just wanted to thank u guys for all your hard work and selections--and jokes!!!--keep up the great cappin--dont post much but i appreciate all the time and effort u guys put in--by the way i am going barbaro in the derby--thinkin bro derek and steppenwolfer tri --any pointers or picks for superfecta ? Goin outta town and will not have comp access from friday on--if u guys could give some expertise by then i would appreciate it--thanks again for all your time and effort
murph / axle
- Thread starter mosquito
- Start date
Will be glad to help, however, I am sure you understand that the Kentucky Derby is probably one of the hardest races to cap. You have your obvious contenders and improving 3 year olds that can jump up and do it.
What sucks for us players is that our friends and acquaintances who know we play the ponies will all ask us for a Derby winner, on one of the toughest races of the year?If we don?t hit it, which is the most likely of scenarios, we?re bums. :mj07:
I?ll try to post a few ideas later in the week.
Axle
What sucks for us players is that our friends and acquaintances who know we play the ponies will all ask us for a Derby winner, on one of the toughest races of the year?If we don?t hit it, which is the most likely of scenarios, we?re bums. :mj07:
I?ll try to post a few ideas later in the week.
Axle
regarding the derby, you said it axle... forget breeders cup day, the keeneland meetings, del mar, etc... my colleagues, friends, and family want the derby winner - period. what a pain derby day is... honestly, ill pick one horse and trifecta wheel it on top... like i assume with most, handicapping other tracks/races will offer much better data, shorter fields, longer PP's to evaluate, etc...
right now, its point determined on top for me.... L-O-V-E the pedigree. imo, this is baffets best.
not a big stretch of a comment here but, speed will not hold. these young'in's going two turns at 1 1/4 - no way. this track aint front speed biased, especially at this distance. these horses are too young to change running styles. if its "all out", forget the horse(s). if an upper 21 or low/mid 22 first .25 is posted - those putting it down will be cooked. looking forward to seeing how churchill plays in the days running up to the race.
right now, its point determined on top for me.... L-O-V-E the pedigree. imo, this is baffets best.
not a big stretch of a comment here but, speed will not hold. these young'in's going two turns at 1 1/4 - no way. this track aint front speed biased, especially at this distance. these horses are too young to change running styles. if its "all out", forget the horse(s). if an upper 21 or low/mid 22 first .25 is posted - those putting it down will be cooked. looking forward to seeing how churchill plays in the days running up to the race.
Mosquito, that's priceless. A small dissertation here. My favoritists are Sweetnorthensaint & Lawyer Ron. However, as Axle stated, there are the Obvious and there are the Contenders, Os & Cs.
It is agreed that there will be a blistering pace setting up a closer. I've watched most of the Preps where the goal is to make enough purse $$ to get entered. At no time did I see an all out run for the wire, meaning, they could probably run all day.
So, who or how do we wager. Let me typecast.
Even to 3/1 - Obvious(O), 7/2 to 8/1 Contender(C), 9/1 to 18/1 Reasonable(R)
A $40 Win bet on one of O's pays, let's say $8.00 flat = $160 gross - your $40 - $20 to get you around the OTB etc. you've netted a 100.
A $4-4 on 5 R's pays, let's say $22-12-6 =40X2=80-20, nets $60.
One of the other 4 places, Ok a little more. My chance of winning are considerably less but I recently bet a horse @ 12/1 that went off 45/1 and won and 15 minutes of fame was mine. Of course if you have a bookie or bet on the net, that just alters your #s.
There will be lots of good advice this week and all free. I'll have 4(R's) by Fri - I usually go to Del Mar.
It is agreed that there will be a blistering pace setting up a closer. I've watched most of the Preps where the goal is to make enough purse $$ to get entered. At no time did I see an all out run for the wire, meaning, they could probably run all day.
So, who or how do we wager. Let me typecast.
Even to 3/1 - Obvious(O), 7/2 to 8/1 Contender(C), 9/1 to 18/1 Reasonable(R)
A $40 Win bet on one of O's pays, let's say $8.00 flat = $160 gross - your $40 - $20 to get you around the OTB etc. you've netted a 100.
A $4-4 on 5 R's pays, let's say $22-12-6 =40X2=80-20, nets $60.
One of the other 4 places, Ok a little more. My chance of winning are considerably less but I recently bet a horse @ 12/1 that went off 45/1 and won and 15 minutes of fame was mine. Of course if you have a bookie or bet on the net, that just alters your #s.
There will be lots of good advice this week and all free. I'll have 4(R's) by Fri - I usually go to Del Mar.
re: sweetnorthernsaint... i live in chicago and was at hawthorne for the IL derby. the field for the race wasnt spectacular, ala war emblem, but, the nice thing was how this horse went the distance and how he handled the very long hawthorne stretch, which is incredibly relevant. the m/l on that horse, that day was 5/1 and he went off at 8/5. no matter but, he ran like 8/5. his race was tactical and he was well placed throughout. kent put him where he needed to be and the horse was professional. there was nothing "green" in his run. after marcus hersch spoke with kent, i was next in line. of course, he was beeming. so, why did he miss yesterday mornings workout??? that was odd.... anyway, the truly up and coming milkitmick, turf horse, was running the same day in CA and i asked kent about that horse (his mount given up to flores)... with no owners or trainers around, all he wanted to talk about was this horse. seems like an "of course" but, i bought it. there was also talk about skipping the derby with this horse and waiting for the next crown stop but, he's at churchill. obviously, again, the horse came out of the race just fine. i dont see a "bounce" in the derby. he won handily down the stretch and didnt have to "burn" through a final 1/6 or 1/16th battle. this horse has the run in him. i hope, believe that kent will keep the mount. more confidence in him than borel who worked him yesterday.
if i can get 10/1 +, he's a to win factor. anything less, exotics - FOR SURE!
if i can get 10/1 +, he's a to win factor. anything less, exotics - FOR SURE!
Good stuff Dan.
I have to friggin' work that day, but I be sneaking :look: a few plays over the net...
I have to friggin' work that day, but I be sneaking :look: a few plays over the net...
