recent motor city bowls.

if you leave marshall out of the equation, mac teams are 1-4 ATS and are allowing 33.6 ppg in the MCB.


I would probably attribute that to the opponent just being the better team.

Nice write up and thanks for your time with typing so many words.
 
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gman2

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middle tennessee 1h team total over 10.5

the questions i have about cmu arent on the offensive side of the ball. theyre on the defensive side of it. expecting the blue raiders to get on the scoreboard early before cmich settles in and takes control of the game

really feel this is an 'mtsu early, cmu late' kind of game. seeing this one close in the 1h before cmich opens it up after halftime.
 
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