Personally, Id be tempted to play the over 21m prop, as I see that a good wager at a reasonable price like -115 or -125. Anything from 19-24 is expected. Not a -200 chalk type of bet.
Passing on the h2h matchup with HGTOG. Think XXX will get out to a fast start on Friday, then fade due to bad word of mouth, whereas I expect the other to be more solid over 3 days. Here's one snippet of a XXX review I came across.
"OK you don't expect a sequel to 2002's brainless XXX to be an action masterwork, but this is so preposterous that it feels like an overblown spoof of the original."
Passing on the bet this. Thanks again for the Kung Fu cash last week.