my GOY

[Woizeee]

I know my record has not been sharp at all and literally near crap but im sorry, Uconn is too well coached to look ahead to lose to BYU.. I am betting 75% of my account on Uconn ML... I LOVE Uconn -4 but I think that may some sort of trap but im taking Uconn ML for 75% of my bankroll unless I see Gman, NB, or Thunder have a HUGE play on BYU... I feel like this is as close to a lock as it gets.... BYU cant handle Okafor down low and Uconn's team speed is just too much....

Uconn ML is the play!!

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Play anyway that you want, but . . .

You've worked all year to have the bankroll that you have now and you're gonna throw 75% of your bankroll on an ML fav? A fifth seed favorite at that? History has shown that these games are decided by factors that are not easily capped. No matter how many mismatch deficiencies a team has against it, teams rise to the occassion at an alarming rate if you back favs.

Good Luck, whatever you decide to do, but there's certainly better plans for making money in the tourney.

 

[Woizeee]

I just looked at BYU's schedule and wow they had a few more nice wins then I thought.. they won @ASU, they won @ kansas st, played ok st tough but still.. Other than ASU none of those teams had a big man like Okafor... Uconn it is!!

 

[Woizeee]

Bobby blue chip you bring up soem good pts... Every year atleast 1 #5 seed loses and $hit it could be uconn this yr, but i really dont see it. Uconn is playing great ball but you are correct I am going to bring down the % on this play to something like 30% of my bankroll I think... I still love the play but UPSETS are like night and day in the tourney...

 

[Freedom Fighter]

Reports say BYU could be switching regions because in their region if they made it to the elite 8 they'd have to play on Sunday which is against their religious beliefs. Talk has been switching them and Weber St.

 

[Woizeee]

After getting some feedback, I am going to lighthen the play. It would be plain dumb to toss that much $$ on Uconn.. Thats why I am a newbie and I got carried away when I saw that line and wanted to pound Ucon... many crazy things happen in the tourney and the game is more of a "home" game for BYU. I am still going to play Uconn ML for a nice size but not near as large as I once had planned...

 

[gman2]

woizee:

appreciate the fact that you respect my capping enough to let it impact your decision-making. i replied in my thread to your question on uconn as well.

in a nutshell- while i wouldnt suggest over-exposing yourself on just one game, because anything can happen and its a long season, or even a long tournament for that matter- i really cant fault you for thinking uconn wins straight up.

theres a handful of games where lower seeds will likely win the game straight up, and theres a handful of games where a chalk player might feel a favorite is "too good to be true" but in this particular case, uconn doesnt strike me as "too good to be true"

basically what im saying:

1) im not suggesting you go crazy on any play. (be smart)

but having said that,

2) uconn wouldnt be the worst choice to make a moneyline play on.

just be smart with your money. and (if you play them) go huskies!

 

[Woizeee]

Gman thanks again for the information. I agree with you and I too see Uconn winning this one, but BYU will defin. not be a push over. I see other #5 seeds (i.e. ND who plays no D and has been falling as of late getting exposed) but Uconn is solid on both offense and defense (when okafor stays out of foul trouble). BYU is solid but I just dont think they are athletic enough to play with Uconn here..

Also liking Weber st (+7), Holy Cross (+11.5), Duke 1st half (-7)

thoughts??

Thanks in advance for any reply...

Woizeee

 

[Woizeee]

Gman, I just read your write ups for the games I posted on your thread... Good stuff!!

thanks!

 

[freelancc]

i like UConn as well... for at least 2 units..

 

[AR182]

BobbyBlueChip & gman2,

Very good posts !