Music City Championship

[Stanley]

Outright plays (2 units):

Bruce Fleisher to win 16/1 e.w. @ Bet365 and Stan James
Wouldn't have looked at Fleisher over a month ago, but two top-3 finishes later and he looks like he could win again this year. This is a course on which he has won (1999) and has finished in the top-10 on all four occasions with three of them being in the top-3. It all points to another good week from Fleisher.

Des Smyth to win 16/1 e.w. @ William Hill and Stan James
Smyth can't claim to have any course form, but he is improving each week and getting ever closer to his maiden Tour win. His last five finishes have been 50th, 20th, 10th, 6th and 3rd so let's hope that trend continues. He is certainly capable of winning in this company and with 13 winners in 13 events this year, he certainly has a good claim to be next in line.

D.A. Weibring to win 25/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
A Weibring win would also keep up the trend of one-time winners this season. This will be his first Seniors event and a win would follow in the footsteps of Bobby Wadkins who was the last player to win on his Tour debut (2001 Long Island Classic). He has played little in 2003, but did make the cut in the Heritage Classic last month against a very strong field and there are few in this field who would be able to achieve that. He may take some time to fully adjust to this Tour, but like many before him, his strongest early showing may be his first.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (2 units unless stated):

Tom Jenkins to beat Dave Barr -111 @ Centrebet
Twice a top-3 finisher here in the last five years and already a winner this year, Jenkins was on the shortlist for the outright market this week at 33/1. Passed over him on that account, but will certainly side with him against a player who has yet to play at Springhouse and against whom he has a 7-2-0 h2h over the past three months.

Seiji Ebihara to beat Joe Inman -130 @ Five Dimes [6 units]
While Ebihara has yet to play this course, Inman has yet to finish in the top-30 in four attempts so his experience is hardly an advantage this week. As far current form, then Inman's best finish of the year (11 starts) has been 30th, whereas Ebihara finished 5th in his last event. Quite a difference between the two and it is no surprise that Ebihara has a decisive h2h lead.

Gil Morgan to beat Bruce Fleisher -111 @ Centrebet
Few can better Fleisher's course form, but Morgan can. In six visits, he has won this event twice and never finished outside the top-5. Like Jenkins, he was on the shortlist for the outrights (16/1) and omitted only for a failure to finish in the top-10 in his last four events. His worst finish this season, though, has only been 24th so given his course form, this looks a worthy play in its own right apart from being a hedge play on one of the outrights. Also available at similar odds, but ties lose, at SkyBet and BetandWin.

Hale Irwin to beat Gil Morgan -170 @ Five Dimes [4 units]
Morgan would have given Irwin a good match a couple of months ago, but already mentioned, his form has dipped of late and he has only finished ahead of Irwin once in the last three months. Irwin can also boast impressive course form and is a worthy favourite for the title, though his odds were too low for the outright market.


1st round play (2 units):

Seiji Ebihara to beat Joe Inman -120 @ Five Dimes

 

[Clive]

That Ebihara looks a good match...don't know what Inman has done to get himself featured so prominently in markets...25/1 outright at Hills...mind you, having watched Ebihara in Ireland this week, he needs to sort his putting out if he is ever to win in the US...

My outrights..

Tom Jenkins 40/1
Rodger Davis 50/1
Bruce Fleisher 16/1

Morgan would be of interest at 20/1, but there are concerns over the state of his back...

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Will try an outright this week. 0 for 5 so far this year
Not much doing in way of place wagers on this tour as you have to go 15 deep at 5 Dimes before you get 6/1 however did find one @ SIA
to place (top4) Davis 10/1

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Des Smyth(14/1) for 0.60* e.w. @ Bet365
Last week Smyth showed the most game I've seen from him for 54 holes this year. While I expect him to build on that form this week, the late Friday tee time and the strong field greatly diminish his prospects for emerging on top.

Jay Sigel(80/1) for 0.50* @ Bet365
I won't dismiss his preparation and prospects that lightly in the run up to the Senior PGA Championship at Aronimink.

GL

 

[Stanley]

1st round update: 0-1-0; -2.40 units

Ebihara/Inman LOST by 3

2nd round plays (2 units unless stated):

Jose Maria Canizares to beat Pat McDonald -135 @ Five Dimes
Jim Thorpe to beat Joe Inman -127 @ Five Dimes [6 units]

 

[Stanley]

2nd round update: 2-0-0; +8.00 units

Canizares/McDonald WON by 8
Thorpe/Inman WON by 4

3rd round play (2 units):

Dave Stockton to beat J.C. Snead -120 @ Five Dimes

 

[Stanley]

3rd round update: 1-0-0; +2.00 units

Stockton/Snead WON by 6

Final update:

Matchups: 3-1-0; +9.78 units

Jenkins/Barr WON by 7
Ebihara/Inman WON by 1
Morgan/Fleisher LOST by 8
Irwin/Morgan WON by 12

18-holes: 3-1; +7.60 units

Outrights: 0-3; -6.00 units

Fleisher 16th
Smyth 22nd
Weibring 31st

Finally got the 2003 Champions Tour record into the black! The matchups are now in profit - thanks largely to a very close win on the max play - and the 18-hole plays continue to be very profitable. Just can't pick a winner of an event though! All three selections had a good final day, but little else this week. At a loss to explain why Champions Tour outrights have been the most profitable plays in each of the last two years and is easily the biggest loss-maker this year.

Champions Tour ytd
Matchups: 35-24; +6.09 units
18-holes: 22-10; +27.20 units
Outrights: 9-33; -32.35 units

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

drat drat and double drat. Not only can I not get these beards outrights in black I am still skunked. Look at bout end of 1st and he's in 2nd look back at finish and 8th
outrights Davis 8th
Week - 1 unit ytd -6 units